Quakertown needs snow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What I don't get is that the HRRR keeps the 925mb 0C line east of the Delaware River throughout the storm. So why is it still reducing the snow amounts so drastically? I suppose there's a mini warm layer around 950mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RkTec Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Very light snow started here about 20 minutes ago. Temperature is at 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 What I don't get is that the HRRR keeps the 925mb 0C line east of the Delaware River throughout the storm. So why is it still reducing the snow amounts so drastically? I suppose there's a mini warm layer around 950mb? im not sure how much snow it shows, but looking at that prob surface issues with temps around frz or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 WTF is the HRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 WTF is the HRR? short range model that i believe is taking over for the ruc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 btw, temp continues to climb up to 34.1, expecting about 1.5-2 inches here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Very light pixie dust type of snow here. Enough for a light dusting so far. It would probably be a moderate snow if we had decent sized dendrites though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Very light pixie dust type of snow here. Enough for a light dusting so far. It would probably be a moderate snow if we had decent sized dendrites though. Yes, I'm starting to wonder if we'll see these 3-6" forecasts, if anything they'll be closer to 3". Ratios aren't good right now and the radar doesn't look impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 btw, temp continues to climb up to 34.1, expecting about 1.5-2 inches here really? I'm at 31.7° here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yes, I'm starting to wonder if we'll see these 3-6" forecasts, if anything they'll be closer to 3". Ratios aren't good right now and the radar doesn't look impressive. We need the intensity to pick up. It might, since there's heavier echos out past Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philadelphia Wx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I read that Mike DeFino says that Philadelphia will get 4-8". Is that true? I think more like 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 im not normally a negative nancy, but I have a feeling we will see a rain/snow mix and no accumulation here in PHL....it will be interesting to watch in any event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 29.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philadelphia Wx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 im not normally a negative nancy, but I have a feeling we will see a rain/snow mix and no accumulation here in PHL....it will be interesting to watch in any event! Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yes, I'm starting to wonder if we'll see these 3-6" forecasts, if anything they'll be closer to 3". Ratios aren't good right now and the radar doesn't look impressive. you have an odd way of calling a bust early before the event really gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Very light steady Snow started about 1/2 hour ago,just a coating...temp.'s had steadily fallen from mid 20's late afternoon to about 18...just before the Snow, temp.jumped to 22.5 and that's the temp when. the Snow started... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 im not normally a negative nancy, but I have a feeling we will see a rain/snow mix and no accumulation here in PHL....it will be interesting to watch in any event! those rapid update models are sure making the temp profiles interesting...looking at their reflectivity outputs you'd think we'd get 3" no problem, but that doesn't appear to be the case...we'll see how it goes with the heavier precip but I too think we get some mixing with perhaps an inch or two once the low moves past us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 WTF is the HRR? It's the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model, it's supposed to take over for the RUC sometime soon (I thought I heard summer at one point) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The pixie dust has reached Palmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Secondary trying to form Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 24.1 here. No flurries yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 23/19 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 31/21 here, waiting til after midnight for anything of importance in this neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Up a degree to 35.1 with light SE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 How about we actually let the coastal form first before we start calling bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I have to admit the radar is not looking too impressive up here. It has the tail going on suggest a Gulf tap, but I don't think it will really help a lot until the storm is past us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philadelphia Wx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 "NO REASON IS SEEN TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME...SO THEADVISORIES WILL BE LEFT INTACT AND NOT UPGRADED TO WARNINGS.HOWEVER...IT COULD BE A TRICKY SITUATION FOR THE NORTHERN SECTIONSOF THE LOWER 4 INCH WARNING CRITERIA AREA...NAMELY AROUNDPHILADELPHIA AND JUST SOUTH OF I-195 IN NEW JERSEY...SINCE SNOWAMOUNTS MAY APPROACH 4 INCHES. THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY HAVE TO MAKEQUICK RUNNING ADJUSTMENTS OVERNIGHT WITH A LOW LEAD TIME WARNINGIF WARNING AMOUNTS ARE NEARED. THE SAME HOLDS TRUE FOR FARNORTHERN AREAS WHICH MAY REACH NEAR 6 INCHES." From Mount Holly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 21z SREF mean says don't worry, everything is still on track. And FYI, the radar was SUPPOSED to look this way. Stop calling bust before the event starts. Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Steady light snow has begun to fall at ABE airport. This is going to be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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