LVblizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Maybe, just maybe the "bullseye" stripe travels I-78 from eastern PA into northern Jersey, right through ABE You just described today's SUNY MM5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 You just described today's SUNY MM5. Yeah it may be on to something, I hope it is for people up your way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Maybe, just maybe the "bullseye" stripe travels I-78 from eastern PA into northern Jersey, right through ABE You just described today's SUNY MM5. I don't usually ask this, but does that get into eastern Schuylkill, or does it stay south and east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I don't usually ask this, but does that get into eastern Schuylkill, or does it stay south and east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Anybody notice that all models have the heaviest precip in the wrong area currently. RUC and HRRR has the heaviest in SE Ohio, but radar shows NE Arkansas and SE Tennessee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The HRRR from 2 hours ago is already busting too far north with the position of the low comparing it to the 21z SPC mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 18z GFS has .25"+ from Philly north, looks like LV/Poconos through N NJ and NYC is the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The HRRR from 2 hours ago is already busting too far north with the position of the low comparing it to the 21z SPC mesoanalysis. The problem isn't so much now, but when the 500mb trough turns negative and the low begins to develop over C PA in response. I'm not the most meteorologically savvy, but I don't see why the HRRR/RR/RUC depictions can't/wont' happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 18z GFS has .25"+ from Philly north, looks like LV/Poconos through N NJ and NYC is the bullseye. LOL, NOW we're in the bullseye. Now that it's a minor event. 3-6 with isolated 6+. Agree with no warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 LOL, NOW we're in the bullseye. Now that it's a minor event. 3-6 with isolated 6+. Agree with no warnings. I thought the same thing but didn't have the courage to post it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow. Just put the dog out and noticed we have clear blue skies at the moment. Hardly a cloud to be seen. Perhaps a bit of radiational cooling prior to the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 both rr and hrrr coming in cooler for philly..both near 2-3" when before they were showing 1" or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 both rr and hrrr coming in cooler for philly..both near 2-3" when before they were showing 1" or less MT. Holly AFD "WE ARE FAVORING THE MILDER BOUNDARY LAYER TYPE AIRMASS THAT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ONGOING THERMAL TRENDS." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 For what it's worth, CTP bumped totals up a notch. Went from 2-5 to 3-7 in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well it's 34.7 here in Cape May and the wet bulb is below freezing. So we will see what happenes. We are down 2 degrees in the past 90 minutes. I am a little surprised at the zero accumulation forecast by nws. We are down to just old snow piles and drifts, so no big deal anyway. Not looking forward to my drive to NYC tomorrow. At least I don't leave until the afternoon. Think the roads will be okay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 LOL, NOW we're in the bullseye. Now that it's a minor event. 3-6 with isolated 6+. Agree with no warnings. +1 4" is a solid snowfall. It's no 12"+ with blizzard conditions like those to our east had, but I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well it's 34.7 here in Cape May and the wet bulb is below freezing. So we will see what happenes. We are down 2 degrees in the past 90 minutes. I am a little surprised at the zero accumulation forecast by nws. We are down to just old snow piles and drifts, so no big deal anyway. Not looking forward to my drive to NYC tomorrow. At least I don't leave until the afternoon. Think the roads will be okay? If they take care of the parkway as well as the turnpike, then it should be fine. But I've never seen the parkway in a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Light snow just started here, temp 30.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 hrrr/rr pretty much running around with 1-3" for philly with very marginal temps on most runs...we'll see how it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 hrrr/rr pretty much running around with 1-3" for philly with very marginal temps on most runs...we'll see how it goes it makes sense, the 925 mb low just goes over or just north, bringing that 0 line at that level touching phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Snow has already begun...a little earlier than I thought (Which means it will end earlier as well, meh...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Snow has already begun...a little earlier than I thought (Which means it will end earlier as well, meh...) Not necessarily. With guidance bumping coastal development further north and deepening the low quicker, I don't think that's necessarily true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think Mt. Holly has the right idea with around 3 inches for philly. I do think this will depend on elevation in the philly area and those with above 400 ft elevation have a shot at more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think Mt. Holly has the right idea with around 3 inches for philly. I do think this will depend on elevation in the philly area and those with above 400 ft elevation have a shot at more. Lets just say that I am perfectly fine with 3 inches, might be just enough to get my wife a 2 hour delay at her work, and allow me to get this all cleared up off the sidewalk and driveway and then be on my merry way to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If they take care of the parkway as well as the turnpike, then it should be fine. But I've never seen the parkway in a snowstorm. Actually the GS Parkway is usually well treated during a snow event. At least we get something for out high toll rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If they take care of the parkway as well as the turnpike, then it should be fine. But I've never seen the parkway in a snowstorm. It's not good, when AC had that 6-7 inch snowfall two saturdays ago, I was stuck driving from belmar to AC on the parkway, and there were NO trucks out, it was 20 mph white knuckling all the way from new gretna to Atlantic City! In tire tracks and watching cars literally slide off all around me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Actually the GS Parkway is usually well treated during a snow event. At least we get something for out high toll rates. It wasn't two weeks ago. It sucked. Plain and simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It wasn't two weeks ago. It sucked. Plain and simple. That's a bummer. The wife, kid and I drove almost the whole length of it from mile 142 to 0 (Cape May) Boxing Day 2010 and things were all in all good. We did leave before the height of the snow, however. I think that Sat snow you mentioned caught many by surprise. ( Not to make excuses for the Pky) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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