tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 gfs indiv ens member forecast total qpf for the gfs indiv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Ahh... it is nice and calm in here. I hope it stays that way. Does anyone think there is a good shot at widespread single digit temps for lows this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 12:07 AM, daxx said: Ahh... it is nice and calm in here. I hope it stays that way. Does anyone think there is a good shot at widespread single digit temps for lows this weekend? Yes, on Saturday morning, especially with the radiational cooling help from the snow. PHL has less of a chance, but NXX/PTW/RDG/MQS/MIV/etc should all get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Alright. What is the skinny on this? I am booked into Allentown tomorrow and know I will beat the storm but what is the ETA on the snowfall into the Valley? Before midnight or after? I am pumped that I will be able to give frozen precip obs tomorrow night with you all. Currently 67 and Mostly Cloudy at my current location:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 gfs extracted data has the coldest morn monday, with 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 12:11 AM, am19psu said: Yes, on Saturday morning, especially with the radiational cooling help from the snow. PHL has less of a chance, but NXX/PTW/RDG/MQS/MIV/etc should all get there. The cold has been almost non stop this winter, but it just has not been extreme cold. To me there is nothing like having snow on the ground, and bitter cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Buffkit for 18z runs nam phl 3.7 pne 4.3 ilg 3.6 miv 3.7 abe 4.2 rdg 4.2 ttn 4.2 acy 3.6 gfs phl 4.9 pne 4.4 ilg 4.2 miv 4.8 abe 3.9 rdg 4.2 ttn 4.4 acy 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 12:35 AM, tombo82685 said: Buffkit for 18z runs nam phl 3.7 pne 4.3 ilg 3.6 miv 3.7 abe 4.2 rdg 4.2 ttn 4.2 acy 3.6 gfs phl 4.9 pne 4.4 ilg 4.2 miv 4.8 abe 3.9 rdg 4.2 ttn 4.4 acy 1.5 Thats a nice snowfall, hopefully back this way it is close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 12:35 AM, tombo82685 said: Buffkit for 18z runs nam phl 3.7 pne 4.3 ilg 3.6 miv 3.7 abe 4.2 rdg 4.2 ttn 4.2 acy 3.6 gfs phl 4.9 pne 4.4 ilg 4.2 miv 4.8 abe 3.9 rdg 4.2 ttn 4.4 acy 1.5 tombo - any chance you could add a location or two from Central/North Jersey? Maybe somewhere like New Brunswick, Morristown, Clinton (not sure if they have to be airport locations - if so, I assume there are some near those spots)? Thanks, in advance - and thanks for your usual, awesome play-by-play in these threads - always look forward to your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 precip looks good at this point. building some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 nice view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 1:30 AM, Quakertown needs snow said: nice view Is it just me or does the storm look like its moving really fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 21z sref paint .25 plus qpf over the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 1:41 AM, Storm Clouds said: Is it just me or does the storm look like its moving really fast? What storm? There's no surface low east of Texas...if you mean that it appears moisture is streaming eastward, that was always supposed to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 just fyi, these 0z runs will have full data on the northern stream. so their may be changes for the better or worse with the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 nam looks about the same so far, may be a hair more amplified through 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 looks like the surface qpf reflection is a little more anemic than 18z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 1:41 AM, Storm Clouds said: Is it just me or does the storm look like its moving really fast? low is in NM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 like most of the models have trended today, its leaving the energy back out west and not bringing it out fully thus missing the phase. Though we should get the northern stream moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 1:26 AM, Quakertown needs snow said: precip looks good at this point. building some. It's weird how the precip looks so robust right now, but is progged to die out quickly and turn into a minor event. The I-70 corridor is getting absolutely hammered in Missouri, and yet the models all dampen that initial wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 looks like .1-.15 for phl this run... more further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 2:12 AM, tombo82685 said: looks like .1-.15 for phl this run... more further north. inline with the recent runs of the european model the past few days. NAM has gone from a 6-10 inch dump to 1-3 inches in 18 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 its nothing more than an awkward looking cold front on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 2:15 AM, Yes_Probably_Maybe_No said: its nothing more than an awkward looking cold front on the NAM Glorified cold front. Sorta like a cold front at any time of the year with a nice line of showers ahead of it and clearing skies behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 1-3 inches of snow is still good. Freshens things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 2:15 AM, Yes_Probably_Maybe_No said: its nothing more than an awkward looking cold front on the NAM funny thing is that posters were killing local tv mets the past few days for calling this event a cold front. Comments were this is a phased big ticket item by the usual talking heads wtf is wrong with these people Hopefully the GFS comes in with a little more juice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 2:15 AM, Yes_Probably_Maybe_No said: its nothing more than an awkward looking cold front on the NAM On 1/20/2011 at 2:17 AM, LMolineuxLM1 said: Glorified cold front. Sorta like a cold front at any time of the year with a nice line of showers ahead of it and clearing skies behind it. would you rather have sun with a few clouds, temp around freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 2:20 AM, tombo82685 said: would you rather have sun with a few clouds, temp around freezing? Not bitching or saying negative things, just a statement. Nothing meant in a bad way from my post. But no i'd like to stick away from the sun and a few clouds type of thing. That we can have any day of the year snow we can only have for a limited time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 2:20 AM, tombo82685 said: would you rather have sun with a few clouds, temp around freezing? yes since I will have to drive in this nuisance event if I were home, I have no problem with snow falling but we still have another day to make the low QPF final Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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