tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Hopefully it isn't to early for this, but seems like a 2-4 ordeal with some spots maybe getting 5 for this thurs/friday system...Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 qpf for phl nam .23 gfs .25-.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 rgem 18Z has "roughly" 6mm-8mm in our area with the event......0.24"-0.32" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I think 2-4" is a solid guess at this point, some places fall an inch below or an inch above that range in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Hurricane going with 2-4 for our area ... sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Hurricane going with 2-4 for our area ... sounds about right. He had less than 1" for most of South Jersey. I don't see how that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 My gut feeling is 2"-2.5" IMBY.....make that most of our backyards. If it ends up being closer to 4" at this point, I'd be overjoyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 He had less than 1" for most of South Jersey. I don't see how that happens. Yea, I really don't see how that is the case. There are no mixing issues to worry about, and most models give a wide-range area a decent spread of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 granted the qpf has gone down, but it has gotten colder. So what u lose in qpf you will gain in better ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 He had less than 1" for most of South Jersey. I don't see how that happens. i would of gone with 1-2. Make sure you look at 925mb zone. The gfs is showing a warm wedge up in that area, combined with temps a little above frz you can get sleet or a cold rain. That though looks like it should stay south of the milville to toms river zone. The nam is colder for the area, but still from dover to mil to just south of toms river id be a little wary of some mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I think 2-4" is a solid guess at this point, some places fall an inch below or an inch above that range in the end. 2-4 or 3-5 is basically the same. I woudl tend to go with 3 to locally 5 inches. If the QPF totals are accurate in what was posted and assume better snow ratios than 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 granted the qpf has gone down, but it has gotten colder. So what u lose in qpf you will gain in better ratios. is it that hard to get 2.5" of QPF with 20:1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Sorry, tombo. I edited for consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Sorry, tombo. I edited for consistency. no problem, i just wanted to create a thread to get out of the main thread where i could post stuff for this area on the storm. The main thread was a disaster with people complaining and what not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 no problem, i just wanted to create a thread to get out of the main thread where i could post stuff for this area on the storm. The main thread was a disaster with people complaining and what not. Yeah it was getting majorly cluttered up and mostly NYC Based. This fits nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah it was getting majorly cluttered up and mostly NYC Based. This fits nicely. i wouldn't say its biased nyc, its just people are always looking for twelve plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 models showing some more snow sunday morning...1" anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 models showing some more snow sunday morning...1" anyone? ill take it, build my glaciers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 gfs ens mean reamins a little more bullish on friday. The whole state of pa/de/nj is under .25-.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah it was getting majorly cluttered up and mostly NYC Based. This fits nicely. It's not just NYC based, we have them in our area too. They expect a foot snowstorm, out of a storm that is going to give this area, 5-6 inches tops. When it doesn't happen, they explode. Those same people will be whining about warnings and advisories tomorrow. And why they're area doesn't or does have one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It's not just NYC based, we have them in our area too. They expect a foot snowstorm, out of a storm that is going to give this area, 5-6 inches tops. When it doesn't happen, they explode. Those same people will be whining about warnings and advisories tomorrow. And why they're area doesn't or does have one. Some of the folks in our CWA are pretty bad as well. Just a smaller %. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It's not just NYC based, we have them in our area too. They expect a foot snowstorm, out of a storm that is going to give this area, 5-6 inches tops. When it doesn't happen, they explode. Those same people will be whining about warnings and advisories tomorrow. And why they're area doesn't or does have one. Oh Please give me a foot of snow. Why do they say we are only getting a foot? I strongly believe we are getting a 18 inches of the white stuff. I am p/ode that the models are not showing the coastal track for us. We are in the snow hole. Wooh, My God, I was having a nightmare that I was in NYC at Central Park and Upton was predicting 4-6 inches of snow. Thanks to all of you in this thread-- it is nice to be seeing posters again that are realistic in their thoughts of this upcoming snow event. Thanks for making me laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Just looking for a little more snow to cover up those green spots messing up my yard - besides I don't feel like cleaning up my outdoor Christmas decorations yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 FWIW, both the NMM and ARW show a stripe of .25-.5" QPF in SE PA with about 3 hours of snow left to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 gfs qpf for phl is .26 on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Here was the mm5 today from 12z. I guess one could argue that southern Jersey sees 1 or 2 inches less then say, the Delaware Valley based on the QPF alone, not even factoring any potential mix. I guess its hitting on the initial overrunning precipitation falling primarily over PA and northern Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 FWIW, more bullish than I expected. Latest from HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 nam qpf ukt .24 phl .23 pne .24 ttn .24 smq .21 acy .23 miv .22 dyl .25 lom .25 nxx .25 ptw .25 rdg .26 abe .23 mpo .25 ilg .21 dov .22 dix .23 ged .24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 FWIW, more bullish than I expected. Latest from HPC Maybe they are factoring in somewhat better ratios in that 40% region....just a guess, I'm no whiz on snow ratios. Honestly, 40% isn't a huge likelyhood so I don't see a problem with that depiction, now if it was 70% I'd call it bullish. It appears to be something like a 70% chance of 2", 40% chance of 4" and 10% chance of 6" in my opinion for eastern PA and central and northern Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 should have nice dendrites with this storm per the nam. Granted the UVV's arent strong but they are in the best area for good snow growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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