tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 3z srefs are wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 00z NOGAPS 24 30 36 HPC 24 30 36 Aside from a little further south at 30 hrs ..it appears that if HPC has used the ECM that the ECM is showing the exact same thing (minus slightly south at 30) that the NOGAPS is..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NAM is WAY NW at 24... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NAM is WAY NW at 24... wait till hr 30 when you see it, way better improvement and follows the rest of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NAM is WAY NW at 24... looks like the 3-5 call might just work out and dare I say some places may even get 6".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NAM is WAY NW at 24... Yeah, sim radar definitely juicier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Even better at 30! Way wetter and NW stronger as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NYC almost.5" C-E LI .5"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 FWIW My thinking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nuts as in 6z NAM from last night? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Mt Holly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Winter weather advisories are up for entire area Mt Holly (3 to 4") and Upton (3 to 5"). Wouldn't take much to bump these to watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If accumulations look like they are going to need to be increased then chances are Mt.Holly and Upton would upgrade right to a Winter Storm Warning with the afternoon forecast package. Winter weather advisories are up for entire area Mt Holly (3 to 4") and Upton (3 to 5"). Wouldn't take much to bump these to watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If accumulations look like they are going to need to be increased then chances are Mt.Holly and Upton would upgrade right to a Winter Storm Warning with the afternoon forecast package. True that, btw, 6 z RGEM is in line with 6z NAM, nice agreement between the two with about .40 NYC / NE NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
armentoma Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The low on the 6z gfs shifted about 50 miles northwest... still has everybody .25-.5, but brings some heavier precip closer esp for long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 6z gfs ensembles look good for a 3-6 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Winter weather advisories are up for entire area Mt Holly (3 to 4") and Upton (3 to 5"). Wouldn't take much to bump these to watches. Watches could be issued for the Mt. Holly and Upton EASTERN zones if the 12Z model runs continue to up the QPF, even if just slightly, because ratios look decent. Should be an easy snow to deal with, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Watches could be issued for the Mt. Holly and Upton EASTERN zones if the 12Z model runs continue to up the QPF, even if just slightly, because ratios look decent. Should be an easy snow to deal with, though. 6 inches is the criteria I think, its possible we could see Suffolk and maybe Nassau go along with New London and Middlesex on the afternoon issuance...I think almost all the 12Z runs would have to put amounts around .50 in NYC to see any of the 5 boroughs upgraded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 if the trend becomes our true friend there is time to adjust Mt Holly is not going to bust the storm will arrive tonight leaving plenty of time to modify advisories, watches and warnings Met's have time to do some honing No matter how much the weenies pray This will be nothing like "boxing day" For now be happy with three to six Any further west we could be talking MIX! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Morning friends. While we wait for the SREFS, here's some high resolution 06z NAM awesomeness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 nice trends overnight.. I'm glad I decided to wake up today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 nice trends overnight.. I'm glad I decided to wake up today. Agreed...nice sunrise this morning too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Agreed...nice sunrise this morning too yea.... did you notice how light it was most of last night.. It didn't even feel like it got completely dark. The moon light was kind of spread all around through the veil of clouds.. it was actually pretty cool looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemCountyNJ Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 yea.... did you notice how light it was most of last night.. It didn't even feel like it got completely dark. The moon light was kind of spread all around through the veil of clouds.. it was actually pretty cool looking. Funny, I noticed that this morning when I was walking the dog, about 4:30am, very cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 yea.... did you notice how light it was most of last night.. It didn't even feel like it got completely dark. The moon light was kind of spread all around through the veil of clouds.. it was actually pretty cool looking. It was very obvious from my room how bright it was outside...never really got dark the entire night even at 2am and later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 nice trending overnight. for some reason i thought temps would be much colder this am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow..brutal cold coming in behind this one, many places outside of NYC will get below 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Funny, I noticed that this morning when I was walking the dog, about 4:30am, very cool. It was very obvious from my room how bright it was outside...never really got dark the entire night even at 2am and later. maybe it's an omen for an overachieving storm tonight and a Miller A of the likes of Jan 1996 next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Guess we were all quite surprised at the brightness of the moon, especially since the NWS didn't even have us under a Bright Moon Advisory, let alone a "High Moon Warning." On a weatherly note, 27* here in White Plains....how did MOS guidance do last night? Just wondering how it would handle the incoming airmass as it relates to the storm. It was very obvious from my room how bright it was outside...never really got dark the entire night even at 2am and later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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