tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 alright time to hop on over to the other thread lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Where is the center of the low on that image? 12 Z ECM the center of the low is actually further east Also the heavy snow discussion said it was based on the SREF and the ECM ..so it was not the ECM alone.... Just look at the isobars, the resolution of the EC data which is made available makes it up for grabs exactly where the low center is, but the isobars are virtually a perfect match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Much wetter, now 2-4" for some areas, and 3-6" for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 the euro at 12z has phl at like .07...now they are like .15 i remember though that some of the models for the past two or so events brought in some more QPF at around this time frame only have them go back down once we got within 12 hours of the event no complaints from here...snow is snow, but i was sorta hoping that the ECM would jump on board with the globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Um no....the ec is alot wetter for nyc-phl-nj.......at 12z phl was less then .10 and north jersey was .10 and i think nyc was close to .25 0.16" is what I got for NYC, which Tombo confirmed. So this is a definite improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just look at the isobars, the resolution of the EC data which is made available makes it up for grabs exactly where the low center is, but the isobars are virtually a perfect match. I would also think that either the ECM came in stronger or it came in more NW since the QPF has increased some..this actually goes to show that the ECM is not the best model... as it waited until 24 hrs before the event to get in line with the rest of the global guidance on the QPF..... I really wish the ECM had in between hour images... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 0.16" is what I got for NYC, which Tombo confirmed. So this is a definite improvement. Thanks Ray...hopefully another event to add to the ever growing list of 1+ events for ewing this winter....looking at the 12z qpf the .10 line ran right through ttn.....as a whole the system is wetter for the whole northeast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I would also think that either the ECM came in stronger or it came in more NW since the QPF has increased some..this actually goes to show that the ECM is not the best model... as it waited until 24 hrs before the event to get in line with the rest of the global guidance on the QPF..... I really wish the ECM had in between hour images... it came in a lot stronger. Same low placement basically. 12z has sub 1004, 0z sub 1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Um no....the ec is alot wetter for nyc-phl-nj.......at 12z phl was less then .10 and north jersey was .10 and i think nyc was close to .25 it aint no GFS/GEFS/RGEM/UKMET/GEM either still closer aligned to the hi-res than the globals regardless, still a day or so to see if we can get a little more out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 it came in a lot stronger. Same low placement basically. 12z has sub 1004, 0z sub 1000 Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Thanks Ray...hopefully another event to add to the ever growing list of 1+ events for ewing this winter....looking at the 12z qpf the .10 line ran right through ttn.....as a whole the system is wetter for the whole northeast.... Yeah its nuts, Friday's event will be number 6 of the winter. Less than a month ago there were 0. Its been rapid-fire for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 it aint no GFS/GEFS/RGEM/UKMET/GEM either still closer aligned to the hi-res than the globals regardless, still a day or so to see if we can get a little more out of this The EC has the same amount of preciep for nyc as most of those models.....yes its lacking in phl/snj but has made a improvement.....if anything there has been a trend for the models to be a bit wetter tonight.....except the nam..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 .25-.5 holmdel to just north of ttn to abe to ipt on north .1-.25 the remaing part of nj, all of del then to about balt to hgr So it is >0.25 here as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah its nuts, Friday's event will be number 6 of the winter. Less than a month ago there were 0. Its been rapid-fire for sure. Your going to be a busy man with ur archieve..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 So it is >0.25 here as well? yea your about .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Euro qpf is .33 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 So it is >0.25 here as well? from easton, pa-north its .25+......south of there its .10+ for PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 mon morn cities in the single digits....burbs below zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Euro has N NJ getting to -5 degrees Sunday night...NYC hits 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Most of northern new england is below -20 degrees Monday 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yep. euro is very cold. Just as cold as it was during the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Euro has N NJ getting to -5 degrees Sunday night...NYC hits 0. Wow when was the last time NYC hit 0 or below zero? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow when was the last time NYC hit 0 or below zero? jan 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 jan 94 lol I bet I was freezing when I was 1 years old. The existing snowcover from friday's event along with this arctic air will def. make it feel like a frozen tundra out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 it aint no GFS/GEFS/RGEM/UKMET/GEM either still closer aligned to the hi-res than the globals regardless, still a day or so to see if we can get a little more out of this Certainly a big improvement up here. For the record, 00z GFS gives 0.31" to KNYC 00z Euro gives 0.33" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Euro text output 12z temp monday morning for knyc is -18.1 C or -.58 F. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 That's incredible. I can't even imagine how cold the Pine Barrens would get if NYC is at 0. A few inches of snow would make our chances much greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Euro text output 12z temp monday morning for knyc is -18.1 C or -.58 F. WOW! I doubt Central Park will make it to 0F; it's a good set-up with fresh snow cover and a 1036mb dome of high pressure, but I don't think 850s are cold enough. You'd probably need like -25C 850s to get Central Park below 0F and we've only got -20C for this cold snap...even in January 2009 with 850s of -24C, Central Park recorded a low of 6F...surrounding suburbs were around 0F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Certainly a big improvement up here. For the record, 00z GFS gives 0.31" to KNYC 00z Euro gives 0.33" yes, it was an improvement for most and quite a bit for the NYC area...i was more paying attention to S PA/S NJ/DE where it still doesn't quite match up to those other models...definitely an improvement so we'll see what the rest of the day gives us i do have a bad feeling about this though because a few events (at least for Philly) showed an increase of QPF between hours 18-36 of an event only to have them drop down as we get within 12 hours of it...again we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 there is a moonbow tonight and folklore says a storm should follow in a day or two! pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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