Wannabehippie Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 More TV met news. Mr. G saying 2"-4" for the city. From what people are saying here and from my amateur eyes, that seems about right. Currently to me it is looking that NYC and PHL will see 1"-3" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 hr 33 0z gfs everyone over .10 of qpf...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Currently to me it is looking that NYC and PHL will see 1"-3" of snow. Storm cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 hr 36 gfs is .25+ for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Storm cancel? The consensus on models is about 3-5" for NYC metro, powder snows. Not looking like a major storm but should freshen things up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 the gfs pretty much shows what snowgoose was saying best case option for us is getting the waa preciep from PA and also getting qpf enhancment from the costal..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 At this range I trust the NAM over the GFS. BTW the storm is not canceled just downsized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS not bad at all. Would guess NYC and LI are around .35" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'll take it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'll take it at this point. Is it done trending yet? I doubt it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Is it done trending yet? I doubt it... The low is slightly farther north compared to the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'll take it at this point. Precip still falls after hour 33.. those are not total accums.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 0z Ukie shifted slightly northwest http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2011012000®ION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=0&F2=none&C1=hght&VEC=none&F1=p06i&C2=pmsl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Is it done trending yet? I doubt it... not sure about that..........shouldn't all the players be on the field by now............ie....good sampling data??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 in my book .25-.5 inches of qpf still keeps hope alive for .49999 however unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The low is slightly farther north compared to the 18z run. Better phasing....none the less, nothing is off the table at this point...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Funny how the TV mets who are usually the conservative ones are the people predicting more than what the latest Models are spitting out..Saw Nick Gregory Before saying 3-5 maybe more depending how fast storm bombs out..I was under impression models have went away from the phasing/Bombing part.. I am assuming he has seen all the latest Data today as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Glenn has 3-6" for Poconos, philly (and LV too I think) in 2-4", a thin stripe of 1-2" along I-295, and <1" for most of SNJ also is sticking to snow starting monday night, but now says it may change over to a wintry mix or even rain Sounds like a good and reasonable call.. trying to get my biggest snowfall of the season here (5") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 in my book .25-.5 inches of qpf still keeps hope alive for .49999 however unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 the gfs pretty much shows what snowgoose was saying best case option for us is getting the waa preciep from PA and also getting qpf enhancment from the costal..... Don't models usually under-forecast WAA? Didn't we just go through this 2 nights ago, when snow started 2 hours earlier than expected? Only this time we won't have an early changeover screwing things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Funny how the TV mets who are usually the conservative ones are the people predicting more than what the latest Models are spitting out..Saw Nick Gregory Before saying 3-5 maybe more depending how fast storm bombs out..I was under impression models have went away from the phasing/Bombing part.. I am assuming he has seen all the latest Data today as well.. GFS is 3"-5". UKIE looks like that also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 UK at 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GGEM has a 1001 low just southeast of LI. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/530_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GGEM has a 1001 low just southeast of LI. http://www.weatherof...ast/530_100.gif I'm liking the slight trend towards more amplification and a slightly wetter system as a result. Gun to my head, I'd say 3-5" right now, but slightly more can't be ruled out if the high ratios work out. People can get 6" or even 7" with 0.4" liquid with the colder temps aloft forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It really looks like the NAM is on its own here. The GFS, RGEM, GGEM and UKMET all have the Low developing closer to the coast, and therefore higher QPF numbers. Meanwhile, on the NAM we get almost all of our snow from WAA, which is why the Jersey coast is actually almost dry. I'm starting to like widespread 3-5" again. It only takes 0.25" of moisture to hit that range, which all 4 of the models mentioned above have for Philly, NYC and the shore. Seriously, when was the last time the NAM was too low on QPF? Has that EVER happened before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I can't really read the GGEM map, how much precip do we get? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Remember, there is usually a last-minute jog to the east on most coastal storms. We saw it on 12/26 and 1/12. However slight it is, it will make a difference in our western burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I can't really read the GGEM map, how much precip do we get? Thanks. That frame has us all in 5-10mm, which is 0.20-0.40" There might be a tiny bit more on either end, but nothing significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I can't really read the GGEM map, how much precip do we get? Thanks. 5-10mm...0.20-0.40". In NJ it's probably around 0.30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Oz GFS ensemble mean is wet. Has a 997 low just inside the BM. Looks like .25-.50 for many areas .Probably closer to .50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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