Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 knyc .20 klga .20 kjfk .19 kewr .19 kphl .13 text output off 00z nam...temps around 27-28 during snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Can you post a link to this? Look up a few posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Goodness....if that northern stream disturbance north of the Great Lakes at 72 hours could be alittle faster and deeper and pull the East Coast trough negative................................................................... It looks like each run is getting a little bit closer to something, is there even a possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The interface on the new NCEP site is absolutely atrocious. The products are good, but I feel like I'm browsing a website from 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The interface on the new NCEP site is absolutely atrocious. The products are good, but I feel like I'm browsing a website from 2001. The graphics could use a little work too--especially the vorticity fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yes, I saw that too. So close. Goodness....if that northern stream disturbance north of the Great Lakes at 72 hours could be alittle faster and deeper and pull the East Coast trough negative................................................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah... I thought DT was going to jump off a bridge back in December. Moving on. DT busted so bad with the Boxing Day storm because he's basically a model hugger, and hugged the Euro model immensely before that storm occurred. Problem was, the Boxing Day blizzard totally fooled the Euro, and messed around with it big time. If DT would have initially held his guns and kept calling a storm before the Euro switched its course, he would have looked amazing. Instead, he went with the Euro 100%, cancelled the storm when the Euro did, and then couldn't really save himself when the Euro came around again to showing the storm 24 hrs before it occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 knyc .20 klga .20 kjfk .19 kewr .19 kphl .13 text output off 00z nam...temps around 27-28 during snow kswf .21 khpn .22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 The interface on the new NCEP site is absolutely atrocious. The products are good, but I feel like I'm browsing a website from 2001. Yeah. The resolution needs improvement but the products are great and fast. The interface is good once u get used to it. It's good to finally see a fast rapid update NCEP site though with 3 hour increments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nick Gregory calling for at least 3 - 5". Seems bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 DT busted so bad with the Boxing Day storm because he's basically a model hugger, and hugged the Euro model immensely before that storm occurred. Problem was, the Boxing Day blizzard totally fooled the Euro, and messed around with it big time. If DT would have initially held his guns and kept calling a storm before the Euro switched its course, he would have looked amazing. Instead, he went with the Euro 100%, cancelled the storm when the Euro did, and then couldn't really save himself when the Euro came around again to showing the storm 24 hrs before it occurred. kinda true but ALOT of the guidance showed a miss when the EURO trended that way....so i get what your saying, but its not as easy or simple as you make it out to be. but he did nail the next storm from like 7+ days out if that makes up for anything, according to your standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The interface on the new NCEP site is absolutely atrocious. The products are good, but I feel like I'm browsing a website from 2001. Agreed, and I cant figure out how to not loop the stupid thing. Oh well, NAM was nothing to see anyways, and I have sv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Boy I was wrong last night. It looks like a small even at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nick Gregory is going with 3-5 for the NYC area. He is a really good Met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 kinda true but ALOT of the guidance showed a miss when the EURO trended that way....so i get what your saying, but its not as easy or simple as you make it out to be. but he did nail the next storm from like 7+ days out if that makes up for anything, according to your standards. You're right, but he literally said in his discussions if I recall correctly, that other guidance should be ignored because it pales in comparison to the Euro. That's why when his best man Euro jumped for a little, he jumped as well. It served him badly though, and seems to be the impetus for him to leave us yet again. His "I screwed the Pooch" post was literally posted right when the Euro jumped ship. He's a good forecaster, but more because I think he's great at translating models. That's how his discussions at least come across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 To save some time: NCEP EXPERIMENTAL MODEL PAGE: GFS: http://mag.ncep.noaa...=MODEL+GUIDANCE NAM: http://mag.ncep.noaa...=MODEL+GUIDANCE RUC: http://mag.ncep.noaa...=MODEL+GUIDANCE There is also GFS spag plots and ensembles but if you are smart enough to know about those I will assume you know how to click the links from the main page. I will post this in the pinned weather model thread as well. Nice... thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nick Gregory is going with 3-5 for the NYC area. He is a really good Met. Sometimes your posts come off as self-therapy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Glenn has 3-6" for Poconos, philly (and LV too I think) in 2-4", a thin stripe of 1-2" along I-295, and <1" for most of SNJ also is sticking to snow starting monday night, but now says it may change over to a wintry mix or even rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Sometimes your posts come off as self-therapy. He wants snow just as much as you do and the rest of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Agreed, and I cant figure out how to not loop the stupid thing. Oh well, NAM was nothing to see anyways, and I have sv Does SV have nam surface temp map and sim radar? Anyway, You hit the scroll down menu and select the hour you want and then the map overlay. It only loops if u selected loop in scroll menu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah I like to hear myself talk. In reality, most analysis often times relies on far too simplistic of a reasoning--which is what you are doing here. Tossing around "modestly large vorticity" and saying "plenty sufficient to initiate cyclogenesis" etc. is, once again, being far too simplistic. If you have any understanding of the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, you would be more willing to understand that things are never so straight-forward. I completely agree with this. And I often find myself arguing this exact position. But in this specific example I figured there was no point in my quantifying vorticity and height values in a hypothetical example... I thought the qualitative implication was still sufficiently illustrative to prompt a response... but apparently not. Probably for the better since we can never know what would have happened if atmospheric conditions had been different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just wondering: has every piece of energy been properly sampled yet? Is there anything that can change things for the better? Things to me seem more set in stone that previous storms, i.e. like the Boxing day one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 0z RGEM shifted slightly south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It was a snide remark because your replies have been absolutely insincere and without any verifiable proof to back up your silly claims and accusations. You are "frustrated" because, in your opinion, meteorologists are "misdiagnosing" the threat and don't know what a phase is, then when asked to provide your own dynamical/synoptic assessment of the situation, you have nothing but old-wives tales and simplistic met 101 explanations. You accuse earthlight and others of "IMBY" wish-casting for no particular reason other than what must be your own misunderstandings and "frustrations", and when confronted with evidence which discredits your own claims, you back-track and try to cover your own rear-end by saying "I never saw this as anything but a glancing blow. And yes I do believe you can get a glancing 8" of snow." Then when meteorologists do provide evidence and discussion of the particular pattern at hand, which you requested, you say we are trying to complicate a simplistic forecast by saying "It kind of seemed to me you were trying to use technical terms to jumble and conceal a relatively straightforward point." This is a gross misrepresentation of my points and positions. On just about every point. I was holding you in higher esteem before I read this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just wondering: has every piece of energy been properly sampled yet? Is there anything that can change things for the better? Things to me seem more set in stone that previous storms, i.e. like the Boxing day one. The northern disturbance was slightly north of the border at 00Z so it should be sampled now, one might argue 12Zs runs would guarantee it but there was a bit of deepening on this run at 500 initially which may have been a result of the closer proximity of the northern disturbance to the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Does SV have nam surface temp map and sim radar? Anyway, You hit the scroll down menu and select the hour you want and then the map overlay. It only loops if u selected loop in scroll menu. Yes and no No sim radar, but twisterdata is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Goodness....if that northern stream disturbance north of the Great Lakes at 72 hours could be alittle faster and deeper and pull the East Coast trough negative................................................................... I'm not sure it wouldn't just interfere with the southern stream wave. But certainly interesting if you live in the outer banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Currently to me it is looking that NYC and PHL will see 1"-3" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Agreed, and I cant figure out how to not loop the stupid thing. Oh well, NAM was nothing to see anyways, and I have sv Yeah..the SV interface is way better..you pay for it, and you can see the difference. The regional and zoom view options are also tremendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 0z RGEM shifted slightly south and east. Posted Image still a bit wetter too. Most of E PA is in 7.5-10mm, which is 0.30-0.40" NYC gets 5.5-8.5mm, or 0.22-0.33" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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