nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just out of curiosity, when is this supposed to affect us? Thursday night into Friday? or All day Friday? I think it is supposed to start around midnight and then go into the early morning hours Friday....should be clearing up by Friday late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think it is supposed to start around midnight and then go into the early morning hours Friday....should be clearing up by Friday late afternoon. Thanks. 2-4" seems likely, so hopefully tonight's models truly confirm that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 0z nam anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 hr 33 on 00z nam both phl and nyc at .10 preciep...more to come...all of PA in .10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 You been stuck in a box man? He's been gone since right after his epic bust. He went back to SV. haha. I honestly never leave our sub-forum. Which bust? Boxing Day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 to my eyes it seems unchanged at worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 NAM is .10" for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 hr 36 light to mod snow for the area...everyone over .10 of preciep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 haha. I honestly never leave our sub-forum. Which bust? Boxing Day? Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 hr 39 preciep moving out...eastern tip of LI is at .25. Nyc and phl prob close to .20 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 hr 36 light to mod snow for the area...everyone over .10 of preciep Looking at sims at 36, There is nothing left west of NYC and only a little left for NYC east. NCEP new experimental site is fast like SV, has 3 hour maps along with sims and other nice features, including nam surface temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The low is slightly northwest of the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looking at sims at 36, There is nothing left west of NYC and only a little left for NYC east. NCEP new experimental site is fast like SV, has 3 hour maps along with sims and other nice features, including nam surface temp. okay how does that change the outcome of us getting .10+? i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Total precip thru hour 42: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20110120/00/nam_namer_042_precip_p36.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 okay how does that change the outcome of us getting .10+? i Just letting u and others know that NCEP finally has rapid update maps for all models in 3 hour increments. Better map and more choices. I wonder when it will come off the experimental status and become official? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 RSM has .25-.50 QPF for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Still would like to see the trough dig more at 30 hours, if it did that WAA precip in C PA would be over the region....as it turns out we only really benefit once the coastal fires, a bit more digging and we can get him from both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Ill take it Im not greedy, just as long as it does not turn out like yesterday.. ugh. If nothing else these couple of winters have spoiled a lot of folks. I can remember praying and hoping for 1-3" snow in the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njwinter Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah... I thought DT was going to jump off a bridge back in December. Moving on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just letting u and others know that NCEP finally has rapid update maps for all models in 3 hour increments. Better map and more choices. I wonder when it will come off the experimental status and become official? Apologies if you've posted it before but can you post a link where I can access this tasty material? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Apologies if you've posted it before but can you post a link where I can access this tasty material? Thanks! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The good news about this event if we lead into it with the same modeling we have now is it can do nothing but overachieve as it happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ Yes. This is the rapid update experimental site. Hit "model guidance", then the model and then the region "namerica". Then use the scroll for hour and then select the map. Great site once u get used to the navigational aspects. It updates as fast as SV and Ewall and all the other pay sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yes. This is the rapid update experimental site. Hit "model guidance", then the model and then the region "namerica". Then use the scroll for hour and then select the map. Great site once u get used to the navigational aspects. It updates as fast as SV and Ewall and all the other pay sites. To save some time: NCEP EXPERIMENTAL MODEL PAGE: GFS: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&model=GFS&area=NAMER&areaDesc=North+America+-+US%2C+Canada%2C+and+northern+Mexico&page=Model&prevModel=&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&prevKey=model&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE NAM: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&model=NAM&area=NAMER&areaDesc=North+America+-+US%2C+Canada%2C+and+northern+Mexico&page=Model&prevModel=&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&prevKey=model&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE RUC: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&model=RUC&area=NAMER&areaDesc=North+America+-+US%2C+Canada%2C+and+northern+Mexico&page=Model&prevModel=&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&prevKey=model&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE There is also GFS spag plots and ensembles but if you are smart enough to know about those I will assume you know how to click the links from the main page. I will post this in the pinned weather model thread as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParsippanyWX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The good news about this event if we lead into it with the same modeling we have now is it can do nothing but overachieve as it happens! Correct. I'm going out on a limb here and say that the "overachievement" will result in 4-6" for PHI/NYC/SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Goodness....if that northern stream disturbance north of the Great Lakes at 72 hours could be alittle faster and deeper and pull the East Coast trough negative................................................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 To save some time: NCEP EXPERIMENTAL MODEL PAGE: GFS: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&model=GFS&area=NAMER&areaDesc=North+America+-+US%2C+Canada%2C+and+northern+Mexico&page=Model&prevModel=&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&prevKey=model&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE NAM: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&model=NAM&area=NAMER&areaDesc=North+America+-+US%2C+Canada%2C+and+northern+Mexico&page=Model&prevModel=&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&prevKey=model&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE RUC: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&model=RUC&area=NAMER&areaDesc=North+America+-+US%2C+Canada%2C+and+northern+Mexico&page=Model&prevModel=&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&prevKey=model&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE There is also GFS spag plots and ensembles but if you are smart enough to know about those I will assume you know how to click the links from the main page. I will post this in the pinned weather model thread as well. It also has Srefs about 5-10 mins before the real NCEP site. And the NMM/ARW at least 30 minutes earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The good news about this event if we lead into it with the same modeling we have now is it can do nothing but overachieve as it happens! Just a question, How does the NAM compare with what is happening out west now? Meaning, initially does it match up well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duality Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It also has Srefs about 5-10 mins before the real NCEP site. is it pretty accurate so far? don't know how long in use Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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