Alpha5 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 at the surface, everything shifted about 50 miles west from 6z Anyone have any ideas on why the models are trending stronger at the last minute? I was thinking it could be the canadian energy finally entering bettered sampled areas and the US...perhaps that was stronger than originally modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 same intensity as 6z (992 off of Boston) but it shifted a hair west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I was into several Brooklyn Chocolate Stout at that point and in hockey euphoria after watching the Rangers beat down the Leafs. You ruined the mood. I had to wake up at 2AM for work, but i caught the first period and went to sleep a happy man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nice band at 21 guys. Killer. Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 sounds like upton should be going with warnings with the afternoon package (pending the rest of the 12z guidance) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 sounds like upton should be going with warnings with the afternoon package (pending the rest of the 12z guidance) As they should if the GFS comes in wetter. Warning criteria is 6" here so QPF from .5-.75 would merit a warning easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 sounds like upton should be going with warnings with the afternoon package (pending the rest of the 12z guidance) Looks like a 4-8" from N NJ through Boston on the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Killer. Sign me up. What do you have this winter, a snow magnet? sell me one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Does anyone think that we could see some warm air working in giving us more mixing, the 12z Nam seemed to trend that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 BTW, how are the 850 temps looking? Are we still talking about 15-1 ratios? If so most of the region probably is in the 6-12" range especially north of philly and east of Morristown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 BTW, how are the 850 temps looking? Are we still talking about 15-1 ratios? If so most of the region probably is in the 6-12" range especially north of philly and east of Morristown. lol.....no man....never count on ratios.......go with a 12-1 and go from there later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looking at my high resolution maps of the 12z NAM on Wright-Weather. I have two max areas of qpf., one over NW NJ of .517 and one over Eastern Long Island of .561 at 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Only thing is that 12z NAM has surface temps warmer. 32 degree line cuts thru NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I just checked out a zoom in view of the northeast for all critical thickness values.. We should be ok.. I think everyone should see all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Only thing is that 12z NAM has surface temps warmer. 32 degree line cuts thru NYC. That's what I'm worried about, we could see rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 lol.....no man....never count on ratios.......go with a 12-1 and go from there later well the reason why I mentioned 15-1 is because when I compared the NWS predicted QPF last night VS. predicted snowfall thats what I came up with. I would have to go back and look but the new numbers for Upton have gone down slightly on the ratios. For example Upton now has Oakland at 4.1" with 0.32" QPF. Thats between a 13-1 & 14-1 ratio. I do realize a track closer to the coast probably means lower ratios but I also know that ratios are dependent on temps at 850 not the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 That's what I'm worried about, we could see rain. No. Its snow. Upper levels are plenty cold. Worst case would be a 31-34 degree snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Its probably a 3-6/4-7" ceiling either way because of the warmer column as the storm tracks further west. But I'll sign up for this solution right now and would love a few hours of good snow. 5 more inches to hit 50 on the year and that would leave me one storm away from last years totals. Good stuff. La epic winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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