SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 4:54 AM, Snow88 said: Oz GFS ensemble mean is wet. Has a 997 low just inside the BM. Looks like .25-.50 for many areas .Probably closer to .50. They tend to run too wet, but I'd rather see them show that than .10-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 4:52 AM, Thunder Road said: Remember, there is usually a last-minute jog to the east on most coastal storms. We saw it on 12/26 and 1/12. However slight it is, it will make a difference in our western burbs. what....?1/12?i thought the big storm was the 9th?if thats the one it was more west then models progged as it literally passed between block island and montauk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 4:07 AM, algreek3 said: GFS is 3"-5". UKIE looks like that also. Seems to match Nick Gregory's call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 4:56 AM, bass28 said: what....?1/12?i thought the big storm was the 9th?if thats the one it was more west then models progged as it literally passed between block island and montauk. I'm thinking of the Miller B last Tuesday into Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 ARW is .10-.25 in many areas. It has the low similiar to the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS ensembles are much wetter than the op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Seems like the meso-scale models have been drier with this system, with the Globals so far coming in a bit wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What is 3-6: not good enough for anyone? It is so dead in here!:snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 4:51 AM, Thunder Road said: It really looks like the NAM is on its own here. Don't forget the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 5:31 AM, Ericjcrash said: What is 3-6: not good enough for anyone? It is so dead in here!:snowman: With 5 KU's in the last 14 months... well, yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 5:35 AM, famartin said: Don't forget the EC. Argh. And add to it the MM5 also: And apparently the ARW, although I thought it wasn't out yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 5:35 AM, famartin said: Don't forget the EC. I know this is going to change but I do not think that HPC was using the ECM for track so much because if they were then they would not have the low so far west in this image...After all the ECM was further east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 5:36 AM, famartin said: With 5 KU's in the last 14 months... well, yes Yeah, yeah I'll take any fresh snowcover. Especially when we are already well over the seasonal average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 so far its the globals all wetter, while the mesos drier....euro has init btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 5:39 AM, Thunder Road said: Argh. And add to it the MM5 also: And apparently the ARW, although I thought it wasn't out yet... MM5 still looks like 10 mm in our backyard which falls in line with others that show 0.25"+ ARW is worse as you said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 5:46 AM, Yes_Probably_Maybe_No said: MM5 still looks like 10 mm in our backyard which falls in line with others that show 0.25"+ ARW is worse as you said... That's 10 1/100ths of an inch..or .10" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I would't sweat the MM5 just yet, it's still outside of it's 24 hr deadly range and it uses the NAM so it makes sense givin its run for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 5:47 AM, earthlight said: That's 10 1/100ths of an inch..or .10" liquid. yeah you're right the mm got me confuzzled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z Euro has -20 F temps in New York State Monday morning with 0 degrees over nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 well the euro has come in wetter than 12z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 the ec is wetter.... nyc is .25+ and phl .10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 5:42 AM, atownwxwatcher said: I know this is going to change but I do not think that HPC was using the ECM for track so much because if they were then they would not have the low so far west in this image...After all the ECM was further east... Looks alot like the EC to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 5:56 AM, Allsnow said: the ec is wetter.... nyc is .25+ and phl .10+ NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 from holmdel, nj- north its .25+ and ttn-south .10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 .25-.5 holmdel to just north of ttn to abe to ipt on north .1-.25 the remaing part of nj, all of del then to about balt to hgr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 5:56 AM, tombo82685 said: well the euro has come in wetter than 12z so far. yeah i got excited On 1/20/2011 at 5:56 AM, Allsnow said: the ec is wetter.... nyc is .25+ and phl .10+ and then not so much Another battle of globals vs hi-res (plus ECM). Gonna set us up for an interesting two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 6:00 AM, tombo82685 said: .25-.5 holmdel to just north of ttn to abe to ipt on north .1-.25 the remaing part of nj, all of del then to about balt to hgr I'm kinda glad... I didn't really want to take my 3-6 "gun to the head" call down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 6:00 AM, Yes_Probably_Maybe_No said: yeah i got excited and then not so much Another battle of globals vs hi-res (plus ECM). Gonna set us up for an interesting two days. the euro at 12z has phl at like .07...now they are like .15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 5:57 AM, famartin said: Looks alot like the EC to me... Where is the center of the low on that image? 12 Z ECM the center of the low is actually further east Also the heavy snow discussion said it was based on the SREF and the ECM ..so it was not the ECM alone.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On 1/20/2011 at 6:00 AM, Yes_Probably_Maybe_No said: yeah i got excited and then not so much Another battle of globals vs hi-res (plus ECM). Gonna set us up for an interesting two days. Um no....the ec is alot wetter for nyc-phl-nj.......at 12z phl was less then .10 and north jersey was .10 and i think nyc was close to .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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