Sqwearl Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I lived on columbia during the 89 event, we had flurries when myr had 14" I was only 9 years old when that happened. My grandparents came to Myrtle from Greenville every year for Christmas. They were obviously a little more acoustumed to winter weather. But one of my favorite memories of my grandfather that i can still see clear as day is him pulling into the yard with gigantic fat flakes falling. He got out and said "Never thought I would go to Myrtle Beach for a White Christmas". It was truly magical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 :weight_lift: Now this is something you just don't see every day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 When should the event start? Early morning hours? Noon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For the SC coast, the best major snow analog I could find (since 1940) to this setup is 12/26-12/27/1980, which gave 3.8" to CHS. I'm not saying that this means CHS will get a major snow like that. I'm just saying that of all of the 1"+ snows at CHS since 1940 (I count ten of them), the 12/26-27/1980 seems to be the closest to the progged setup with a mainly Atlantic development of the sfc low as opposed to a Gulf developed low or as opposed to a mainly upper low bringing in its moisture from inland. 12/1989 is kind of borderline as it had some Gulf effects. To find 12/27/1980, you can go here: http://docs.lib.noaa...ather_maps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 00zNAM out to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This is very interesting looking. Some of the totals will shock people if this occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Nam @ 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z NAM precip vs 00z NAM precip big trend west. models seem to be playing catchup with the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Temperature is cooling down some. Down to 41.2 on James Island, 38 at Airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Worthy of note is the fact that the TD's, which are much drier on the NAM vs. the GFS, are running a good bit closer to the GFS. Perhaps that would favor the wetter GFS solutions over the much drier NAM's?? So, even though the NAM has the sfc low in about the same place as the GFS, the TD as of 10 AM tomorrow at CHS is 26 F per the 18Z gfs but only 9 F per the 12Z NAM (18Z NAM TD N/A)! So, perhaps the main reason for the discrepancy is the difference in the TD's near the sfc. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well, I'm getting off computer for the night...been on here enough today. Just want to thank all the mets for all the great info on here today (thanks to all the other smart peeps too). I hope everyone on the S/C & N/C coast gets dumped on tomorrow. I will have my camera ready! Good Luck to all and to all a good night! Snowy Dreams! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Worthy of note is the fact that the TD's, which are much drier on the NAM vs. the GFS, are running a good bit closer to the GFS. Perhaps that would favor the wetter GFS solutions over the much drier NAM's?? So, even though the NAM has the sfc low in about the same place as the GFS, the TD as of 10 AM tomorrow at CHS is 26 F per the 18Z gfs but only 9 F per the 12Z NAM (18Z NAM TD N/A)! So, perhaps the main reason for the discrepancy is the difference in the TD's near the sfc. Any thoughts? Great point, and you may be on to something. We are sitting at a DP of 25 here in CHS with temps already down to 38. Would take a drastic drop to even get close to the DP of 9 that the NAM is painting. Were the DP's on the 00z run of the NAM as low as 18z? 00z was wetter closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustagaweather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Don't forget that a good percentage of this years storms have been over-performing in the moisture department. Keeping my fingers crossed for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Great point, and you may be on to something. We are sitting at a DP of 25 here in CHS with temps already down to 38. Would take a drastic drop to even get close to the DP of 9 that the NAM is painting. Were the DP's on the 00z run of the NAM as low as 18z? 00z was wetter closer to the coast. My source doesn't have the 0Z NAM yet and will never have the 18Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Channel 24 (5) is saying a wintery mix with some snow, and that "it's not going to be a big snowfall." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Should be fun if the 00z GFS comes in even wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Great point, and you may be on to something. We are sitting at a DP of 25 here in CHS with temps already down to 38. Would take a drastic drop to even get close to the DP of 9 that the NAM is painting. Were the DP's on the 00z run of the NAM as low as 18z? 00z was wetter closer to the coast. 0Z NAM TD's at CHS are still very dry with 20 F as of 10 PM (vs. actual of 25F) and only 9 F as of 10 AM tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 0Z gfs is drier than the 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 A good run. the immediate SC coast is in the .25" qpf with .5" lurking just offshore. The event is about 12 hours way now. Should be fun to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Compared to the 18z theres not that much of a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just issued from CHS: SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/ AN AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ELONGATES EAST-WEST TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME WE ARE KEEPING A VERY CLOSE EYE ON A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT SHORT WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE AREA FROM NW OF THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN FL. DEPENDING UPON HOW STRONG THE SHORT WAVE GETS...HOW SHARP THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH BECOMES AND EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE LOW FORMS AND ITS FUTURE MOVEMENT WILL HAVE LARGE BEARINGS ON THE FORECAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE HAS ALREADY BEGUN AS IR SAT IMAGES SHOWING CLOUD COVER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEARBY LAND AREAS IN GEORGIA STARTING TO EXPAND NORTHWARD. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER A LITTLE QUICKER OVERNIGHT ON THIS UPDATE...BUT FEELING IS THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND AREAS VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. KEPT CHANCES FAIRLY LOW SINCE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. ADJUSTED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES UPWARD A LITTLE MAINLY DUE TO DECOUPLING THAT HAS OCCURRED AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND BELIEVE THAT ONCE THIS OCCURS...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A LITTLE. WITH CLOUDS ARRIVING A LITTLE SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...HAVE NUDGED LOW TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE IN MANY AREAS. SATURDAY...CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY AND THEN STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE DAY. THE QUESTIONS ARE...HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT ONSHORE AND WILL IT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO REACH THE -10 TO -20 LAYER WHERE SNOW FLAKE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AND HOW STRONG TWILL THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE BE. 18Z/21 GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE AT BRING DEEP MOISTURE BACK INTO THE TRI COUNTY AREA WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 0.25 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA. FEEL THIS IS WAY OVER DONE...ALTHOUGH 00Z NAM HAS TRENDED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE PREVIOUS GFS RUNS...ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. BASED ON NAM 00Z/22 SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DATA...THERE MAY BE NOTHING HERE AT THE AIRPORT AND POSSIBLY SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN FAR NORTHEASTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY. AS A RESULT...HAVE RAISED POPS TO 30 PERCENT FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY. TIME OF THE DAY...A WARM GROUND AND TEMPERATURES LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE SNOW TO ACCUMULATE...SO FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE 1/10 INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS IN THIS AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 TV stations aren't calling for much. However, this is truly a nowcast storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Folks, Some interesting things are going on currently at my and nearby locations in upper SE GA and lower SC. Over just the last hour, we've suddenly gone from clear skies to mostly cloudy. Should this hold, that would mean that the clouds are ahead of the models by several hours in this area. Per the 0Z NAM/18Z gfs, SAV was supposed to be only up to 49%/18% clouds at 1 AM. I'm wondering whether or not this is an indication of more moisture along/near the coast than the drier models have been suggesting. Then again, it may be irrelevant. Any opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Here in SAV, our skies have been nearly overcast for about an hour with the moon going back and forth from being totally obscured to being partially being visible through a couple of layers of clouds. The lower clouds seem to be thickening and moving in from the SW...probably centered near the 700 mb level/~10 k feet. So, 700 mb RH's are likely now 90%+. However, model progs haven't brought in high RH at 700 mb until around daybreak, if then. My point continues to be that the models are way too slow (by ~six hours in some cases) in bringing in the widespread clouds/moisture aloft. Also, sfc TD's are verifying quite a bit higher than what the models have been progging. So, the atmosphere as a whole is a good bit moister than what was progged. What are the implications? Anyone? Does this mean that the wetter models are more likely to verify or is it irrelevant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This is going to be closer to the coast than previously advertised, 1" along the immediate beaches, with 2-3" bullets from Myrtle to Wilmington and Cape Lookout, book it!!! Congrats guys, enjoy the dendrites falling, take a break from this wx board, savor the flavor, as you may not see it again for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This is going to be closer to the coast than previously advertised, 1" along the immediate beaches, with 2-3" bullets from Myrtle to Wilmington and Cape Lookout, book it!!! Congrats guys, enjoy the dendrites falling, take a break from this wx board, savor the flavor, as you may not see it again for awhile. awesome, hopefully we'll over perform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 awesome, hopefully we'll over perform I have the grand strand and crystal coast's L2 ass on this one... Congrats, wish you guys the best, enjoy and will be tracking per the ILM site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Folks, Continuing with the nowcasting of the moisture return, the first real precip. echoes are now showing up over north-central FL. Let's see how this evolves. Also, echoes are now over NW AL. The NAM sim. had no choes there. Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 does the 3z RUC seem dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Here is a very interesting development as of 2 AM: GAINESVILLE LGT RAIN Per the JAX NWS office, there was no forecast for precip. there tonight with only areas closer to the east coast having a 20% chance. Again, this may be related to the fact that there is more moisture than what was assumed in the drier models. As tough as it is for me to do, I'm going to now try to get some shut-eye. By the way, it now looks like a thick overcast here in SAV...this is a good ~5 hours early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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