superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Oh wow, the 18z GFS loves you guys! Hopefully it all works out. I want to see videos of snow on the beach! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Oh wow, the 18z GFS loves you guys! Hopefully it all works out. I want to see videos of snow on the beach! You got it!! I need to go charge my camera...thanks for the reminder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Um.... Crystal Coast NC to Southern OBX is getting close to .5 with 20:1 ratios..... can someone talk me off this cloud? NAM does not believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 can someone post bufkit data for kchs when available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 My thoughts on this event http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/snow-likely-tonight-tomorrow-across-the-grand-strand-to-coastal-nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 My thoughts on this event http://www.examiner....d-to-coastal-nc Thank you for your insight!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 My thoughts on this event http://www.examiner....d-to-coastal-nc thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepSouthSC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Considering, many of you missed out on the Christmas event and the snowstorm on January 10th.... Good luck to my fellow South Carolinian's this weekend. Not to mention, likewise for the coastal folk in NC. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Local news is beginning to jump on board, calling for a wintry mix right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaydog Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yea what a trend and one I was afraid of. I'm walking that fine line on the air this afternoon calling for a "period of light snow" but I keep using the "any change and we could see more" CYA method. Tricky for sure and I'm still uneasy with NAM so much drier/offshore. Gonna be really fun to watch the sat/rad shots tonight to see how this thing develops. Between the shape of the coast and distribution of the coast, I can certainly see some bulls eyes around CHS, ILM and MHX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yea what a trend and one I was afraid of. I'm walking that fine line on the air this afternoon calling for a "period of light snow" but I keep using the "any change and we could see more" CYA method. Tricky for sure and I'm still uneasy with NAM so much drier/offshore. Gonna be really fun to watch the sat/rad shots tonight to see how this thing develops. Between the shape of the coast and distribution of the coast, I can certainly see some bulls eyes around CHS, ILM and MHX. If I may ask, what station do you work at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Local met just said look out for a wintry mix in the morning around 9am but it should be partly cloudy by noon? The GFS looked like it would be an extended event lasting into the afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 First I want to wish you guys along the coastal sections of the Carolinas the very best out of this, shoe horn is at work and telepathically trying to draw it closer to the coast, on back channel communications with the Gulf Stream and the 500mb vortmax! There still is some question on amounts, with some guidance keeping almost everything offshore, while others sling a healthy bit back. One has to give props to the Euro for catching this development on the tail end of the front when nothing else hinted at it, not even a single GFS or Canadian ens member. Granted, it trended further offshore, and now over the past 24 hrs looks like it may be coming west, but there are still uncertainties as it could go either way from center. The Euro originally had this trough going neg just off the GA coast, since then all the models have trended to pos, and are at a general agreement of positive orientation for the duration, even once well off the SE coast (see the 18z GFS H5 graphics below, positive orientation at 30hrs). However, this is a rather potent vort packet and any trend towards a less positive axis would enhance your chances along the coast of seeing measurable SN. Keep an eye on the RUC as the event is starting to come into this near term high res meso model's window. Any trend towards a less pos axis in the last 24 hrs could have sig implications for you. I wish you guys the best, and if it were not for a little weather get together here the Coastal Plain I have tomorrow evening, me and the mrs would be down at Riverside in Swansboro for dinner, and maybe some SN. GFS SE station output over the past 4 runs, that is a trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yeah jaydog the geography of long bay really can be an interesting one to deal with whether it be tropical systems or winter storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaydog Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 WMBF in Myrtle Beach If I may ask, what station do you work at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaydog Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Exactly...still amazes me how such a seemingly small change in the coast line can result in such huge differences in weather. yeah jaydog the geography of long bay really can be an interesting one to deal with whether it be tropical systems or winter storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Someone pinch me, please. Is this really showing up on the 18z gfs? Per 18Z gfs MeteoStar, KCHS (airport) gets walloped with a major snowstorm (4-5") between 4 AM and 1PM from 0.43" while northerly winds blow and temp.'s get as low as 24-25 F!! The afternoon high is only 32 and the next morning low plunges to 11 F due to thick snowcover!! It is hard to believe that it would fall that much when considering that Beaufort, which also gets some snow, is projected to fall to only 29 F. So, I'm guessing that some of these CHS temp.'s are a bit overdone to the cold side. IF KCHS were to get 3.9"+, it would be the biggest snowstorm there since the great 12/22-24/1989 8" snow would be the third heaviest snow going back at least to 1940, and would be the heaviest in JAN since at least 1940! The only other heavier one since 1940 was the great 7.1" of 2/9-10/1973. It would also at least triple the current La Nina heaviest snow on record since 1940, which is the 1.3" of 2/22/1968. The heaviest moderate to strong La Nina snowstorm since 1940 is the 0.9" of 2/23-24/1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 StnID: kcre Model: gfs3 Run: 20110121/1800 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Sleet Ratio: 2:1 || CarSnowTool Beta 5.4 Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ====================================================================================================================== 110121/2100Z 3 35008KT 45.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110122/0000Z 6 01008KT 37.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110122/0300Z 9 02010KT 34.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110122/0600Z 12 03011KT 31.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110122/0900Z 15 03013KT 30.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110122/1200Z 18 02015KT 27.1F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.3 0.031|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110122/1500Z 21 01014KT 24.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.5|| 0.9 0.055|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110122/1800Z 24 36013KT 24.3F SNOW 22:1| 4.4|| 5.3 0.205|| 0.29 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110122/2100Z 27 36010KT 25.3F SNOW 24:1| 2.1|| 7.4 0.087|| 0.38 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110123/0000Z 30 36009KT 23.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 7.4 0.000|| 0.38 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110123/0300Z 33 36007KT 22.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 7.4 0.000|| 0.38 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110123/0600Z 36 34006KT 22.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 Can someone tell me how much snow this is showing For my area please! Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 StnID: kcre Model: gfs3 Run: 20110121/1800 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Sleet Ratio: 2:1 || CarSnowTool Beta 5.4 Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ====================================================================================================================== 110121/2100Z 3 35008KT 45.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110122/0000Z 6 01008KT 37.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110122/0300Z 9 02010KT 34.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110122/0600Z 12 03011KT 31.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110122/0900Z 15 03013KT 30.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110122/1200Z 18 02015KT 27.1F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.3 0.031|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110122/1500Z 21 01014KT 24.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.5|| 0.9 0.055|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110122/1800Z 24 36013KT 24.3F SNOW 22:1| 4.4|| 5.3 0.205|| 0.29 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110122/2100Z 27 36010KT 25.3F SNOW 24:1| 2.1|| 7.4 0.087|| 0.38 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110123/0000Z 30 36009KT 23.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 7.4 0.000|| 0.38 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110123/0300Z 33 36007KT 22.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 7.4 0.000|| 0.38 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110123/0600Z 36 34006KT 22.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 Can someone tell me how much snow this is showing For my area please! Thank you! 7.4" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 7.4" total. Holy Cow...ok I thought that is what it said (still learning) but I thought no way, your just hoping it says that! I am so not going to sleep tonight!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 StnID: kcre Model: gfs3 Run: 20110121/1800 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Sleet Ratio: 2:1 || CarSnowTool Beta 5.4 Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ====================================================================================================================== 110121/2100Z 3 35008KT 45.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110122/0000Z 6 01008KT 37.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110122/0300Z 9 02010KT 34.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110122/0600Z 12 03011KT 31.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110122/0900Z 15 03013KT 30.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110122/1200Z 18 02015KT 27.1F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.3 0.031|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110122/1500Z 21 01014KT 24.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.5|| 0.9 0.055|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110122/1800Z 24 36013KT 24.3F SNOW 22:1| 4.4|| 5.3 0.205|| 0.29 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110122/2100Z 27 36010KT 25.3F SNOW 24:1| 2.1|| 7.4 0.087|| 0.38 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110123/0000Z 30 36009KT 23.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 7.4 0.000|| 0.38 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110123/0300Z 33 36007KT 22.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 7.4 0.000|| 0.38 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110123/0600Z 36 34006KT 22.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 Can someone tell me how much snow this is showing For my area please! Thank you! That shows 7.4". However, much of that is based on ratios of water to snow of 1:22-24. Those ratios seem overdone to me. From the 0.38" qpf, I'd guess closer to 5", which would obviously still be huge. The big forecast problem is that these last two gfs runs are such an outlier as far as qpf is concerned. For example, the 12Z Euro has virtually nothing and several others have only light amounts! However, the trend today has been steadily toward heavier for SC. So, it has to be considered as possible even as crazy as it sounds. The CHS and ILM NWS offices really have a nightmare on their hands as far as trying to forecast for this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 holy cow this trending toward the biggest snow in myrtle since 89 well as far as the gfs is concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 StnID: kcre Model: gfs3 Run: 20110121/1800 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Sleet Ratio: 2:1 || CarSnowTool Beta 5.4 Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ====================================================================================================================== 110121/2100Z 3 35008KT 45.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110122/0000Z 6 01008KT 37.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110122/0300Z 9 02010KT 34.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110122/0600Z 12 03011KT 31.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110122/0900Z 15 03013KT 30.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110122/1200Z 18 02015KT 27.1F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.3 0.031|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110122/1500Z 21 01014KT 24.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.5|| 0.9 0.055|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110122/1800Z 24 36013KT 24.3F SNOW 22:1| 4.4|| 5.3 0.205|| 0.29 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110122/2100Z 27 36010KT 25.3F SNOW 24:1| 2.1|| 7.4 0.087|| 0.38 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110123/0000Z 30 36009KT 23.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 7.4 0.000|| 0.38 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110123/0300Z 33 36007KT 22.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 7.4 0.000|| 0.38 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110123/0600Z 36 34006KT 22.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 Can someone tell me how much snow this is showing For my area please! Thank you! :thumbsup: I'm looking forward to many pics from all of our coastal neighbors I've got my fingers crossed for you all to get a sweet surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow, that would be mighty impressive for Myrtle Beach to pick up 7"+ of powdery snow with temperatures in the mid-20s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 holy cow this trending toward the biggest snow in myrtle since 89 well as far as the gfs is concerned 18Z GFS KMYR 110122/1200Z 18 01015KT 29.8F SNOW 11:1| 0.6|| 0.6 0.059|| 0.06 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110122/1500Z 21 36014KT 25.7F SNOW 11:1| 0.8|| 1.5 0.075|| 0.13 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110122/1800Z 24 36013KT 26.1F SNOW 22:1| 5.3|| 6.8 0.244|| 0.38 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110122/2100Z 27 36010KT 26.6F SNOW 24:1| 2.2|| 9.0 0.091|| 0.47 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110123/0000Z 30 36009KT 24.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 9.0 0.000|| 0.47 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sqwearl Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It sure is our turn after all the recent near misses. I don't know if I could take the heartbreak if this missed us east after everything missing us west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18Z GFS KMYR 110122/1200Z 18 01015KT 29.8F SNOW 11:1| 0.6|| 0.6 0.059|| 0.06 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110122/1500Z 21 36014KT 25.7F SNOW 11:1| 0.8|| 1.5 0.075|| 0.13 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110122/1800Z 24 36013KT 26.1F SNOW 22:1| 5.3|| 6.8 0.244|| 0.38 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110122/2100Z 27 36010KT 26.6F SNOW 24:1| 2.2|| 9.0 0.091|| 0.47 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110123/0000Z 30 36009KT 24.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 9.0 0.000|| 0.47 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 Can you post KCHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Can you post KCHS 18Z GFS KCHS 110122/0900Z 15 01011KT 34.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.024|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110122/1200Z 18 36012KT 29.8F SNOW 9:1| 1.1|| 1.1 0.118|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110122/1500Z 21 35011KT 25.7F SNOW 12:1| 2.0|| 3.1 0.165|| 0.31 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110122/1800Z 24 36009KT 26.6F SNOW 20:1| 3.1|| 6.2 0.157|| 0.46 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepSouthSC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 First I want to wish you guys along the coastal sections of the Carolinas the very best out of this, shoe horn is at work and telepathically trying to draw it closer to the coast, on back channel communications with the Gulf Stream and the 500mb vortmax! There still is some question on amounts, with some guidance keeping almost everything offshore, while others sling a healthy bit back. One has to give props to the Euro for catching this development on the tail end of the front when nothing else hinted at it, not even a single GFS or Canadian ens member. Granted, it trended further offshore, and now over the past 24 hrs looks like it may be coming west, but there are still uncertainties as it could go either way from center. The Euro originally had this trough going neg just off the GA coast, since then all the models have trended to pos, and are at a general agreement of positive orientation for the duration, even once well off the SE coast (see the 18z GFS H5 graphics below, positive orientation at 30hrs). However, this is a rather potent vort packet and any trend towards a less positive axis would enhance your chances along the coast of seeing measurable SN. Keep an eye on the RUC as the event is starting to come into this near term high res meso model's window. Any trend towards a less pos axis in the last 24 hrs could have sig implications for you. I wish you guys the best, and if it were not for a little weather get together here the Coastal Plain I have tomorrow evening, me and the mrs would be down at Riverside in Swansboro for dinner, and maybe some SN. GFS SE station output over the past 4 runs, that is a trend! Looking at your GFS output, Weather.... It's putting some light snow into Sumter County and flurries into lower Richland County. I wished there was a more western-like trend in the past 24-48 hours. It would've gotten very interesting for us, buckeye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I lived on columbia during the 89 event, we had flurries when myr had 14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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