Sat (Jan 22) coastal snow?

DopplerWx · January 21, 2011

12z Euro not looking so good for SN lovers along the Carolina coast...

SAV ---> 0 QPF, 700mb RH never goes above 41%, and surface temps are 5C

CHS ---> 0.04" QPF, 700mb RH tops out at 79%, and surface temps are 3C with 850's -2 to -4

MYR ---> 0.04" QPF, 700mb RH tops out a 85%, and surface temps are 4C with 850's -3 to -4

ILM ---> 0.08" QPF, 700mb RH tops out a 95%, and surface temps are 3.5C with 850's -4

How is the euro at this range?

sctvman · January 21, 2011

GFS Snow Depth map for hour 33:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=01&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=12&fhour=33&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

GaWx · January 21, 2011

Awesome...thanks so much for the info GaWx! Being this close to the event, should we worry about changes in the other direction or should we be confident that we are going to see snow on the coast? Should we even care what EURO says today? Sorry for all the questions...learning here! TIA

You're welcome. If the surface low/precip. shield gets too close to the coast, then, yes, other precip. forms could possibly occur. I probably wouldn't want it much closer than it is now.

Here's the rundown for CHS (city) based on the 12Z runs of today:

12Z GFS :0.30-0.35" So, ~3-4" of snow.

12Z UKMET give 0.14" vs. 0.10" on the 0Z UKMET...so ~1.5-2" of snow

12Z JMA and NAM have ~.03-.05" for CHS (city). so, ~0.5" of snow

12Z GGEM has ~0.02 for CHS vs. none on the 0Z GGEM. So, ~0.2-0.3" of snow.

12Z Euro has just about nada fwiw (perhaps 0.02-04" but my maps show nothing), similar to the 0Z Euro although slightly closer to the coast than it. So, flurries at best.

12Z NOGAPS has nada as have other recent runs. So, no snow per this model.

So, we still have a very wide range of possibilities even this close to the event! The average of the models is close to 1". Perhaps that is the best guess to go with right now. Keep in mind that the 12z GFS' major snow is clearly an outlier and, therefore, can't at all be trusted. I'd have to consider it to be only the best case scenario and, therefore, only a small possiblity. However, because the overall model trends have been for more qpf/low closer to the coast, I'd say it has a somewhat better chance of verifying (although still low) than if the trends were the other way.

Stormsfury · January 21, 2011

12Z gfs per MeteoStar vs. 6Z gfs qpf at SAV (inland airport..city would get more...close to 0.10"): .03" vs .01". However, first part of this IP or ZR since 850's start at +1 C. Coldest temp. now down to 31 F vs. 32 F on the 6Z gfs.

CHS airport: 12z gfs gives a whopping 0.26" of qpf all as snow! Lowest temp now down to 26F with the help of evap. cooling! This translates into ~3" of snow!!

MYR: 12Z gfs gives 0.18" of qpf all as snow with lowest down to 29F! This would mean ~2" of snow!

12z GFS bufkit gave .36" QPF all snow 4.5"

StnID: kchs   Model: gfs3   Run: 20110121/1200    Cloud RH threshold:  85%    Sleet Ratio: 2:1   || CarSnowTool Beta 5.4

Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SRat|Snow||TotSN    QPF ||TotQPF   Sleet||TotPL    FZRA||TotZR    S%| I%| L%
======================================================================================================================
110121/1500Z   3  35009KT  47.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110121/1800Z   6  36007KT  50.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110121/2100Z   9  01006KT  48.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110122/0000Z  12  02007KT  39.9F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110122/0300Z  15  03008KT  37.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110122/0600Z  18  03009KT  35.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110122/0900Z  21  02011KT  33.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110122/1200Z  24  01011KT  29.5F  SNOW     9:1| 0.5|| 0.5    0.059|| 0.06     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110122/1500Z  27  36010KT  27.0F  SNOW    10:1| 1.7|| 2.3    0.165|| 0.22     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110122/1800Z  30  36008KT  27.7F  SNOW    16:1| 2.2|| 4.5    0.138|| 0.36     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110122/2100Z  33  35007KT  32.5F  FZDZ     0:1| 0.0|| 4.5    0.012|| 0.37     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
110123/0000Z  36  01005KT  26.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 4.5    0.000|| 0.37     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110123/0300Z  39  01004KT  24.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 4.5    0.000|| 0.37     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110123/0600Z  42  01003KT  23.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110123/0900Z  45  32003KT  24.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0

110123/1200Z 48 30004KT 26.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

GaWx · January 21, 2011

12z GFS bufkit gave .36" QPF all snow 4.5"

StnID: kchs   Model: gfs3   Run: 20110121/1200    Cloud RH threshold:  85%    Sleet Ratio: 2:1   || CarSnowTool Beta 5.4

Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SRat|Snow||TotSN    QPF ||TotQPF   Sleet||TotPL    FZRA||TotZR    S%| I%| L%
======================================================================================================================
110121/1500Z   3  35009KT  47.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110121/1800Z   6  36007KT  50.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110121/2100Z   9  01006KT  48.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110122/0000Z  12  02007KT  39.9F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110122/0300Z  15  03008KT  37.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110122/0600Z  18  03009KT  35.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110122/0900Z  21  02011KT  33.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110122/1200Z  24  01011KT  29.5F  SNOW     9:1| 0.5|| 0.5    0.059|| 0.06     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110122/1500Z  27  36010KT  27.0F  SNOW    10:1| 1.7|| 2.3    0.165|| 0.22     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110122/1800Z  30  36008KT  27.7F  SNOW    16:1| 2.2|| 4.5    0.138|| 0.36     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110122/2100Z  33  35007KT  32.5F  FZDZ     0:1| 0.0|| 4.5    0.012|| 0.37     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
110123/0000Z  36  01005KT  26.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 4.5    0.000|| 0.37     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110123/0300Z  39  01004KT  24.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 4.5    0.000|| 0.37     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110123/0600Z  42  01003KT  23.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110123/0900Z  45  32003KT  24.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0

110123/1200Z 48 30004KT 26.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

Wow! Is this the Twilight Zone? Is this what "climate change" is all about?

Thanks, Mike. Actually, this isn't surprising based on the 12Z gfs model output I've seen. One thing I've noticed is that the bufkit #'s are higher than MeteoStar at CHS/SAV. Also, bufkit qpf has been higher than what recent gfs run maps have been showing at KCHS and at KSAV (the more inland airports, themselves) for this coastal event. So, I'm guessing that whereas MeteoStar is likely based on the airports, perhaps Bufkit is based on the cities. Do you know? For example, the qpf maps I've seen (two sources) have no more than ~0.25" of qpf at the CHS airport (it may even be a touch less..say ~0.23"). OTOH, the city does look to get ~0.36" of qpf per these same maps.

Check out this link's map:

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p48_048l.gif

cheapdad00 · January 21, 2011

JMA showing some love to the coast, especially the outer banks:

http://grib2.com/jma...THKPRP_48HR.gif

[but it is the JMA]

DopplerWx · January 21, 2011

18z NAM @24

DopplerWx · January 21, 2011

crossthread · January 21, 2011

I've Dl'ed Bufkit, and dern I'm stumped ATM on how to set it up....

SF, could you get Kilm soundings for around these parts? Please, (yes I'm a learner too)....

Just a reminder KLIM is also about 20 miles from the coast.... Where-as i'm about 5, and everything I've seen, WE here in ILM may be smacked, (surprised), tomorrow also...

Looks like oue local AFD is catching on though...

SaturdayPartly cloudy in the morning...then becoming mostly cloudy. A slight chance of light rain and light snow. Highs in the lower 40s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

hmm short summary....

**

Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...

as of 3 PM Friday...daybreak Saturday a deepening low pressure

system will be positioned roughly 200 miles offshore of Saint

Augustine Florida...tracking NE through the day Saturday to a

location approximately 400 miles east of Myrtle Beach SC by

evening. GFS is farther west hence wetter than its counterpart

NAM. For this package have not discounted either and decided on

a 5/2 blend of the GFS/NAM respectively for probability of precipitation...leaning more

to a wetter scenario. In doing this...then running a top down

winter weather methodology utilizing wet bulb effects and lower

troposphere thermal profiles...we are left with a slight chance

of sprinkles or flurries along the North Carolina coastal zones

from the late morning through afternoon. Normally we would not

advertise light frozen precipitation over coastal waters...but given the SSTs

and low dewpoints Saturday...have kept a light wintry mix over the

0-20 waters skirting mainly Brunswick...New Hanover...Pender

counties with flurry potential..no accumulations are expected in

the ilm forecast area but the mhx eastern zones have best chance.

sctvman · January 21, 2011

Any updates?

StormSC · January 21, 2011

15Z SREF.....this is a good model, right?

Stormsfury · January 21, 2011

This was for 12z GFS for KILM 1.7" of snow

StnID: kilm   Model: gfs3   Run: 20110121/1200    Cloud RH threshold:  85%    Sleet Ratio: 2:1   || CarSnowTool Beta 5.4

Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SRat|Snow||TotSN    QPF ||TotQPF   Sleet||TotPL    FZRA||TotZR    S%| I%| L%
======================================================================================================================
110121/1500Z   3  33016KT  43.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110121/1800Z   6  34012KT  44.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110121/2100Z   9  35011KT  42.6F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110122/0000Z  12  36010KT  36.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110122/0300Z  15  01010KT  32.7F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110122/0600Z  18  02010KT  31.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110122/0900Z  21  02012KT  30.9F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110122/1200Z  24  02014KT  29.5F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110122/1500Z  27  02014KT  30.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110122/1800Z  30  36012KT  31.3F  SNOW    16:1| 0.3|| 0.3    0.020|| 0.02     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110122/2100Z  33  01011KT  30.0F  SNOW    24:1| 1.2|| 1.5    0.051|| 0.07     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110123/0000Z  36  36010KT  30.6F  SNOW    22:1| 0.2|| 1.7    0.008|| 0.08     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110123/0300Z 39 35009KT 28.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 1.7 0.000|| 0.08 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

Stormsfury · January 21, 2011

15Z SREF.....this is a good model, right?

SREF is a various assortment. Short Range Ensemble Forecasts. also trended west .

kanc2001 · January 21, 2011

I've Dl'ed Bufkit, and dern I'm stumped ATM on how to set it up....

SF, could you get Kilm soundings for around these parts? Please, (yes I'm a learner too)....

Just a reminder KLIM is also about 20 miles from the coast.... Where-as i'm about 5, and everything I've seen, WE here in ILM may be smacked, (surprised), tomorrow also...

Looks like oue local AFD is catching on though...

hmm short summary....

**

Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...

as of 3 PM Friday...daybreak Saturday a deepening low pressure

system will be positioned roughly 200 miles offshore of Saint

Augustine Florida...tracking NE through the day Saturday to a

location approximately 400 miles east of Myrtle Beach SC by

evening. GFS is farther west hence wetter than its counterpart

NAM. For this package have not discounted either and decided on

a 5/2 blend of the GFS/NAM respectively for probability of precipitation...leaning more

to a wetter scenario. In doing this...then running a top down

winter weather methodology utilizing wet bulb effects and lower

troposphere thermal profiles...we are left with a slight chance

of sprinkles or flurries along the North Carolina coastal zones

from the late morning through afternoon. Normally we would not

advertise light frozen precipitation over coastal waters...but given the SSTs

and low dewpoints Saturday...have kept a light wintry mix over the

0-20 waters skirting mainly Brunswick...New Hanover...Pender

counties with flurry potential..no accumulations are expected in

the ilm forecast area but the mhx eastern zones have best chance.

KILM

110122/1800Z 30 36012KT 31.3F SNOW 16:1| 0.3|| 0.3 0.020|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110122/2100Z 33 01011KT 30.0F SNOW 24:1| 1.2|| 1.5 0.051|| 0.07 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110123/0000Z 36 36010KT 30.6F SNOW 22:1| 0.2|| 1.7 0.008|| 0.08 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

Stormsfury · January 21, 2011

Wow! Is this the Twilight Zone? Is this what "climate change" is all about?

Thanks, Mike. Actually, this isn't surprising based on the 12Z gfs model output I've seen. One thing I've noticed is that the bufkit #'s are higher than MeteoStar at CHS/SAV. Also, bufkit qpf has been higher than what recent gfs run maps have been showing at KCHS and at KSAV (the more inland airports, themselves) for this coastal event. So, I'm guessing that whereas MeteoStar is likely based on the airports, perhaps Bufkit is based on the cities. Do you know? For example, the qpf maps I've seen (two sources) have no more than ~0.25" of qpf at the CHS airport (it may even be a touch less..say ~0.23"). OTOH, the city does look to get ~0.36" of qpf per these same maps.

Check out this link's map:

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p48_048l.gif

I know it's weird how different sites have completely different interpretations at times with the same modeling data. I glanced at KCHS and in the ZFP- snow, sleet and ZR is in the forecast for Saturday morning, continued trends to the west and a nightmare unfolds for unsuspecting people that don't care about the weather, don't pay attention, etc.

with this scenario, and how to forecast, it's impossible. 50 miles difference can lead to nothing or a major snowstorm.

StormSC · January 21, 2011

Do you think any of us will go under a WWA tonight? My friends are thinking I'm crazy for saying we are getting snow tomorrow. :whistle:

Stormsfury · January 21, 2011

Do you think any of us will go under a WWA tonight? My friends are thinking I'm crazy for saying we are getting snow tomorrow.

wouldn't surprise me to see WWA's if this does materialize, but this is easily a short fuse scenario

matter of fact it is highlighted in the HWO from KCHS

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WINTER WEATHER...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE FLORIDA

COAST WILL TRACK NORTH AND NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE GEORGIA AND

SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY SPREAD BACK

TOWARD THE COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE CONDUCIVE FOR

WINTRY PRECIPITATION. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY

ON NON-PAVED SURFACES AND ELEVATED ROADWAYS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES

MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

MillzPirate · January 21, 2011

I just dont understand how with this track and 997 low, we cant get more precip thrown back.... its in a prime spot for eastern NC... can someone explain this?

Hugo · January 21, 2011

wouldn't surprise me to see WWA's if this does materialize, but this is easily a short fuse scenario

Well ILM isn't bullish on it. Their discussion says no accumulation. And the forecast is just rain/snow between 1pm and 2pm for Horry County.

kanc2001 · January 21, 2011

Stormsfury, you got a write up on dec '89? I know this is a completely different scenerio, but its sneaky like that one was so there are some similarities

kanc2001 · January 21, 2011

I just dont understand how with this track and 997 low, we cant get more precip thrown back.... its in a prime spot for eastern NC... can someone explain this?

my guess is dry air, similar to the last threat

KCHS

WHILE THE INITIAL UPPER JET WILL HAVE SHIFTED SE THIS EVENING...A

SECONDARY JET WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE LOCAL AREA TO

SEE UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE 115-125 KT

JET. THE UPPER FORCING AND THE ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS SUGGESTS

THAT SOME WINTRY PRECIP COULD BREAK OUT LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN

THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE PRECIP IN THE CLOUDS WILL

NEED TO FALL THROUGH SOME DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET.

THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...AND WE LOOK FOR AT

LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF A WINTER MIX OF PRECIP TO BEGIN CLOSE TO

DAYBREAK OVER THE EASTERNMOST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS

WOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR AND EAST OF US-17. WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING

AND SURFACE TEMPS DOWN CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK THERE WOULD BE

THE RISK OF SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE SC. BUT WITH A

LITTLE MORE OF NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE

TEMPS IN SE THE PRECIP WOULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF

RAIN...FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET.

ON STATION METEOROLOGISTS HAVE CONSIDERED ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY FOR THE MIX OF PRECIP. GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL SOME

UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE MIXED PRECIP WILL MAKE IT

ONSHORE...AND THAT THE BULK OF ANY WINTER WEATHER EVENT WOULD BE

SATURDAY...WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE THE ADVISORY. THE EVENING

AND OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS WILL NEED TO REASSESS THE

SITUATION...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CERTAINLY COULD BE

ISSUED. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO

ALL HAZARDS FOR ANY CHANGES THAT OCCUR. AND KEEP IN MIND THAT A

SMALL CHANGE OF THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER

SHORT WAVE COULD MEAN A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST.

THERE WILL BE A SHARP DELINEATION BETWEEN WHERE WE SEE WINTRY

PRECIP AND WHERE NOTHING OCCURS LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY

INLAND AREAS WILL NOT BE IMPACTED BY ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME

CLOUDS. AND IT IS THOSE FAR INLAND AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE COLDEST

TEMPS TONIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S ALONG THE NW TIER...TO

THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S FURTHER EAST...EXCEPT FOR A FEW MID

30S RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES.

Eastnc · January 21, 2011

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

343 PM EST FRI JAN 21 2011

...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO

SATURDAY EVENING...

.LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST

SATURDAY...RESULTING IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR EASTERN NORTH

CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS.

NCZ095-103-104-220900-

/O.NEW.KMHX.WW.Y.0003.110122T1800Z-110123T0300Z/

CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOREHEAD CITY...BEAUFORT...

EMERALD ISLE...NEWPORT...KILL DEVIL HILLS...KITTY HAWK...

NAGS HEAD...SOUTHERN SHORES

343 PM EST FRI JAN 21 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST

SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO

10 PM EST SATURDAY.

* ACCUMULATION: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH ARE LIKELY SATURDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES

ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM RODANTHE TO NEWPORT.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO

SATURDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY

Do you think any of us will go under a WWA tonight? My friends are thinking I'm crazy for saying we are getting snow tomorrow.

Stormsfury · January 21, 2011

Best course of action taken by KCHS. Short Fuse Scenario unfolding. So much uncertainty lends to where the low and track ultimately go and just how much moisture can be thrown back. Somewhat reminds me of Nov 2006 with a coastal bomb but the setup was a bit different. Dee 1989 similarities, the low developed after the arctic front swept through the region. biggest difference right now is in 1989 a 500mb low closed off over SC. Allowed more time to come up the coast and completely wrap moisture back around. I don't see anything suggesting a 500mb low closes off over the Carolinas this time. We're depending on close enough track to throw moisture back into the inland coastal counties.

DopplerWx · January 21, 2011

18z GFS says get the sleds ready.

StormSC · January 21, 2011

18z GFS says get the sleds ready.

Oh good grief...let this be true!!!

kanc2001 · January 21, 2011

bring it, I bet it trends even closer in the overnight runs :thumbsup:

18z bufkit may be pretty juicy

DopplerWx · January 21, 2011

This westward trend these past 2 runs on the GFS are incredible. .5" sitting JUST offshore. Good lord if this verifies there will be some surprised people here on the coast. With it being just 18hrs from the onset of the event I'd think that we'd have to start seeing some WWA's pop up soon.

StormSC · January 21, 2011

Guys is this really happening? I mean someone please pinch me....trying not to get excited...trying not to get excited. :popcorn:

StormSC · January 21, 2011

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=01&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=18&fhour=45&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

See if this link will work....SNOW!!

kanc2001 · January 21, 2011

Guys is this really happening? I mean someone please pinch me....trying not to get excited...trying not to get excited.

talk about the general population being caught off guard!

Member Statistics

Sat (Jan 22) coastal snow?

Recommended Posts

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Archived

Recently Browsing 0 members