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Sat (Jan 22) coastal snow?


burgertime

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How's the nam look? I'm not at my computer.

1) Of the last three NAM runs, the 12Z is easily the most favorable (and sort of comparable to yesterday's 18Z NAM) with qpf furthest west. It gives CHS (city itself but nada at the inland airport) ~.05" of qpf and SAV (city itself) ~.02" of qpf (nada at the more inland airport). The prior two runs gave both essentially nothing.

2) The 6Z GFS is easily the most favorable of the last four GFS runs as it is giving measurable snow to CHS and even down to NBC (Beaufort) and SAV, where Bufkit gives 0.1" of snow from 0.04" of qpf and temp.'s down to 31F! At CHS, Bufkit gives a whopping 1.7" of snow from 0.15" qpf with temp.'s dropping all the way down to 28 F! At MYR, it gives 1.3" of snow from 0.06" qpf and gets temp.'s down to 29 F.

3) I haven't looked at today's 12Z GFS yet.

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1) Of the last three NAM runs, the 12Z is easily the most favorable (and sort of comparable to yesterday's 18Z NAM) with qpf furthest west. It gives CHS (city itself but nada at the inland airport) ~.05" of qpf and SAV (city itself) ~.02" of qpf (nada at the more inland airport). The prior two runs gave both essentially nothing.

2) The 6Z GFS is easily the most favorable of the last four GFS runs as it is giving measurable snow to CHS and even down to NBC (Beaufort) and SAV, where Bufkit gives 0.1" of snow from 0.04" of qpf and temp.'s down to 31F! At CHS, Bufkit gives a whopping 1.7" of snow from 0.15" qpf with temp.'s dropping all the way down to 28 F! At MYR, it gives 1.3" of snow from 0.06" qpf and gets temp.'s down to 29 F.

3) I haven't looked at today's 12Z GFS yet.

To add to the above, the 12Z GFS has even more qpf from SAV to MYR (further west with the precip. shield) and is clearly the wettest of the last five GFS runs. Once it is available, Bufkit and MeteoStar data for this run will be interesting to say the least!

So, to summarize, the 12Z GFS run is the best of the last five and the 12Z NAM is the best of the last three. Trend is friendly.

Edit: 12Z gfs snowfall maps I've just seen actually give ~2-3" of snow from Edisto to MYR with lesser amounts south of there!

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StnID: kmyr Model: gfs3 Run: 20110121/1200 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Sleet Ratio: 2:1 || CarSnowTool Beta 5.4

Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L%

======================================================================================================================

110121/1500Z 3 34014KT 44.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110121/1800Z 6 35010KT 45.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110121/2100Z 9 36009KT 43.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110122/0000Z 12 01009KT 37.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110122/0300Z 15 03010KT 34.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110122/0600Z 18 03011KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110122/0900Z 21 02012KT 30.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110122/1200Z 24 02013KT 31.6F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.1 0.008|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110122/1500Z 27 01013KT 28.9F SNOW 15:1| 0.4|| 0.5 0.028|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110122/1800Z 30 36011KT 27.9F SNOW 20:1| 1.4|| 1.9 0.067|| 0.10 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110122/2100Z 33 36009KT 29.7F SNOW 23:1| 0.9|| 2.8 0.039|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110123/0000Z 36 36009KT 27.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 2.8 0.000|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

Can someone tell me how much snow this is for Myrtle? TIA!

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Thanks! It's looking really good for us, even better for you I think!

No problem! And yeah, I'm hoping the western trend continues. Wouldn't take much for us to get >.25" qpf at all. This will surprise a lot of people here on the coast. Not even a mention of any possibility here in CHS. I'm just excited about the possibility of getting snow in the middle of the day, it is so rare for us to not have to worry about temps at all!

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12Z gfs per MeteoStar vs. 6Z gfs qpf at SAV (inland airport..city would get more...close to 0.10"): .03" vs .01". However, first part of this IP or ZR since 850's start at +1 C. Coldest temp. now down to 31 F vs. 32 F on the 6Z gfs.

CHS airport: 12z gfs gives a whopping 0.26" of qpf all as snow! Lowest temp now down to 26F with the help of evap. cooling! This translates into ~3" of snow!!

MYR: 12Z gfs gives 0.18" of qpf all as snow with lowest down to 29F! This would mean ~2" of snow!

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12Z gfs per MeteoStar vs. 6Z gfs qpf at SAV (inland airport..city would get more): .03" vs .01". However, first part of this IP or ZR since 850's start at +1 C. Coldest temp. now down to 31 F vs. 32 F on the 6Z gfs.

CHS airport: 12z gfs gives a whopping 0.26" of qpf all as snow! Lowest temp now down to 26F with the help of evap. cooling! This translates into ~3" of snow!!

MYR: 12Z gfs gives 0.18" of qpf all as snow with lowest down to 29F! This would mean ~2" of snow!

Would downtown CHS get more than the airport?

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12Z gfs per MeteoStar vs. 6Z gfs qpf at SAV (inland airport..city would get more): .03" vs .01". However, first part of this IP or ZR since 850's start at +1 C. Coldest temp. now down to 31 F vs. 32 F on the 6Z gfs.

CHS airport: 12z gfs gives a whopping 0.26" of qpf all as snow! Lowest temp now down to 26F with the help of evap. cooling! This translates into ~3" of snow!!

MYR: 12Z gfs gives 0.18" of qpf all as snow with lowest down to 29F! This would mean ~2" of snow!

Awesome...thanks so much for the info GaWx! Being this close to the event, should we worry about changes in the other direction or should we be confident that we are going to see snow on the coast? Should we even care what EURO says today? Sorry for all the questions...learning here! TIA

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Wow, this could be a huge surprise! Lady Gaga Day is tomorrow, and so is College of Charleston and Citadel basketball games. 2"?

Yep I agree. No local mets are talking about the possibility. The CofC game is at 4, and the GFS says the event should start around noon and last into the atfernoon. We could have a HUGE mess on our hands if it verifies.

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Would downtown CHS get more than the airport?

I'd say "yes" due to the airport being down to 26F, leaving plenty of room. So, I could see the airport down to 26F while it is, say 30F near the coast. Since even higher qpf would be likely nearer to the coast (say ~0.30-0.35"), I'd think this could give an additional 1" or so downtown. So, perhaps 3" airport and 4" downtown? IF this occurs after last year's snow, all I could say would be "wow" considering climo!

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12z Euro not looking so good for SN lovers along the Carolina coast...

SAV ---> 0 QPF, 700mb RH never goes above 41%, and surface temps are 5C

CHS ---> 0.04" QPF, 700mb RH tops out at 79%, and surface temps are 3C with 850's -2 to -4

MYR ---> 0.04" QPF, 700mb RH tops out a 85%, and surface temps are 4C with 850's -3 to -4

ILM ---> 0.08" QPF, 700mb RH tops out a 95%, and surface temps are 3.5C with 850's -4

PGV ---> 0.01", 700mb RH 55%, surface temp, -1.5C, 850's -7C :axe:

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