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Sat (Jan 22) coastal snow?


burgertime

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Folks,

I spoke too soon in saying "no dice". The coast from Beaufort, SC, (0.04") to the city of Charleston, itself, (0.09') actually gets qpf on this run vs. ~nothing on the 0Z Euro. MYR also gets 0.09" vs. ~0.01" on the 0Z Euro. All qpf is for when 850's are 0C or colder. Trends, my friends, trends.

looks warm at hr 60 66 hr is better

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looks warm at hr 60 66 hr is better

Yes, taken literally, the 12Z Euro is quite a bit too warm at 2M. However, IF this setup really were to materialize (with those below 0C 850's) and IF we can somehow get some steady precip., those 2 meter temp.'s will likely be a good bit colder with a near isothermal layer from 850 mb to the sfc imo with maritime influences not there due to northerly winds. As I mentioned, the 12Z NAM now has SAV down to 32F (and td of 25) with light snow at10 AM Sat. The Euro's 2 meter temp.'s have a warm bias in these situations in the SE US. For example, SAV and CHS (cities, not the inland airport stations) both got down to as low as 32F on 1/10/11 when precip. was falling. However, the Euro runs had them both only down to near 40F as they had that 40F isotherm staying inland fron the immediate coast due to an overestimation of the marine layer's influence. Granted, those cold sfc temp.'s were helped by wedging from a high to the north, which brought the sfc down to colder than the 850 temp.'s. However, this time the 850's will be colder...so a better shot at snow if a nice precip. area can actually get established without raising 850's to above 0C.

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Looks like the euro was a decent run. Went from nada to .09" for CHS and MB. Hopefully this is just the beginning of the euro catching back on to what it was showing a few days ago and we will continue to trend better as we close in on the event. If we were sitting here 60hrs out with the NAM giving us .5" we'd be nervous as heck, but in this setup things can only get better.

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Latest AFD KILM 12:30PM...

Area forecast discussion

National Weather Service Wilmington NC

1228 PM EST Thursday Jan 20 2011

Synopsis...

a warm front will lift north across the area this afternoon. A

strong cold front will move quickly off the coast by Friday

morning...bringing a chance for rain. Arctic high pressure will

build in Friday and persist through Sunday. A coastal low may

impact the region on Monday and Tuesday. Cool and dry high

pressure returns on Wednesday.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...

as of 10 am Monday...pressure pattern finally taking some shape as

the morning GOES on...with weak high pressure ridging into the

Carolinas from the north. Ill-defined front to our south will lift

north as a warm front later today...allowing for maximum temperatures very

close to normal this afternoon. Current forecast highs in the

middle/upper 50s look well on track.

Cold front will take shape to our west and quickly be pushed east

across the area overnight as a northern stream impulse scoots from

the upper Midwest well into the Great Lakes...and phases with a

southern stream vorticity currently over the Texas Panhandle. Speed of

this system will keep this system starved for moisture...so the

window for precipitation is very narrow on either side of frontal passage. Current

30-40 probability of precipitation for tonight looking a bit generous...but will maintain

for now and reassess when the full suite of 12z model data is in.

&&

Short term /Friday through Saturday night/...

as of 3 am Thursday...cold front will be exiting the area Friday

morning with cold and dry high pressure building in behind it for

the weekend. Winds will veer around through the morning hours as

front moves farther off shore. Any lingering moisture along the

coast will be scoured out by early afternoon as deep northwest flow sets

up. Pcp water values up closer to an inch early morning will drop

to less than a quarter of an inch after noon on Friday. Expect

skies to clear Friday afternoon with gusty northwest winds. 850 temperatures up

near 5c Friday morning will drop to less than 0c by afternoon. Expect

temperatures to remain in the 40s most places. Dew point temperatures will be

down in the teens by afternoon and should remain below 20 through

most of Sat. Winds should hold up enough to keep temperatures from

dropping into the teens Friday night but expect readings down in the

lower end of the 20s over most of the area.

Developing coastal low off the southeast coast on Sat may brush

close enough to the Carolina coast to produce some clouds but

current forecast holds any pcp off shore. Shortwave digs down

across the East Coast and should hold the system off shore. By Sat

evening the shortwave swings off shore and expect cold and dry

weather to continue into Sunday. Temperatures on Sat will have trouble

making it into the 40s and will drop down once again into the 20s.

&&

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...

as of 3 am Thursday...cold and dry weather will start out the

period on Sunday as Arctic high pressure dominates. High pressure

gets squeezed out on Monday as low pressure system tracks up from

the Gulf Coast moving northeast up through the off shore waters of

the East Coast. Coastal trough develops ahead of the low along the

Carolina coast as cold air remains wedged in through inland

Carolinas. Expect best lift and chance of pcp late Monday into early

Tuesday. Track and strength of this system will affect the forecast

for the first couple of days of the work week. Right now the European model (ecmwf)

and Gem track the low closer to the coast while the GFS holds it

off shore more. Should see some drying on Wednesday as system

departs local area. Have not introduced any mixed pcp in the

forecast although it may come into play for a very short time.

Temperatures should continue below normal through the week.

&&

Pray for a'lil more WEST Trend My friends..... 50/75 miles?

I'm about 10-14 miles from the Coast/beach...

Though as the bird flies, most likley 5 miles...

Seems like WE also have a good chance with the NEXT system, hopefully and this is just a "pre-lude" to a real good Coastal crusher Early next week?.....

Heres a intesting forcast Map from wunderground..

Dated Sat, jan 22@ 1PM....

post-2767-0-38877600-1295553155.jpg

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The .1" creeps closer to the coast with each run. Although if this is going to be an accumulating snow we better start seeing some serious trends tonight.

Actually, the trend on the 18Z nam is further from the coast vs. the 12Z nam. Remember, folks, I'm just a messenger and am not too fond of guns being pointed at me. ;)

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0z GFSgives a little taste to KCHS - look a little down the road and wants to give an hour of ice a little later in the frame.

110122/0300Z  27  02006KT  36.3F       	0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00 	0|  0|  0
110122/0600Z  30  03008KT  35.1F       	0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00 	0|  0|  0
110122/0900Z  33  02010KT  32.2F       	0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00 	0|  0|  0
110122/1200Z  36  01010KT  30.6F  SNOW 	6:1| 0.1|| 0.1    0.012|| 0.01 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110122/1500Z  39  36009KT  29.7F  SNOW 	9:1| 0.3|| 0.4    0.035|| 0.05 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110122/1800Z  42  36008KT  34.5F  SNOW    13:1| 0.0|| 0.4    0.008|| 0.06 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110122/2100Z  45  35008KT  39.0F       	0:1| 0.0|| 0.4    0.000|| 0.06 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00 	0|  0|  0
110123/0000Z  48  35006KT  32.4F       	0:1| 0.0|| 0.4    0.000|| 0.06 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00 	0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110123/0300Z  51  36004KT  30.6F       	0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00 	0|  0|  0
110123/0600Z  54  02004KT  29.8F       	0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00 	0|  0|  0
110123/0900Z  57  32003KT  30.0F       	0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00 	0|  0|  0
110123/1200Z  60  31003KT  30.4F       	0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00 	0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110123/1500Z  63  30003KT  41.0F       	0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00 	0|  0|  0
110123/1800Z  66  24003KT  48.0F       	0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00 	0|  0|  0
110123/2100Z  69  24003KT  48.0F       	0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00 	0|  0|  0
110124/0000Z  72  27003KT  34.9F       	0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00 	0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110124/0300Z  75  VRB02KT  32.9F       	0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00 	0|  0|  0
110124/0600Z  78  VRB02KT  31.8F   ICE 	0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00 	0|  0|  0
110124/0900Z  81  36004KT  36.7F       	0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00 	0|  0|  0
110124/1200Z  84  01005KT  36.7F       	0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00 	0|  0|  0

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0z GFSgives a little taste to KCHS - look a little down the road and wants to give an hour of ice a little later in the frame.

Nice to see it give us something. A big change from earlier runs that left us high and dry. Lets hope tomorrows trends are good seeing as better data on the s/w will be ingested.

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The shortwave in question is still not in the good data network yet. It should be in the 12z guidance. These are the types of setups that can bring last minute surprises to the coastal plain of the Carolinas. I've seen it before and sure I haven't seen the last of those either.

SF, how right can you be..Living on the Coast here most of My life, see, I've been a commerical fisherman et al, and I don't give a dern what the **MODELS** call for on the coast.

I've seen to many "BUSTS", where NWS/or even our Local TV Mets bust's all the time. For example, precip. forcast's, wind direction etc..

Hopefully, It just may become, like in 89, a Nowcast type thing...

If you remember back then, We were NOT even to get sn,or NO Precip, but ended up with 20+ inches....(here in ILM)...

So, were with-in 24/36 hours of the event, ALOT of things could change....

I'm not buying into the Models saying No sn/rain for you as a Low creeps up the coast..

Though if it happens, Lordy, they got it right "for once"...

from our KLIM AFD

>snip<

Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...

as of 3 am Friday...a low pressure system off the Florida coast Sat

morning will move northeast with moisture on the back end brushing

the Carolina coast Sat afternoon. A shortwave digging down the East Coast

should help to push it farther off the coast away from area by the

end of the day but may bring enough moisture Sat afternoon along the

coast to produce some pcp. At this point it looks like shortwave

will help to trigger some middle to high clouds over the area but pcp

should hold off shore. May see a few flurries but moisture profiles

and sounding data still showing plenty of dry air at the low levels.

For now will keep all pcp off shore as models are still indicating

this.>snip<

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