tarheelwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 the short range are catching up to Euro. This might even trend a little more west, not much but some, enough to bring .60 or .75" qpf inland for the coastal counties. I hope you guys get dumped on. Doesn't it appear to be trending a bit stronger - so as to possibly help out with the early week storm? Maybe help to hold in the cold air? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 the short range are catching up to Euro. This might even trend a little more west, not much but some, enough to bring .60 or .75" qpf inland for the coastal counties. I hope you guys get dumped on. Thanks foothills. We appreciate you posting your thoughts here for us coastal guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Robert, one thing I noticed on the new NAM. At 78h, it has much higher heights over Greenland than the 84h on the earlier run. Also the 50/50 low is west of its earlier run. Looks like we may be seeing more -NAO influence. Thoughts?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaydog Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Certainly getting more interested down here...not even close to pulling the trigger, but the gun is out of the holster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 the short range are catching up to Euro. This might even trend a little more west, not much but some, enough to bring .60 or .75" qpf inland for the coastal counties. I hope you guys get dumped on. +1 It happens, but to get a all snow sounding on the coast is a feat in and of itself, let alone and all snow sounding an entire event. I remeber living near RWI in 89 and seeing Wilmington get 12+ of snow, while we barely got an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Certainly getting more interested down here...not even close to pulling the trigger, but the gun is out of the holster. What's your location jaydog? MB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Certainly getting more interested down here...not even close to pulling the trigger, but the gun is out of the holster. Talked to Skip this afternoon, and while I did not watch his evening forecast, based on the conversation and his talking to with producers, they were introducing the chance for immediate coastal sections. He was more concerned about the Mon-Tues event, but both of us agreed that the low in the GL would affect the flow, and slide the HP offshore. This could be a big deal for areas along the coast not used to seeing much, the parcel is just coming onshore in BC, and sampling by the EC likely occurred over Russia. Interesting to see if it trends back closer to the coast once the packet is in the US RAOB network. Fun times ahead for areas that most often get left out, may be making a trip to Riverside in Swansboro for dinner Saturday night, and a walk on N Topsail if it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaydog Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yep...right here in the "Dirty Myrtle". What's your location jaydog? MB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Any chance we get a good trend tonight with the GFS? It hasn't looked too good the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaydog Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 OH Skip! I may have to drop Marvin a line in the AM to see what he's thinking. It does look interesting, and would be nice to cash in on some of the action our inland areas have seen so far. Although a day's worth of snow on December 26th (.10 accum), and sleet/ZR last week already make this one hell of a winter for the Grand Strand, another pure snow event would be fun. Talked to Skip this afternoon, and while I did not watch his evening forecast, based on the conversation and his talking to with producers, they were introducing the chance for immediate coastal sections. He was more concerned about the Mon-Tues event, but both of us agreed that the low in the GL would affect the flow, and slide the HP offshore. This could be a big deal for areas along the coast not used to seeing much, the parcel is just coming onshore in BC, and sampling by the EC likely occurred over Russia. Interesting to see if it trends back closer to the coast once the packet is in the US RAOB network. Fun times ahead for areas that most often get left out, may be making a trip to Riverside in Swansboro for dinner Saturday night, and a walk on N Topsail if it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Robert, one thing I noticed on the new NAM. At 78h, it has much higher heights over Greenland than the 84h on the earlier run. Also the 50/50 low is west of its earlier run. Looks like we may be seeing more -NAO influence. Thoughts?? probably so. Also the first storm (Thurs/Fri) gets out up there quicker since it doesn't strengthen til later now, this allows enough spacing for the next system to develop the Southeast coastal. Not sure what this means for the next upstream system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Local met just posted this, looks nice for us on the coast. Valid for 4pm Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Local met just posted this, looks nice for us on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 MHX gets absolutely crushed: 110122/2200Z 70 01013KT 29.5F SNOW 19:1| 0.4|| 0.4 0.020|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110122/2300Z 71 01012KT 29.3F SNOW 20:1| 2.4|| 2.7 0.118|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110123/0000Z 72 01011KT 29.3F SNOW 26:1| 3.7|| 6.4 0.142|| 0.28 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 110123/0100Z 73 01011KT 29.1F SNOW 27:1| 2.6|| 9.0 0.094|| 0.37 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110123/0200Z 74 01011KT 28.8F SNOW 24:1| 1.0||10.0 0.043|| 0.42 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110123/0300Z 75 36011KT 28.4F SNOW 16:1| 0.5||10.5 0.031|| 0.45 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110123/0400Z 76 35011KT 27.9F SNOW 17:1| 0.4||10.9 0.024|| 0.47 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110123/0500Z 77 34011KT 27.7F SNOW 15:1| 0.1||11.0 0.008|| 0.48 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110123/0600Z 78 34010KT 27.5F 0:1| 0.0||11.0 0.000|| 0.48 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 And before anyone else asks, nobody outside of MHX on Bufkit sees any appreciable snowfall except for ILM(4.8"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 MHX gets absolutely crushed: I hate to do this, but @ 11" on MHX's doorstep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I hate to do this, but @ 11" on MHX's doorstep What was 12z euro showing for ILM and Morehead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The GFS isn't as sharp with the s/w and allows most of the development just offshore, but it does have a little on SC coast briefly. The s/w in the Lakes is coming further south and may phase with it offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What was 12z euro showing for ILM and Morehead? Not sure about MHX, but the 12z was 0.33" for ILM (all SN), compared to the previous 0z run which was over six-tenths of an inch. Robert, not sure how much stock I would put into the GFS at this point, it seems to be the last to catch on, and as a whole, we have seen the guidance trends towards the EC over the past 24 hrs, although odds are it is too far offshore for all but the immediate coastal sections. 0z UKMET @ 72hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The 0z NAM has ~0.05" of qpf falling as light snow SAT AM at SAV with the temp. falling to 33 F and 850's falling from 0C to -2C. However, this is an outlier amongst its other recent runs and other models. Also, climo says snow is rare at SAV. Therefore, despite it being only 2.5 days away, I'm giving this snow scenario only a slim chance to occur....say 5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The 0z NAM has ~0.05" of qpf falling as light snow SAT AM at SAV with the temp. falling to 33 F and 850's falling from 0C to -2C. However, this is an outlier amongst its other recent runs and other models. Also, climo says snow is rare at SAV. Therefore, despite it being only 2.5 days away, I'm giving this snow scenario only a slim chance to occur....say 5%. 0z NAM has 0.04 QPF KCHS one hour of snow and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 0z NAM has 0.04 QPF KCHS one hour of snow and that's it. And the 0z ECMWF at 72 hrs says this is a no go SF, mucho pos tilt compared to previous runs 0.04" for ILM, all SN, but nothing of consequence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I wasn't even paying attention and taking a break from weather battling this stupid cold. Delta was showing me guidance for CPR when I about needed CPR when the 12z NAM showed something brewing well offshore and perked my interest. Now that I started eyeballing it some, poof. maybe I'll go back in hiding for a day and see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I wasn't even paying attention and taking a break from weather battling this stupid cold. Delta was showing me guidance for CPR when I about needed CPR when the 12z NAM showed something brewing well offshore and perked my interest. Now that I started eyeballing it some, poof. maybe I'll go back in hiding for a day and see what happens That seems to be the general pattern here too, once I start tracking it the threat goes to sh!t. Gas bill was 150 last month, Dec 10th - Jan 12th, wife likes to keep the thermo 75-plus and the furnace works triple time, tired of the cold, would like another SN, and am more than ready for the growing season, a win-lose situation all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 You don't see that everyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 this one is just about dead... it would take quite the shift in guidance to pull this thing back... and within 72 hours, thats unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 So close... yet so far away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 6z doesnt leave as much energy behind as 0z... phases more.... albeit the s/w coming out of canada is stronger on this run... if it could have left more energy behind we might have been in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Good Morning everyone! So how are we looking on the coast this morning? I'm afraid to look! Ok, so we are still close, but no go yet? Still time, still time...I'm holding onto hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 this one is just about dead... it would take quite the shift in guidance to pull this thing back... and within 72 hours, thats unlikely Not really. A small shift west by 50 miles puts the coast back in the game. This is about as close as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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