Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Good question CR (are we on a first name basis yet, Chris here)... Physically, it is almost impossible to move this 200 miles west, while it could much easier go 200 miles east. Where and to what extent development happens depends on several factors. First is the piece of energy that is coming onshore in British Columbia as I type this, second is the PVA tail (aka frontal system) from the system to our north that will be grazing the MA and NE on Friday. And the last piece of the puzzle, which is related to the Friday system is what gets left back, does anything, don't know... The quicker the trough axis goes neg tilt, the closer to the coast the low will be, period, and a negative tilt orientation is still in question as the GFS and GGEM do not show that, nor did the 12z European. Previous ECMWF runs had it going neg off the SE coast, too late to draw it back though. What we want is a miss for the NE system and a draped quasi-stationary front along N FL, with some energy hanging back in TX that coupled with a sharp sw into the central plains would be interesting to say the least, and a closer/deeper to the coast scenario more likely to throw appreciable QPF inland. This is not out of the guidance envelope in terms of possibilities, but less than 20%. Ok, I gotcha. These systems that form just offshore are always tricky to forecast. The Jan 2000 storm showed that in a big way (not saying this will be that), but this situation as you describe it is certainly fraught with great complexity...so much so that no model is capable of precisely resolving it. Now at least, I'm fully aware of what to watch for. Let the games begin! Oh, and I'm Jason. Nice to meet you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 How did the GFS look for coastal sections? GFS has been a miss all along with this event, but is now starting to show development on the tail end, although entirely too late and ots for all but the fishes. NWS NCEP Model Analyses and Forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I might just stay up for the NAM tonight, unless I go to bed early out of boredom and apathy from watching my Wolfpack get destroyed by Duke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I might just stay up for the NAM tonight, unless I go to bed early out of boredom and apathy from watching my Wolfpack get destroyed by Duke. If you're staying up with the hopes that this thing is going to trend inland, then I'm afraid you're going to have more disappointment on top of the play of the 'Pack (I'm a Pack fan too, by the way, and I like the way we have played in the 2nd half but I'm afraid it's too much to overcome). Anyway, I don't think there is any chance that this affects anyone away from the immediate coast, and even that might be tough. The genesis of this system offshore (as opposed to over the Gulf) and the kicker on it's heels means it will have virtually no chance of throwing moisture back inland.But that is just my very humble opinion. I would be happy to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If you're staying up with the hopes that this thing is going to trend inland, then I'm afraid you're going to have more disappointment on top of the play of the 'Pack (I'm a Pack fan too, by the way, and I like the way we have played in the 2nd half but I'm afraid it's too much to overcome). Anyway, I don't think there is any chance that this affects anyone away from the immediate coast, and even that might be tough. The genesis of this system offshore (as opposed to over the Gulf) and the kicker on it's heels means it will have virtually no chance of throwing moisture back inland.But that is just my very humble opinion. I would be happy to be wrong. Being a Pack fan has taught me well how to deal with disappointment. It has prepared me for chasing winter storms in the SE. More often than not, you're not going to get the result you desire, while at the same time watching the Blue Devis (mid-Atlantic) and Tarheels (northeast) win title after title (snowstorms). I was kidding about staying up for the NAM, as I'll be up since it comes out soon. . But yeah, I think we have little chance inland, but the reason we all like weather is because we just never know. We'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Being a Pack fan has taught me well how to deal with disappointment. It has prepared me for chasing winter storms in the SE. More often than not, you're not going to get the result you desire, while at the same time watching the Blue Devis (mid-Atlantic) and Tarheels (northeast) win title after title (snowstorms). I was kidding about staying up for the NAM, as I'll be up since it comes out soon. . But yeah, I think we have little chance inland, but the reason we all like weather is because we just never know. We'll see.... at-least you guys have the football card, something Duke does not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 at-least you guys have the football card, something Duke does not... Can't play that card on you though, at least for several more years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 18z NAM vs. 00z NAM another shift west, good run for us on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 18z NAM vs. 00z NAM another shift west, good run for us on the coast. Congrats Florida too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 18z NAM vs. 00z NAM another shift west, good run for us on the coast. was about to post the same thing, a little more and we are in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What this really shows is just how friggin good the Euro model is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Snowing in Hilton Head on the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Being a Pack fan has taught me well how to deal with disappointment. It has prepared me for chasing winter storms in the SE. More often than not, you're not going to get the result you desire, while at the same time watching the Blue Devis (mid-Atlantic) and Tarheels (northeast) win title after title (snowstorms). I was kidding about staying up for the NAM, as I'll be up since it comes out soon. . But yeah, I think we have little chance inland, but the reason we all like weather is because we just never know. We'll see.... Well said, well said. Being a Pack fan is much like being a snow lover in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow, snow chase down to Wilmington or OBX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NAM is snow for Charleston all the way up the coast into NC. Another small trend west and we (coastal guys and gals) will be sitting pretty. The thing I love the most is that the temps shouldn't be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Oh, wow, -15 omegas just off the coast. Some serious lift going on there. Just need that 1000 mb low pressure another 100 miles west and... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 sharp gradient in QPF along the coast, Cape Lookout ftw!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Oh, wow, -15 omegas just off the coast. Some serious lift going on there. Just need that 1000 mb low pressure another 100 miles west and... this one is ours buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Do I see negative tilt? this one is ours buddy I agree. I actually will be in Greenville Saturday, so I don't need too much of a west trend, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Loving the trends. Did you see all that junk in the trunk left over from the "miss"? It was a lot more this run. 200 miles to the west might be out of the question, but that trough sure does look a lot sharper per your animation.... you never know.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 massive gradient in QPF along the coast, Cape Lookout ftw!!! (((((((((1989))))))))) should we even go there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Good gracious! That precip cutoff is unreal, a small trend could mean the difference between flurries or a huge snow for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 (((((((((1989))))))))) should we even go there? I wanted to after seeing just how close this is per this run of the nam, all I know is that for once we are in the perfect spot for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If this storm turns out to be legitimate I'm definitely chasing it this weekend. I'm thinking Myrtle beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 was about to post the same thing, a little more and we are in Let the west trend begin.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If this storm turns out to be legitimate I'm definitely chasing it this weekend. I'm thinking Myrtle beach. Head down here to charleston, nothing like seeing king street and the markets covered in snow. Last feb was unreal seeing people making snowmen on king st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Head down here to charleston, nothing like seeing king street and the markets covered in snow. Last feb was unreal seeing people making snowmen on king st. How much snow did you get on 1/25/00? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 How much snow did you get on 1/25/00? I was living in Hartsville, SC then, and I got 9" up there. Last Feb I got only 1" downtown because of the marine layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If this storm turns out to be legitimate I'm definitely chasing it this weekend. I'm thinking Myrtle beach. MYR to ILM was the jackpot in the '89 storm, not that this will be the same, BUT......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 the short range are catching up to Euro. This might even trend a little more west, not much but some, enough to bring .60 or .75" qpf inland for the coastal counties. I hope you guys get dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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