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Sat (Jan 22) coastal snow?


burgertime

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just stopping by quickly . very intrigued by events along Se coastal Nc today.

looks like 12z nam gave .75 qpf from harkers island over to ocracoke to hatteras.

radar looks impressive over that area.....watchin to see if that 35dbz stuff pushes inland anywhere

watchin the 0c 850 line http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=17#

good luck to all wishing to see snow

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Still light snow/ip here in ILM, starting to "dust" the areas.......

<------- say N/A big ? mark,,, WTH is that?

EDiT our "NOWcast".....

This AfternoonNumerous snow showers. Snow accumulation around an inch...mainly over the southern half of the County. Breezy. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. North winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Under a WWA until 5 pm...

KILM local afd vaild 11 AM this morning..

Area forecast discussion

National Weather Service Wilmington NC

1155 am EST Sat Jan 22 2011

Synopsis...

some wintry precipitation is possible across coastal counties

today as low pressure develops offshore. After a brief respite

Sunday...unsettled conditions will return to the area Monday and

Tuesday followed by high pressure for middle to late week.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...

as of 10:30 am Saturday...surface analysis showed that low

pressure was developing between the 12z forecasted positions by

the overnight suite of guidance. 12z WRF came in with a position a

little too far south yet still showed an overall slight westward shift

in moisture and precipitation fields. This has lead to the raising of a

Winter Weather Advisory for coastal NC zones. Light wintry precipitation

already spreading across the Cape Fear region. So far the precipitation

has been in the form of snow grains as the saturation layer is

fairly shallow and in the 6-8kft range...well below the dendritic

growth layer. This should deepen fairly quickly by 18z to include

this layer as very strong vorticity swinging through the main trough

moves up the coast. Snowfall gradient is expected to be

considerable with up to 2 inches possible right at the cape with

amounts dropping off quickly as one moves inland. Precipitation will be

fighting very dry air and according to the WRF this will maintain

itself through most of the event to keep accums low as currently

forecast. The previous GFS has been showing that precipitation rates

overwhelm the dry air. May make adjustments if needed when new GFS

and future sref guidance becomes available. Infrared satellite showing

the first SW-NE band of colder cloud tops indicating that the low

offshore should start deepening. WV also shows good divergence

over most of the southeast in the upper levels.

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ughh

looks like screw job round 3 for coastal SC :axe:

I have a different take. To me it isn't a screw job but just a big bad tease by a poor model (GFS) that likely raised expectations too much for some. When considering the relative rarity of accumulating snow there, it almost never is a screw job in my view since it is normal to not get it. CHS has had only 10 1"+ snows since 1940 or one every 7 years and only about five 3"+ or about one every 14 years. So, with the GFS on its own with those major snowfall amounts (3"+), it was likely to bust, regardless, despite the favorable model trends of yesterday.

Actually, looking back at history since the 1700's for the SAV-CHS corridor (and probably also MYR), FEB has been the month with the most multiinch snows:

2010, 1973, 1968 (SAV), 1914, 1899, 1895, 1803, 1800, 1792, 1773, 1726, among others, all had 2"+ snow...say ~1 every 25 years on average in FEB, alone, and I could have missed a couple others. Dates in Feb. included:

8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14-15, 15, 21-22, 25, 28; There were apparently also three on ~3/4 (1969, 1837, and, I believe, 1835 though I haven't seen actual amounts for 1835).

So, note the max during 2/8-15. If one were to try to pick the primary seasonal max. for this area for major snow, I'd pick this period. Secondary max. would probably be 2/21-3/4. Based on the way this winter has been going, the way the models look (no shortage of Arctic highs), and when considering this climo, I'm not going to give up on the chance for something special at least until we get well into Feb. This will become especially interesting if strong blocking were to reappear as it often does when there is early winter severe blocking.

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To everyone here, us *COASTIES*, I've seen several panels of different ensembles of -0 850's locked in our COASTAL AREAS, with the up-coming Storm treat thats getting all the attention....

Several coastal peeps have asked about this with NO response or explanition...

I think NOW is *WHY* were seeing this cold air "Dome" if i can call it that, sticking around for our next Storm, that has everyones attention....

Heres the panel....

WE maybe, a big one at that, that we'll get a bigger "surprize" on the upcoming event?

:snowman:

post-2767-0-22187200-1295718412.gif

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I have a different take. To me it isn't a screw job but just a big bad tease by a poor model (GFS) that likely raised expectations too much for some. When considering the relative rarity of accumulating snow there, it almost never is a screw job in my view since it is normal to not get it. CHS has had only 10 1"+ snows since 1940 or one every 7 years and only about five 3"+ or about one every 14 years. So, with the GFS on its own with those major snowfall amounts (3"+), it was likely to bust, regardless, despite the favorable model trends of yesterday.

Actually, looking back at history since the 1700's for the SAV-CHS corridor (and probably also MYR), FEB has been the month with the most multiinch snows:

2010, 1973, 1968 (SAV), 1914, 1899, 1895, 1803, 1792, 1773, 1726, among others, all had 2"+ snow...say ~1 every 30 years on average in FEB, alone, and I could have missed a couple others. Dates in Feb. included:

8, 10, 12, 13, 14-15, 15-16, 21-22, 25, 28; There were apparently also three on ~3/4 (1969, 1837, and, I believe, 1835 though I haven't seen actual amounts for 1835).

So, note the max during 2/8-16. If one were to try to pick the primary seasonal max. for this area for major snow, I'd pick this period. Secondary max. would probably be 2/21-3/4. Based on the way this winter has been going, the way the models look (no shortage of Arctic highs), and when considering this climo, I'm not going to give up on the chance for something special at least until we get well into Feb. This will become especially interesting if strong blocking were to reappear as it often does when there is early winter severe blocking.

your right, all praise Dr. No I need to pay for access to the Euro in the future

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METAR KNKT 221654Z 36017G22KT 1 1/4SM -SN BKN021 OVC038 M02/M06 A2990 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 2 SLP120 P0000 T10221061

SPECI KNKT 221712Z 01013KT 1SM -SN VV012 M03/M06 A2989 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 2 P0000

SPECI KNKT 221729Z 01012KT 1SM -SN BR VV008 M03/M05 A2988 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 2 P0000

METAR KNKT 221754Z 01016G25KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV007 M03/M06 A2987 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 2 SLP112 P0001 60001 T10331056 11006 21033 58016

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