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Sat (Jan 22) coastal snow?


burgertime

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You're welcome. If the surface low/precip. shield gets too close to the coast, then, yes, other precip. forms could possibly occur. I probably wouldn't want it much closer than it is now.

Here's the rundown for CHS (city) based on the 12Z runs of today:

12Z GFS :0.30-0.35" So, ~3-4" of snow.

12Z UKMET give 0.14" vs. 0.10" on the 0Z UKMET...so ~1.5-2" of snow

12Z JMA and NAM have ~.03-.05" for CHS (city). so, ~0.5" of snow

12Z GGEM has ~0.02 for CHS vs. none on the 0Z GGEM. So, ~0.2-0.3" of snow.

12Z Euro has just about nada fwiw (perhaps 0.02-04" but my maps show nothing), similar to the 0Z Euro although slightly closer to the coast than it. So, flurries at best.

12Z NOGAPS has nada as have other recent runs. So, no snow per this model.

So, we still have a very wide range of possibilities even this close to the event! The average of the models is close to 1". Perhaps that is the best guess to go with right now. Keep in mind that the 12z GFS' major snow is clearly an outlier and, therefore, can't at all be trusted. I'd have to consider it to be only the best case scenario and, therefore, only a small possiblity. However, because the overall model trends have been for more qpf/low closer to the coast, I'd say it has a somewhat better chance of verifying (although still low) than if the trends were the other way.

Based on the current radar, I feel that kudo's are likely going to be owed to king Euro as far as CHS is concerned. The dry air seems to be winning and acting as a force field to the heavier precip. The GFS looks to bust horribly (no surprise since it was such an outlier) and the UKMET doesn't look to have done well, itself. Anyone disagree with regard to CHS?

Edit: no kudo's to NOGAPS because it had the precip. way offshore.

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