burgertime Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Discuss here...looks like the Euro is close out to 84, the west trend (precip shield wise) is your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Discuss here...looks like the Euro is close out to 84, the west trend (precip shield wise) is your friend. we need to get eyewall or stormsfury in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yes, hello a little more info please. Is the threat getting better or worse, meaning, snow or no snow? It sounds like the Euro just showed less snow, but a go. When should other models get on board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Just popped in and saw this threat. Interesting, stormfury if you're lurking please give us your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 I think right now the big issue is just going to be how close to the coast does that low get when it bombs. The good news is that the models have it bombing. I'll bet the 00z Euro comes in closer the coast with this one but only time will tell. Someone with more knowledge can chime in with some real thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yes, hello a little more info please. Is the threat getting better or worse, meaning, snow or no snow? It sounds like the Euro just showed less snow, but a go. When should other models get on board? StormSC, I think what foothills meant in the other thread is that the EURO is slightly stronger with the low and the precip field is trending west with the heavier qpf. .75 just off MYR. 850's look ok, may be some surface issues though. But i'd like to hear what I met has to say in this thread, because I'm far from skilled on this, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 StormSC, I think what foothills meant in the other thread is that the EURO is slightly stronger with the low and the precip field is trending west with the heavier qpf. .75 just off MYR. 850's look ok, may be some surface issues though. But i'd like to hear what I met has to say in this thread, because I'm far from skilled on this, lol Gotcha...I know the other day I kept hearing "the coast will get slammed" and "foot of snow on the coast." It sparked my interest, but I couldn't get any other info on it. Just reading what the guys are saying and assuming I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc87 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 it would be nice to get some pro advice i'm 35 miles from the coast of NC this is the first i've heard about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 18z NAM is really close with the snow on the coastal areas of NC...SC is little far off but it won't take much. Had 2-4 just right on the edge of the coast. Verbatim it would probably be an inch for folks who live right on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 18Z NAM is so stinking close to me! Gets OBX though! More trends baby, more trends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Great minds! Posting at the same time, lol! Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 UGH so close. Still 78hrs out so plenty of time to trend. Even a 50mile trend west would get us on the coast. Looks like temps are plenty cold enough and wouldnt be a problem right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 FWIW, Allan posted a tidbit on it in his blog, and I'm sure he will continue to discuss it in later postings. I am still watching a follow-up shortwave on the heels of this system that will drop into the southeast Saturday. The ECMWF and it’s Ensemble continue to show development closer to the coast than the GFS or Canadian model. In fact the 00z run once again shows some light snow across the NC/SC coastal plain and sections Saturday night and Sunday morning. If the 00z Euro were exactly right, we could be looking a nice little snow event for southeast NC, the Outer Banks, and eastern SC with perhaps some flurries as far northwest as the Triangle. Continue reading on Examiner.com: Coastal sections may see some snow this weekend, bigger storm possible next week - Raleigh Weather | Examiner.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 18z NAM says congrats Cape Lookout! Go figure, Euro further offshore, NAM closer to the coast. The parcel in question is in a data sparse area south of AK, Euro ingest likely came from over Russia that put it onto the threat a couple days ago, and we could see it trend back. A couple of the GGEM ens members, 9 & 17 were nice hits, especially for coastal sections. As stated earlier by many, the closer you are to the coast, the better, especially true for SE NC and NE SC folks. may have to make the short trip Saturday night if this actually materializes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 UGH so close. Still 78hrs out so plenty of time to trend. Even a 50mile trend west would get us on the coast. Looks like temps are plenty cold enough and wouldnt be a problem right? Right, ALL SNOW per the 0z ECMWF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 From this morning's Euro run: MYR: 0.30 with the bulk occurring Sat evening. Upper levels cold enough for snow. GFS and NAM suggest sfc wet bulbs would support snow Sat evening, Euro sfc temps are borderline for snow (but it may have a warm bias with the sfc temps, not sure). ILM: 0.33, otherwise, everything else is similar Looks to me like the immediate coast would be just cold enough for snow. All comes down to precip. Euro has been persistent with showing light precip along the coast and a little inland, but not much support from the other models. The incoming wave has trended stronger, is strengthening as it approaches the coast, and has a good track for the SC coast up to Cape Hatteras. If you can keep this look that the Euro is showing, you've got a good shot at seeing some flakes fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Right, ALL SNOW per the 0z ECMWF... Awesome. Good to know the euro had it, hopefully it jumps back on board tonight. Are temps good on the euro as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 18z NAM says congrats Cape Lookout! Go figure, Euro further offshore, NAM closer to the coast. The parcel in question is in a data sparse area south of AK, Euro ingest likely came from over Russia that put it onto the threat a couple days ago, and we could see it trend back. A couple of the GGEM ens members, 9 & 17 were nice hits, especially for coastal sections. As stated earlier by many, the closer you are to the coast, the better, especially true for SE NC and NE SC folks. may have to make the short trip Saturday night if this actually materializes my interest is definitely perked up, interesting TWC continues (36 hours now) to advertise mixed precip here on Sat, with no mention by anyone else locally, not even of a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm really trying not to get too excited about this, but my area has been so close the last 2 storms. I am happy that most everyone else has had some snow, but I truly want to get some snow this go around! Plus it will be on the weekend, so no missing work or school. Come on, give it up for the coastal peeps!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 my interest is definitely perked up, interesting TWC continues (36 hours now) to advertise mixed precip here on Sat, with no mention by anyone else locally, not even of a possibility. Believe it or not the weather chick on WMBF news Saturday evening made notice to a potential on this Saturday. That was when I started looking on here for any discussion. I thought she had lost her mind. You are right though...no one is speaking of this potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 UGH so close. Still 78hrs out so plenty of time to trend. Even a 50mile trend west would get us on the coast. Looks like temps are plenty cold enough and wouldnt be a problem right? And for that, you need the trough to go neg tilt earlier, similar to what this run of the NAM showed, but sooner, i.e. over N FL/E AL. There is little doubt at this point we will see development on the tail end, tip of the hat to the EC for that one. Now we just need it to trend closer to the coast and deeper, and for that we need this wave to go neg tilt earlier. 0z ECMWF was neutral at 84 hrs over the mouth of the MS, neutral over the FL panhandle at 90, and neg tilt off the SE coast at 96 hrs. The 12z run reverted back to previous Euro runs in that it did not take on a neg tilt, even off the SE coast at 90hrs, just neutral orientation. This run of the NAM is similar to prior EC runs, excluding todays 12z, in that there is a slight neg tilit in the 78 and 84hrs panel. Furthermore, this run missed the phase with the trough and left some energy back hanging over FL, and maybe even some left over TX. We need that energy to come into play in order to intesify this backside parcel, and possibly give a more favorable orientation, and resultant closer to the coast scenario. The miss @ 42hrs (energy over the Carolinas and GA is separated from the energy over the OH Valley and PA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm starting to have a good feeling about this one....much more so than the event next week. I think some could be in for a nice surprise here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm starting to have a good feeling about this one....much more so than the event next week. I think some could be in for a nice surprise here. Yeah, I got the feeling, but it is not good for us... Immediate coastal sections do much better in these setups where development occurs along a stalled front off the SE coast. QPF drops off rapidly as you get away from the coast, and that is given we do see moisture get slung back, which is still in question. For us, we want as much junk leftover in the trunk as possible from the UL trough moving through the NE on Friday, we literally want a strung out mess from that system. While the folks in the MA and NE won't be happy, a weaker system for them implies less phasing, and a greater chance the front stalls in N FL. Also, that could, and I stress could, leave some energy back over TX that would interact with our wave. Still a ways out and this could go either further offshore, or closer to the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah, I got the feeling, but it is not good for us... Immediate coastal sections do much better in these setups where development occurs along a stalled front off the SE coast. QPF drops off rapidly as you get away from the coast, and that is given we do see moisture get slung back, which is still in question. For us, we want as much junk leftover in the trunk as possible from the UL trough moving through the NE on Friday, we literally want a strung out mess from that system. While the folks in the MA and NE won't be happy, a weaker system for them implies less phasing, and a greater chance the front stalls in N FL. Also, that could, and I stress could, leave some energy back over TX that would interact with our wave. Still a ways out and this could go either further offshore, or closer to the coast... At 500mb the GFS looks better than the NAM...might be a better run for the coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah, I got the feeling, but it is not good for us... Immediate coastal sections do much better in these setups where development occurs along a stalled front off the SE coast. QPF drops off rapidly as you get away from the coast, and that is given we do see moisture get slung back, which is still in question. For us, we want as much junk leftover in the trunk as possible from the UL trough moving through the NE on Friday, we literally want a strung out mess from that system. While the folks in the MA and NE won't be happy, a weaker system for them implies less phasing, and a greater chance the front stalls in N FL. Also, that could, and I stress could, leave some energy back over TX that would interact with our wave. Still a ways out and this could go either further offshore, or closer to the coast... i know its clique, but does this at all compare to Dec '89? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 i know its clique, but does this at all compare to Dec '89? thanks Similar in that is was development on the tail end, but the H5 maps looked sig better for that event compared to this one. I don't have link handy, but I did check them out on the PSU e-wall site a couple days ago, when the Euro was showing a more favorable solution, and I used that for the comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 18z UKMET, this is going to be close, immediate coastal sections will likely cash in on several inches if this verified, trough axis is neutral going negative tilt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What would it take to get this whole process to move 200 miles or so west? Is that even physically possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What would it take to get this whole process to move 200 miles or so west? Is that even physically possible? Good question CR (are we on a first name basis yet, Chris here)... Physically, it is almost impossible to move this 200 miles west, while it could much easier go 200 miles east. Where and to what extent development happens depends on several factors. First is the piece of energy that is coming onshore in British Columbia as I type this, second is the PVA tail (aka frontal system) from the system to our north that will be grazing the MA and NE on Friday. And the last piece of the puzzle, which is related to the Friday system is what gets left back, does anything, don't know... The quicker the trough axis goes neg tilt, the closer to the coast the low will be, period, and a negative tilt orientation is still in question as the GFS and GGEM do not show that, nor did the 12z European. Previous ECMWF runs had it going neg off the SE coast, too late to draw it back though. What we want is a miss for the NE system and a draped quasi-stationary front along N FL, with some energy hanging back in TX that coupled with a sharp sw into the central plains would be interesting to say the least, and a closer/deeper to the coast scenario more likely to throw appreciable QPF inland. This is not out of the guidance envelope in terms of possibilities, but less than 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 How did the GFS look for coastal sections? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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