nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 it all comes down to this, that low has to come out faster. If its sits and that high slides off its a rainy solution. If it ejects faster its snowier. Seems like a again its gotta be the right timing. I do like it came east, though, but in the end it meant nothing. Of course, the storm could end up missing out to sea. As ORHWXMAN said in the SNE forum, it's a complex set-up so the details aren't too important. Suffice to say there's a potential for a winter storm Tuesday/Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 it all comes down to this, that low has to come out faster. If its sits and that high slides off its a rainy solution. If it ejects faster its snowier. Seems like a again its gotta be the right timing. I do like it came east, though, but in the end it meant nothing. If it comes that far east in one run, I'd say it's maybe the start of a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 should also note on the storm, there really is no cold air anywhere. Even where its below frz in the region its 28-32 range... the whole oh valley into mich is all abv freezing...the only cold air is nne, and thats not really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 it doesnt hug the coast. the low goes from just east of hse to just east of cape cod, thats well east of nj I took the added step of adding approx where the low is at 144 and then drew a straight line to where it is at 168 ..not due north ... Is that a fair representation of track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 should also note on the storm, there really is no cold air anywhere. Even where its below frz in the region its 28-32 range... the whole oh valley into mich is all abv freezing...the only cold air is nne, and thats not really cold. seems like we may need a weaker storm where overunning will give us snow without changeover or just the storm moving in before HP leaves but then again fastwer storm could mean OTS solution no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Better image of the NOGAPS @ 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I took the added step of adding approx where the low is at 144 and then drew a straight line to where it is at 168 ..not due north ... Is that a fair representation of track? yes here, il show you hr 150...it may be like 150 miles east, pt is its far east...courtesy of stormvista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 seems like we may need a weaker storm where overunning will give us snow without changeover or just the storm moving in before HP leaves but then again fastwer storm could mean OTS solution no? there also looks like a weak northern stream storm that is north of us so that may not help either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 yes here, il show you hr 150...it may be like 150 miles east, pt is its far east...courtesy of stormvista Well that low is about sub 1000 or deeper and i would imagine that the QPF on the western side would be much greater and with what I am seeing there it would appear that from about ABE N & W would be cold enough for snow... Now granted i am basing this on the look of the Nogaps at 144 with it being further to the west.....but also with the positioning of the lines there....on the image above... I definitely am not buying the lack of QPF on the western side of the equation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 ECM means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 ECM means Although it's hard to tell with 24-hour increments, it looks as if most of I-95 from PHL north, and certainly NYC north, would stay mostly snow on the ensemble mean. That's not a surprise given that the operational ECM was a warm/amplified outlier compared to the GFS and GGEM, with a track that suggested a coastal snowstorm. The ensembles have been doing a very good job lately and were one of the main signals that the last Miller B would come further NW, so I'm going to trust this depiction as much as one can at 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 6z GFS still looks to be suppressed with the Tuesday storm...it leaves a lot of energy behind in the SW, eventually forming a cut-off low there. Only flurries/-SN for I-95 on this run, although it's a close call. Temperatures are plenty cold with the -10C isotherm at 850mb near NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GGEM ensembles. Most east of the OP. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=144&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Without even checking I wonder if the reason the NOGAPS is so west with the low is because of its progressive nature screwing it over two fold...one it may not be blowing the low up off the SE Coast at 72-90 hours enough (the eventual 50/50 low) and two it could be sliding the high out too fast....this may be a situation where the NOGAPS being west and amplified is not necessarily as bad as it one would assume...its funny though how its been west on tomorrow's event and the one last week from well out and it appears it may ultimately hit both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 <br />6z GFS still looks to be suppressed with the Tuesday storm...it leaves a lot of energy behind in the SW, eventually forming a cut-off low there. Only flurries/-SN for I-95 on this run, although it's a close call. Temperatures are plenty cold with the -10C isotherm at 850mb near NYC.<br /> While it suppresses the Tuesday storm, it does show a coastal for D8-9. Not the same one the Euro is showing, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm a bit surprised that Upton is referring to last night's Euro as a big flood potential.. I mean.. to me, temps don't look all that bad.. It looks like the 850 zero line and 2M zero line are within 30 miles or so of NYC. They make it out to sound like it's extremely warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Euro would be snow to heavy rain back to mod snow. Given that it wouldnt be all rain and the temps would cool back down quickly, I agree, flooding would be mitigated especially with the melt we had for the past two days. Reading HPC this morning was funny, its a rip and read of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Question to the mets- Is it fair to assume that we want the storm today to wind up (strengthen) in the Northern Atlantic waters as much as possible? Will it not act as a block for the modeled H over the great lakes/New England, that is to be our only form of cold air supply for this potential storm, from sliding further east? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 While it suppresses the Tuesday storm, it does show a coastal for D8-9. Not the same one the Euro is showing, right? That's a different storm...the GFS leaves behind a ton of energy in the Southwest, allowing a cut-off to form there. The cut-off eventually tracks east and forms another Miller A at Day 8-9 that destroys the East Coast. I'm a bit surprised that Upton is referring to last night's Euro as a big flood potential.. I mean.. to me, temps don't look all that bad.. It looks like the 850 zero line and 2M zero line are within 30 miles or so of NYC. They make it out to sound like it's extremely warm. I think this is more of a snow threat for the area than a flooding threat; I can't see temperatures getting that warm with a coastal to our east and a departing arctic airmass. The ECM means, GFS, and GGEM are much less amplified than the Euro and keep the NYC metro all snow, albeit with much less QPF and hence a nuisance event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 I understand Upton's flood concern for a few reasons. One, this looks to be a prolonged QPF event. Two, before Monday's general 0.5-1" QPF they said that the moisture content was basically 1-3" of water in NE NJ and 2-4" over CT. If you were to add another general 0.5" for tomorrows event in NE NJ that brings it up to about 2.5"-4-5" in NE NJ and puts CT in the 3.5-5.5" range. Generally we may have lost about 0.2" thanks to the warmer temps yesterday. We all know how cold temps will become on Friday so the snow is going nowhere fast. Pump in another 1.5" of widespread rain, pump surface temps into the lower 50's like I believe the 12z EC indicated and loose all the snowpack in one shot combined with frozen ground and you get what a 5-7" rain would do at any time of the year, cause widespread flooding. Albeit probably not major flooding. A bigger concern to me is if this stays all snow and dumps another 1-2' over the area, we are really stacking the TNT for the early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I understand Upton's flood concern for a few reasons. One, this looks to be a prolonged QPF event. Two, before Monday's general 0.5-1" QPF they said that the moisture content was basically 1-3" of water in NE NJ and 2-4" over CT. If you were to add another general 0.5" for tomorrows event in NE NJ that brings it up to about 2.5"-4-5" in NE NJ and puts CT in the 3.5-5.5" range. Generally we may have lost about 0.2" thanks to the warmer temps yesterday. We all know how cold temps will become on Friday so the snow is going nowhere fast. Pump in another 1.5" of widespread rain, pump surface temps into the lower 50's like I believe the 12z EC indicated and loose all the snowpack in one shot combined with frozen ground and you get what a 5-7" rain would do at any time of the year, cause widespread flooding. Albeit probably not major flooding. A bigger concern to me is if this stays all snow and dumps another 1-2' over the area, we are really stacking the TNT for the early spring. boy, I hope temps don't get into the lower 50's. If the 00Z Euro was anything reasonably close to what's gonna happen, we shouldn't get anywhere near those kind of temps, however, I do agree that this system has a potential to distribute high QPF values... and yes, if we pile on the snow the rest of this winter and stay cold and then all of sudden, turn on the torch, then it would be a lot of water to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I understand Upton's flood concern for a few reasons. One, this looks to be a prolonged QPF event. Two, before Monday's general 0.5-1" QPF they said that the moisture content was basically 1-3" of water in NE NJ and 2-4" over CT. If you were to add another general 0.5" for tomorrows event in NE NJ that brings it up to about 2.5"-4-5" in NE NJ and puts CT in the 3.5-5.5" range. Generally we may have lost about 0.2" thanks to the warmer temps yesterday. We all know how cold temps will become on Friday so the snow is going nowhere fast. Pump in another 1.5" of widespread rain, pump surface temps into the lower 50's like I believe the 12z EC indicated and loose all the snowpack in one shot combined with frozen ground and you get what a 5-7" rain would do at any time of the year, cause widespread flooding. Albeit probably not major flooding. A bigger concern to me is if this stays all snow and dumps another 1-2' over the area, we are really stacking the TNT for the early spring. this happened in either 93 or 96 (i can't remember which) down here in the philly area........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 this happened in either 93 or 96 (i can't remember which) down here in the philly area........... 96. A week after the blizzard, we had at least 2-3" of rain with very high (50's) temps and dews. 30" of snow was gone in two days. I don't want to see that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah 96 was nuts all the snow most of us thought we'd have snow on the ground for weeks or months but the following week all the snow was gone at knobles park they have flood markers and 96 was their worst flooding ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah 96 was nuts all the snow most of us thought we'd have snow on the ground for weeks or months but the following week all the snow was gone at knobles park they have flood markers and 96 was their worst flooding ever Yes. But 1996 replaced all the snow and then some with great February, March and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yes. But 1996 replaced all the snow and then some with great February, March and April. Yeah that was a special treat getting more snow after the big rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah 96 was nuts all the snow most of us thought we'd have snow on the ground for weeks or months but the following week all the snow was gone at knobles park they have flood markers and 96 was their worst flooding ever that year went from one of the best years to one of the worst years as a snow lover in less than a week for me. over 3' of snow gone overnight. terrible flooding. that was horrible. and on top of that most of the storms that followed in Feb and March missed my area to the east. but I still have fond memories of getting the big blizzard on sunday/monday followed by another 18" that friday. who knows maybe 2 big storms back to back will happen yet this year. (without the flood that followed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS keeps the storm south for the most part. Southern stream lags behind majorly and the northern stream doesn't amplify much as it approaches the area. Let's see what we can get with the southern stream in the next few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 another northern stream shortwave overrides the southern stream and there's clipper potential by 156 at the same time, the southern stream is going neutral and there is yet again northern stream energy dropping by and will likely try to link up for hours 168+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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