tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 hr 156 sub 984 just east of the cape interior new eng gets crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Slide that high west or make the storm faster...Im absolutely thrilled with this setup right now, how can we not be, what a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I believe it stays frozen from harrisburg-scranton..... It would stay frozen all the way to the coast with a low 200 miles off the Delmarva. Especially with -20C 850s before the storm. Not buying this run's warmth for a second, and I hope no one else is either. TRACK TRACK TRACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Verbatim places like KFWN stay frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I believe it stays frozen from harrisburg-scranton..... yea it does, but not much precip really on the cold side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It would stay frozen all the way to the coast with a low 200 miles off the Delmarva. Especially with -20C 850s before the storm. Not buying this run's warmth for a second, and I hope no one else is either. TRACK TRACK TRACK. Even with the high moving off the New England Coast and screaming Southeast Winds? Taken verbatim it may not totally be out to lunch..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It would stay frozen all the way to the coast with a low 200 miles off the Delmarva. Especially with -20C 850s before the storm. Not buying this run's warmth for a second, and I hope no one else is either. TRACK TRACK TRACK. while i agree, i can see how its getting the warmth. High slides east we get southeast winds and floods the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 verbatium on this run phl and nyc see very little frozen qpf, even though the 850s are south for the first part the 2m temps are in the mid to upper 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Some places would change back to snow as the low moves away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 DAY 7: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 144 hrs.... 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Literally goes from -5 degree lows to rain in just over a day. Not buying that..No Way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 while i agree, i can see how its getting the warmth. High slides east we get southeast winds and floods the coastal plain. Shouldn't winds change to more NE as the coastal bombs? The track really argues for an I-95 snowstorm, and that's mostly what I look at when I'm viewing model guidance five days out. Temperatures and QPF are more prone to biases independent of the H5 set-up, and the Euro always has a warm/dry bias...just look at how low QPF was for the Friday event until this 0z run tonight increased it. I also think the storm may occur a little earlier than the ECM depicts based on how overrunning precip is organizing in the Plains on the GFS at 84. Also, the 0z ECM clearly trended east from 12z and 0z last night, which tracked the low inland. There's nothing to say the model isn't going to trend more especially with the 50/50 low in place and the fact that other models such as the GFS and GGEM have the storm missing far out to sea. Finally, we have -20C 850s Monday morning. Logic tells you it would be a snowstorm with an arctic airmass in place. I'm also well north of NYC with elevation, so I'd get a great front-end dump probably on the Euro verbatim before changing over to rain/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 while i agree, i can see how its getting the warmth. High slides east we get southeast winds and floods the coastal plain. With all that cold air in Place probably would be alot of Sleet than but still not too worried about Rain at this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The NAO looks to be neutral during this storm, but the lack of a 50/50 low is going to allow that high to move off the Northeast Coast. Even with a bitterly cold airmass prior to the storm moving up the coast, temps would rise drramatically along the coastal plain with a raging Southeast Wind. Still plenty of time to track it, but my gut tells me the Atlantic Pattern may screw us this go around.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Shouldn't winds change to more NE as the coastal bombs? The track really argues for an I-95 snowstorm, and that's mostly what I look at when I'm viewing model guidance five days out. Temperatures and QPF are more prone to biases independent of the H5 set-up, and the Euro always has a warm/dry bias...just look at how low QPF was for the Friday event until this 0z run tonight increased it. I also think the storm may occur a little earlier than the ECM depicts based on how overrunning precip is organizing in the Plains on the GFS at 84. Also, the 0z ECM clearly trended east from 12z and 0z last night, which tracked the low inland. There's nothing to say the model isn't going to trend more especially with the 50/50 low in place and the fact that other models such as the GFS and GGEM have the storm missing far out to sea. Finally, we have -20C 850s Monday morning. Logic tells you it would be a snowstorm with an arctic airmass in place. I'm also well north of NYC with elevation, so I'd get a great front-end dump probably on the Euro verbatim before changing over to rain/ice. yea the winds would shift to the northeast. Like you said im just glad to shifted to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 verbatium on this run phl and nyc see very little frozen qpf, even though the 850s are south for the first part the 2m temps are in the mid to upper 30s We need that high to stay in place and not book it east. SE winds are an absolute killer just about any time of year, and the flow looks quite amplified so that the maximum amount of warm air floods north as well. I'd like for it to be a weaker, suppressed storm. In Ninas w/o blocking, it's easy for any cold air to rapidly be whisked away by the SE Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 With all that cold air in Place probably would be alot of Sleet than but still not too worried about Rain at this point.. Me neither...Euro is way too warm in the longer range usually, it burned me a bunch forecasting 90-degree days this summer. I really like the H5 depiction and the track of the coastal, argues for a solid snowstorm in my book especially considering the antecedent arctic airmass. We've also seen a pretty aggressive trend on the Euro towards moving the low farther east, which comes more in line with what the GFS and GGEM are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Isnt that a Nor'Easter Track Anyway Hence Drawing in NE winds ? I must say If we have Almost Record Cold temps the Day before a storm and we get a driving Rainstorm I will feel like putting my head through the wall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The NAO looks to be neutral during this storm, but the lack of a 50/50 low is going to allow that high to move off the Northeast Coast. Even with a bitterly cold airmass prior to the storm moving up the coast, temps would rise drramatically along the coastal plain with a raging Southeast Wind. Still plenty of time to track it, but my gut tells me the Atlantic Pattern may screw us this go around.... GFS has a 50/50 low in place prior to the storm: I'm not too worried about SE winds but I live north of the city at elevation...obviously a different story for those in LI/NYC, but one thing to remember is that SSTs are only in the mid 30s right now so there's a limit to how much you can warm even with a maritime source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 My question is how do we go from hugging the coast at 144 hrs to hugging the coast at 168 hrs...but in between that time its 200 miles east of Cape May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Isnt that a Nor'Easter Track Anyway Hence Drawing in NE winds ? I must say If we have Almost Record Cold temps the Day before a storm and we get a driving Rainstorm I will feel like putting my head through the wall.. ive seen it before. The storm in the late 90s or early 2000s super bowl sunday. was low in the upper single digits. Temp rose quick;y. Got like 2-3 inches of snow then to ice then to rain. The surface winds may switch to ne, but you dont know what the mid levels are like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Miss PT's posts here. He has Wxoutlooks website. See you lurking PT so care to comment on your thoughts for Next Tues in Tri-State area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 also to note, the brutal cold is slotted for mon morn, this storm starts a day and a half later. So its not like it does that warmth in less than 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 My question is how do we go from hugging the coast at 144 hrs to hugging the coast at 168 hrs...but in between that time its 200 miles east of Cape May? it doesnt hug the coast. the low goes from just east of hse to just east of cape cod, thats well east of nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 also to note, the brutal cold is slotted for mon morn, this storm starts a day and a half later. So its not like it does that warmth in less than 24 hrs The Euro seems a little slower with the storm which allows the high pressure to slide east more. Still think this is a snowstorm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 also to note, the brutal cold is slotted for mon morn, this storm starts a day and a half later. So its not like it does that warmth in less than 24 hrs I will start worrying if it is showing all that warmth a couple days from now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 also to note, the brutal cold is slotted for mon morn, this storm starts a day and a half later. So its not like it does that warmth in less than 24 hrs If the storm came in earlier than Tues night would that make it a snowier solution? What are your thoughts Tombo on this turning to rain? Seems like the track moving east helps us out here, no? Your gut believe this is snow to rain, snow to rain back to snow or just snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Miss PT's posts here. He has Wxoutlooks website. See you lurking PT so care to comment on your thoughts for Next Tues in Tri-State area? Hard to keep it cold enough at all levels without a strong cold high to the north and it has moved out due to the absence of any significant blocking as mentioned previously here. But the models this year have been terrible even on basic features such as these. ECMWF and GFS have both had a warm bias. It would not shock me if at some point in future runs there is more blocking indicated and a cold high to the north. Then again, it also wouldn't shock me if there was no cold high. All we can do is wait and see. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If the storm came in earlier than Tues night would that make it a snowier solution? What are your thoughts Tombo on this turning to rain? Seems like the track moving east helps us out here, no? Your gut believe this is snow to rain, snow to rain back to snow or just snow? it all comes down to this, that low has to come out faster. If its sits and that high slides off its a rainy solution. If it ejects faster its snowier. Seems like a again its gotta be the right timing. I do like it came east, though, but in the end it meant nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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