Neblizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Only if we had a negative NAO to work in tandem with the massive +PNA ridge, we probably would be seeing another Blizzard.... heres hr 156 of the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If PDII arrived a day later its mostly rain...its the only KU event I think where the NAO was not negative though I might be wrong on that....this is the only way to really get a KU even though with a +NAO or east based -NAO since a deep system is generally going to cut inland when the NAO is positive or east based. I think Feb 12 2006 might have had a neutral or positive NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif am i missing something about the NAO? looks like its going Negative to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif am i missing something about the NAO? looks like its going Negative to me yes, but that doesn't determine if its west or east based. The nao shown there is east based most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 yes, but that doesn't determine if its west or east based. The nao shown there is east based most likely. Exactly as Tom pointed out, it's east of Iceland which technically counts as a -NAO, .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Does anybody recall what happened around 2-26-03? It's a top 500 mb analog on CIPS for this storm @ hr 120. that was a MECS....a very large one with a long duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 that was a MECS....a very large one with a long duration. not in Jersey it wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 not in Jersey it wasn't. correction...my bad I confused that with the presidents day storm of that season, same month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 so far on the euro, the northern stream is a good bit faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 through hr 120 the euro has signicantly lower hgts on the ec. The h5 setup is arranged like the gfs and ggem more sw to ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 correction...my bad I confused that with the presidents day storm of that season, same month. No prob. Wishful thinking though. Hopefully next week is just as big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 EC DAY 5: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Euro is more organized than the GFS through 126 hrs...looks less amplified than it's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 hr 126 on the euro says we will continue to give the east coast snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 1012mb low on the Florida Panhandle at 132 hrs already light overrunning snow into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 hr 126 on the euro says we will continue to give the east coast snowstorms It's going to try it's best to get warm this run..we will see..heights are pretty amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 hr 132 has a sub 1012 low in the norheast gom by the bend in the fl panhandle...a lot lower hgts on the ec compared to 12z... lgt precip up to phl lgt to mod up to dc and balt..hvr precip along carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Very borderline snow at 138 hours..low pressure is extending up the entire east coast. H5 is ready to go nuts..and the surface is a bit warm, but probably snow. 850 0c line south of Cape may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 hr 138 has a sub 1008 low bout 75 -100 miles east of myrtle beach, the trof is starting to go neg tilt... mod precip up to phl mod to hvy in dc, but 850 line is right there to nyc about to get into lgt to mod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 1004 on OBX at 144 hrs. 850 0c line to Staten Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It's going to try it's best to get warm this run..we will see..heights are pretty amplified. It's going to be hard to change NYC to rain in reality with the storm...1036mb high over NNE with a very cold antecedent airmass and a Gulf Low forming. 5H chart at 120 hrs suggests you'd get a coastal which should keep winds flowing off the high pressure to the north. Even if the Euro shows it cutting inland and changing us to rain, I'll have a hard time believing it especially with the GFS and GGEM being out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Doesn't the bagginess in the heights on the 126 that was posted indicate the type of track the low pressure will take? See the bagginess all the way down the coast to NE GA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 EC DAY 6: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Literally goes from -5 degree lows to rain in just over a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 hr 144 has a sub 1004 low about 50 miles east of cape fear... hvy precip from balt to nyc but to warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Surface low is 990-something way east of Ocean City MD...but it's driving rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Literally goes from -5 degree lows to rain in just over a day. ECM always has a warm bias dude...you can toss those 850s... My rule with models is always look at the track until the immediate short range...don't worry much about temps and precip. That's a good track for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 EC DAY 6: note to tech guys: we need an emoticon with a flamethrower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 hr 150 has a sub 992 low about 200 miles east of lewes. hvy precip over nyc to bos lgt to mod over phl but to warm not much precip into the cold side of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 hr 144 has a sub 1004 low about 50 miles east of cape fear... hvy precip from balt to nyc but to warm I believe it stays frozen from harrisburg-scranton..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.