earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 you know if you would of just showed the audio to that and not the video, i would of thought it was a video of some other sort, just saying :lmao: :lmao: Holy sh** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 That would be a perfectly timed scenario, with the storm possibly riding up with the HP to north maintaining the cold air mass, of course most storms need perfect timing. I didn't track PDII, but this seems starkly similar in regards to the high to the north, but it also depends whether or not that HP scoots off to the East, and of course if the system itself takes a nice track off the coast. We just need the storm to occur quickly, around Day 5, while the high is still in control of the pattern. NYC has -20C 2m temps on the GFS so you'd see great overrunning with awesome ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 That would be a perfectly timed scenario, with the storm possibly riding up with the HP to north maintaining the cold air mass, of course most storms need perfect timing. I didn't track PDII, but this seems starkly similar in regards to the high to the north, but it also depends whether or not that HP scoots off to the East, and of course if the system itself takes a nice track off the coast. If PDII arrived a day later its mostly rain...its the only KU event I think where the NAO was not negative though I might be wrong on that....this is the only way to really get a KU even though with a +NAO or east based -NAO since a deep system is generally going to cut inland when the NAO is positive or east based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 <br />That would be a perfectly timed scenario, with the storm possibly riding up with the HP to north maintaining the cold air mass, of course most storms need perfect timing. I didn't track PDII, but this seems starkly similar in regards to the high to the north, but it also depends whether or not that HP scoots off to the East, and of course if the system itself takes a nice track off the coast.<br /><br /><br /><br />I was just checking out NARR for that storm to refresh my memory... It does have some similarities.. I noticed that even that storm had some semblance of a 500 mb closed low in the area though.. Also had a broad 700 and 850 mb low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 heres the ggem at hr 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The GEM looks like its ready to drive another 980mb low into a 1040 high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 We just need the storm to occur quickly, around Day 5, while the high is still in control of the pattern. NYC has -20C 2m temps on the GFS so you'd see great overrunning with awesome ratios. Yea but with that kind of cold, you'd think the storm would just get sheared right out and slide south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm liking the high's positioning a lot more on the GFS/GGEM tonight. It's not sliding out to sea like previous runs had, and it's holding the cold air in much more efficiently. Hopefully the trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The GEM looks like its ready to drive another 980mb low into a 1040 high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks colder than before, but weaker also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I find it hard to believe we'd be anything but snow based off that GEM run but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I find it hard to believe we'd be anything but snow based off that GEM run but who knows. im just happy to see two things on the ggem right now. 1. it sped up the storm 2. it shifted east towards the gfs and euro ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The high is stronger, much better position, although it does slide off a bit to the East, but in a pretty good spot. This run of the GEM looks colder and of course more east than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Storm is actually south of the area at that time with just some very light QPF up to the North...its just slightly east of the Nogaps at 144.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm liking the high's positioning a lot more on the GFS/GGEM tonight. It's not sliding out to sea like previous runs had, and it's holding the cold air in much more efficiently. Hopefully the trend continues. its popping phl low mon morn with that high of 2..nyc is the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 its popping phl low mon morn with that high of 2..nyc is the same Takes KAVP to -9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 its popping phl low mon morn with that high of 2..nyc is the same It's going to be extremely cold Monday morning with 850s approaching -20C and fresh snow cover. GFS shows 2m temps of -20C approaching NYC, which is a rare sight, especially in recent years. We're finally getting a real winter that combines big snowstorms, persistent snowpack and arctic air, folks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 its popping phl low mon morn with that high of 2..nyc is the same Would Temps that cold Suppress the storm ? Any appreciable Precip into Numbers that Cold could produce Ridiculous Ratios Im Sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 heres hr 156 of the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On the GGEM scenario, it goes OTS then? Or does it come north and it's a substantial snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Does anybody recall what happened around 2-26-03? It's a top 500 mb analog on CIPS for this storm @ hr 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On the GGEM scenario, it goes OTS then? Or does it come north and it's a substantial snowstorm? Looks light-mod., but tombo can confirm. That's better at this stage than a west and wet scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks light-mod., but tombo can confirm. That's better at this stage than a west and wet scenario. that would prob be snow to rain then maybe back to snow, but his area is all snow. Qpf doesnt look that great though for up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 2-26-03 was a suppressed event that hit the MA and S NJ...I just checked and it does look very similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks light-mod., but tombo can confirm. That's better at this stage than a west and wet scenario. I'd much rather a west and wet scenario. It's getting tiresome to track storms and then miss off to the east. I don't want to end up in a drought situation because of the lack of snowfall this winter season and I would love the excitement of tracking a bonafide snowstorm for my area. I mean most of you guys have had at least 2 major snowfalls this year already and I am still awaiting my first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Does anybody recall what happened around 2-26-03? It's a top 500 mb analog on CIPS for this storm @ hr 120. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2003/us0226.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'd much rather a west and wet scenario. It's getting tiresome to track storms and then miss off to the east. I don't want to end up in a drought situation because of the lack of snowfall this winter season and I would love the excitement of tracking a bonafide snowstorm for my area. I mean most of you guys have had at least 2 major snowfalls this year already and I am still awaiting my first. well then you want the 0z ggem solution, cause the 12z one would turn u to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesis Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Does anybody recall what happened around 2-26-03? It's a top 500 mb analog on CIPS for this storm @ hr 120. http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/2003/28-Feb-03-ContinentalSurfaceWeatherMaps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12 Z GGEM did not have a storm anywhere along the east coast at that time... Perhaps you meant last nights 00z GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'd much rather a west and wet scenario. It's getting tiresome to track storms and then miss off to the east. I don't want to end up in a drought situation because of the lack of snowfall this winter season and I would love the excitement of tracking a bonafide snowstorm for my area. I mean most of you guys have had at least 2 major snowfalls this year already and I am still awaiting my first. I haven't had a major one yet. I'm just saying we wouldn't want 12z Euro solutions that warm everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.