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Threat Jan 25-28th time fram. Possible Miller A


IsentropicLift

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that is not good

Really this far out it will be very hard to tell where that high will exactly be. The models are bound to jump around a bit until we get closer to the event I just hope we can all get a decent snow out of this storm. Many times these storms give the Philly area heavy snow and in the middle sleet or fz or rain and then snow on the back end. At this point though anything is possible.

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Over 2 feet of snow for central PA/Poconos this run...I-78 to I-76 has snow to rain to snow and probably gets 10-15"...south of I-76 has a longer period of rain but still gets good snow on the front end and back end...5-10".

Sounds like decent storm for many despite initial reports. I-76 is pretty south in PA.

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well the EURO gets the low to the chesapeake and then it hits the breaks and goes out towards the BM but it warms up the coastal plain a lot before going back to snow.

Its between the ggem and the gfs.

What makes it go out to sea at that point? The High to the north?

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Surface temps, even back into Lancaster, get to around 35 for the height of the storm on this run, but prints out almost 3 inches of qpf

Actually the track isnt that different form the GFS...Pulls in warmer air and is much more wound up, but track is not that diferent. Looks like it occludes south of the area.

Anyone have an estiamte of how much of the storm is snow/mix/rain for N NJ?

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qpf for event

3-4" DC just west of Baltimore to PA /MD border then east to norther DE line goes south to southern 3rd of DE and then back to DC

2.5-3" north thru dead center VA in to PA east of Altoona, goes east to NYC, all of NJ, delmarva and eastern VA

1.75-2" WV/MD border northeast to NY/PA border on up[ to NE

I'm not doing the rest since this everybody anyway in here

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qpf for event

3-4" DC just west of Baltimore to PA /MD border then east to norther DE line goes south to southern 3rd of DE and then back to DC

2.5-3" north thru dead center VA in to PA east of Altoona, goes east to NYC, all of NJ, delmarva and eastern VA

1.75-2" WV/MD border northeast to NY/PA border on up[ to NE

I'm not doing the rest since this everybody anyway in here

If the high was 300 miles farther west, that's all snow with Blizzard of 96 totals.

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At 132, LGA is 38ºF with 850 mb right at freezing, per my AccuWx PPV raw numbers. 542 dm thickness. 1.21 inches prior 6 hours. AccuWx PPV Euro has a skew-T forecast generator, but that hasn't updated yet. If the prog was perfect, I'd guess NYC would just barely be on the wrong side of the rain snow line at this point. Some of that 1.21 inches will have fallen as snow.

I can't wait to see the forecast skew-T to get a better feel. I'd like 850 to be colder, and 38ºF is usually too warm, but when it is coming down .2 inches liquid per hour, it could be snow.

Assuming a forecast 5 and a half days out would be exact anyway.

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qpf for event

3-4" DC just west of Baltimore to PA /MD border then east to norther DE line goes south to southern 3rd of DE and then back to DC

2.5-3" north thru dead center VA in to PA east of Altoona, goes east to NYC, all of NJ, delmarva and eastern VA

1.75-2" WV/MD border northeast to NY/PA border on up[ to NE

I'm not doing the rest since this everybody anyway in here

Actually you forgot long island, which has roughly 3x the population of the entire state of Delaware. :snowman:

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