Quakertown needs snow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 let the 12z euro take over all discussion for the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well, FWIW, the euro and gfs look to be in remarkably good agreement through 36 hours, albeit a small sample size. We need someone to do the EURO PBP since Tombo was up all night tracking the snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Relax, man-- of course he's seen the guidance, because he works at NCEP and actually runs the model. I am always told to relax ..when i am clearly not worked up. His post came off as condescending as if he was talking down to a person. My answer was to come back with the 12 Z guidance thus far & simply the facts of that guidance. High pressure moving out on essentially all the guidance...however..because of the arctic air mass in place it ends up being good enough for those further inland... We will see what the ECM has to offer in a few minutes but i do not think its going to be like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The OP is a cold outlier. It's going to be hard to keep the entire column below freezing unless we get an offshore track. Disagree duggie. What will really help us stay below freezing at all levels is the strength of the Day2 low in my opinion. If it can draw more of this frigid air out over the water right in the path of our storm, it could set us up fairly well. The baroclinic zone is really so far S&E (cyclogenisis on SC/NC border) by the time this gets going, I think that's why people are mistaking this for a Miller A. Sure there is some Gulf moisture and a weak wave in the Gulf, but this is an H5 Miller B to a T. Anyway, plenty of cold air spilling into the Atlantic, strong NW flow for 3 days, SSTs below average thus reducing the ocean's ability to moderate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I am not even sure what you are talking about? Have you seen the guidance for 12 Z so far? GFS op is an outlier to its own means in the sense that its faster and its further to the east. The means are clearly more amped up ..correct? They are clearly more west..correct? The GGEM is also clearly more AMPED up then the GFS. The UKMET is also clearly more amped then the GFS. So it seems pretty clear on the 12 Z Guidance so far that we are looking at a more amped western solution and this has been the trend so far this winter season and it is supported by the pattern that we are in as well. So far the evolution of the OP GFS is all alone..... I think its safe to say the options are open. Id put more stock inthe gfs over the ggem or ukmet this year. The ensembles of both the ecm and ggem were also east of the ops last night. Lets see what the euro has to offer. One can argue the seasonal trend is for a colder further offshore track this season beginning with the Dec 19th whiff.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I am always told to relax ..when i am clearly not worked up. His post came off as condescending as if he was talking down to a person. My answer was to come back with the 12 Z guidance thus far & simply the facts of that guidance. High pressure moving out on essentially all the guidance...however..because of the arctic air mass in place it ends up being good enough for those further inland... We will see what the ECM has to offer in a few minutes but i do not think its going to be like the GFS. This is what Im waiting for too, but no one seems to be willing to do the PBP It's probably on Allan's site by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I am always told to relax ..when i am clearly not worked up. His post came off as condescending as if he was talking down to a person. My answer was to come back with the 12 Z guidance thus far & simply the facts of that guidance. High pressure moving out on essentially all the guidance...however..because of the arctic air mass in place it ends up being good enough for those further inland... We will see what the ECM has to offer in a few minutes but i do not think its going to be like the GFS. Didn't mean to be condescending...BUT you hit a pet peeve of mine. In fact, I don't necessarily even disagree with you when you say things like "the GFS seems to be an outlier". When you actually use a phrase like "the OP is wrong", I'm going to call you out every time. The storm hasn't happened, there's no verification, AND you don't even have all 12z guidance (yet). BTW, with the way this season has gone, discount the 12z op GFS solution at your own peril....I don't think there are many possibilities off the table given the lead time..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 though 72, h5 is a bit slower than the 0z.... h5 was closed off on the 0z already.... 78, starting to close off.. next frame should do it. 50/50 low is stronger as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Didn't mean to be condescending...BUT you hit a pet peeve of mine. In fact, I don't necessarily even disagree with you when you say things like "the GFS seems to be an outlier". When you actually use a phrase like "the OP is wrong", I'm going to call you out every time. The storm hasn't happened, there's no verification, AND you don't even have all 12z guidance (yet). BTW, with the way this season has gone, discount the 12z op GFS solution at your own peril....I don't think there are many possibilities off the table given the lead time..... Well put. Seasonal trends have been for the lows to ride up the thermal gradient that has set up off the coast. Even with a less than ideal -NAO, that is still the safe money until the trend is broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Midlo said heights are lower on the east coast at 72 than 00z. Good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 through 84, big diffrences. h5 is barely closed off over northern wisconsin... 0z had it over Iowa already.. less digging from northern stream as a result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 90, northern stream opens up.. southern shortwave being helf back.. 0z was already driving the h5 low into Missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Didn't mean to be condescending...BUT you hit a pet peeve of mine. In fact, I don't necessarily even disagree with you when you say things like "the GFS seems to be an outlier". When you actually use a phrase like "the OP is wrong", I'm going to call you out every time. The storm hasn't happened, there's no verification, AND you don't even have all 12z guidance (yet). BTW, with the way this season has gone, discount the 12z op GFS solution at your own peril....I don't think there are many possibilities off the table given the lead time..... Given the lack of consistency in guidance with specifics (other than storm signal and a pretty decent agreement on timing), there's no option that's unrealistic at this point among the major computer models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The euro is going to be a very amplified solution. While its different than last night, its still digging energy at the base of the trough at 96 hours and heights are rising rapidly on the east coast. Its slower than the GFS and I don't think this ends well for the big cities in the east but maybe it will change as the run plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 My Wxsim module just printed out a classic snowstorm with the 12z data for the NW Philly burbs here's the timing and rundown Snow starts at around 6am on Tuesday morning- temp 12.2 Moderate snow all day after 8am - Accumulation by 6pm 6" to 8" - temp 24.3 Heavy snow by late evening into overnight 16" on the ground at midnight - temp 25.8 Heavy snow at 3am with 20" on the ground with the temp at 25.9 Heavy snow at 6am 23" on the ground - temp at 26.2 Heavy snow at 9am 27" of snow on the ground - temp 26.7 12 noon Wednesday - snow diminishing with a total accumulation of around 30" with a temp of 27.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 96 1018 low pop over New Orleans, 1032 High centered over eastern NE vs 00z 1016 low further south east in gulf of Mex and 1040 high near Western Maine border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hour 102 has a 1012 low south of Mobile. Trough has a slight positive tilt west of the Mississippi River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 102... 1012mb low pandhandle of florida(western edge)...seems like it's gonna close off down south, not out west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 102 1012 low south of mobile, al 1032 high way east centered 50 miles east of cape cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This will probably be a good solution for I-81 west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 My Wxsim module just printed out a classic snowstorm with the 12z data for the NW Philly burbs here's the timing and rundown Snow starts at around 6am on Tuesday morning- temp 12.2 Moderate snow all day after 8am - Accumulation by 6pm 6" to 8" - temp 24.3 Heavy snow by late evening into overnight 16" on the ground at midnight - temp 25.8 Heavy snow at 3am with 20" on the ground with the temp at 25.9 Heavy snow at 6am 23" on the ground - temp at 26.2 Heavy snow at 9am 27" of snow on the ground - temp 26.7 12 noon Wednesday - snow diminishing with a total accumulation of around 30" with a temp of 27.4 getting better yet - up to 2 feet in the LV keep it coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 120, 850 line aleady north of dc... 32 line by quakertown... seems like the euro and gfs are flip flopping from the 12z runs they had yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Heavy snow on the Mason Dixon line at 120 about to change over to rain east of York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 definately not like the GFS but the issue is is the EURO holding back the energy too much which is its known bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Very heavy wet snow west of I-95 at 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ru89 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Higher elevations in the Poconos look golden!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 102 1012 low south of mobile, al 1032 high way east centered 50 miles east of cape cod that is not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 well the EURO gets the low to the chesapeake and then it hits the breaks and goes out towards the BM but it warms up the coastal plain a lot before going back to snow. Its between the ggem and the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 through 144, 120 total accum is widespreas 2" from dc-nyc... dc is 2.5" to 3", philly 2.25-2.5"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 120 hour at e-wall. is warmer that GFS but doesn't look too bad. Looks like it will close off 500 mb low over delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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