TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Individual GEFS. They are all over the place. Some fast and inland, some slow and off the coast, others in between, some with nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What website do you get it from that it goes out past 120? Barker's site only goes out to 120. Just switch the time stamp to 126 on the picture's link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Oh and remember, the GGEM has over-phased both the 1/12 and 1/21 (yes, that's today!) storms in the D4-5 range. It's like a new bias this year. This is probably where we want to see the GGEM Op. Thats actually a more typical tendency of the GGEM. The earlier storms this year where the GGEm was progressive was most likely due to the strong blocking and its handling. Perhaps now with less blocking it is back to its more usual biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Thats actually a more typical tendency of the GGEM. The earlier storms this year where the GGEm was progressive was most likely due to the strong blocking and its handling. Perhaps now with less blocking it is back to its more usual biases. good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 FYI, with respect to the GGEM, the 972 mb low is the 500 mb low. It seems that the surface maps aren't available yet. I suspect that the surface low is to the east of the 500 mb low. Whether it's on the Cape/southeast New England or just offshore remains to be seen. 972mb is a pretty high pressure for 18000 feet 500mb lows are usually notated in decameter heights. Makes me feel better about all the silly things I've said without double checking. Thanks Heard a few people mentioning that it tracks to Albany. It actually looks a bit east of there to me - in Vermont. Not a hopelessly inland solution IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 UKIE Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just switch the time stamp to 126 on the picture's link. you can make it go out to 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 so the GFS/GGEM/Euro have all in the past day run the gamut from a miss to a big snowstorm to a flooding rain event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 UKIE Anyone? slow and like the ggem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 so the GFS/GGEM/Euro have all in the past day run the gamut from a miss to a big snowstorm to a flooding rain event? which means they are all noise until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 And that is one reason why the OP GFS is not correct cause its not wound up enough! Why do we even run these models when you already know the correct solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 you can make it go out to 144 Yes I know but since it doesn't change the totals from 126-144, from what I can tell anyway, I didn't bother posting it lol. Edit: I take it back there are changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 UKIE Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 http://grib2.com/gfs...-SNOW_126HR.gif And http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_144HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Individual GEFS. They are all over the place. Some fast and inland, some slow and off the coast, others in between, some with nothing The OP is a cold outlier. It's going to be hard to keep the entire column below freezing unless we get an offshore track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 comparing the nam at 84 and the gfs at 84. Nam is stronger with the ridging over the 50/50 low which is a plus for it but slower with the energy coming out of the west which makes it a slower solution whereas the GFS is weaker with the ridging but faster with the ejection of the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM is snow to rain for NYC http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 euro has intitialized.... do my best for PBP unless tombo is here.. im working, might get a call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just dont buy the GGEM in this pattern. I beleive HPC had discounted it if not last night yesterday during the day for its timing and the way it was handling the energy ejection. just look at this past storm and how it performed with it. It showed a more amplified system run after run in the medium-long range. It always seems to be the most amplified solution in regards to coastal lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The OP is a cold outlier. It's going to be hard to keep the entire column below freezing unless we get an offshore track. well the column certainly wouldnt be below freezing with an onshore track, and its not an outlier, there are members that support it and members which are further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The OP is a cold outlier. It's going to be hard to keep the entire column below freezing unless we get an offshore track. Only 25% of those members werent below freezing. Verbatim it looks like a heavy wet snowstorm. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM is snow to rain for NYC http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html That's better than I thought. We would get heavy snow before the change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Only 25% of those members werent below freezing. Verbatim it looks like a heavy wet snowstorm. Time will tell. yes, agree, not sure where he sees that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 And http://grib2.com/gfs...-SNOW_144HR.gif Yes I see the differences now. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Why do we even run these models when you already know the correct solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM is snow to rain for NYC http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html That's actually a really big front end thump verbatim for Philly. A lot better than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yes, agree, not sure where he sees that. I know nothing is even close to being set in stone, but I see the chances of at least 50% snow pretty good. All snow is more likely than all rain IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I am not even sure what you are talking about? Have you seen the guidance for 12 Z so far? GFS op is an outlier to its own means in the sense that its faster and its further to the east. The means are clearly more amped up ..correct? They are clearly more west..correct? The GGEM is also clearly more AMPED up then the GFS. The UKMET is also clearly more amped then the GFS. So it seems pretty clear on the 12 Z Guidance so far that we are looking at a more amped western solution and this has been the trend so far this winter season and it is supported by the pattern that we are in as well. So far the evolution of the OP GFS is all alone..... Relax, man-- of course he's seen the guidance, because he works at NCEP and actually runs the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well, FWIW, the euro and gfs look to be in remarkably good agreement through 36 hours, albeit a small sample size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I am not even sure what you are talking about? Have you seen the guidance for 12 Z so far? GFS op is an outlier to its own means in the sense that its faster and its further to the east. The means are clearly more amped up ..correct? They are clearly more west..correct? The GGEM is also clearly more AMPED up then the GFS. The UKMET is also clearly more amped then the GFS. So it seems pretty clear on the 12 Z Guidance so far that we are looking at a more amped western solution and this has been the trend so far this winter season and it is supported by the pattern that we are in as well. So far the evolution of the OP GFS is all alone..... not many storms except the 12/26 have been this ampd.. so to say it's a pattern would be incorrect. If your talking a few mb here or there, i can see that. but you have to be careful when your talking about bombing the low... that hasnt been the norm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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