TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12Z Nogaps is well east and on the fast solutions now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What am i talking about? Did you watch the OP run? Then the means... One well North...(fast outlier) Other south & slower.... GFS means are very similar to last nights ECM OP...... Oh the OP is def faster, no doubt about that. We need this thing faster. Gonna need it to snow and get outta here b4 that high slides away east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What am i talking about? Did you watch the OP run? Then the means... One well North...(fast outlier) Other south & slower.... GFS means are very similar to last nights ECM OP...... There doesnt seem to be anything but snow with them Jersey coast on northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12Z Nogaps is well east and on the fast solutions now. Really? Well I think Atown should post that since its been trending eastward the last couple of runs. Let's ignore the GGEM for the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What am i talking about? Did you watch the OP run? Then the means... One well North...(fast outlier) Other south & slower.... GFS means are very similar to last nights ECM OP...... I was talking about the QPF being shown on the means is pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM - Savannah to Allentown to Albany track; heavy snow to deluge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ... FYI, with respect to the GGEM, the 972 mb low is the 500 mb low. It seems that the surface maps aren't available yet. I suspect that the surface low is to the east of the 500 mb low. Whether it's on the Cape/southeast New England or just offshore remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 FYI, with respect to the GGEM, the 972 mb low is the 500 mb low. It seems that the surface maps aren't available yet. I suspect that the surface low is to the east of the 500 mb low. Whether it's on the Cape/southeast New England or just offshore remains to be seen. Thanks, Don. Also the 12z GEFS ensembles are fine, certainly no where near as amplified as the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 There doesnt seem to be anything but snow with them Jersey coast on northward. I did not say that it was not did I? Even last nights ECM was a heavy wet snow! And yes the NOGAPS went east & unless you want to see a low track over the Appalachians you want it to start tracking east. Again applying its bias as a tool you would expect the global guidance to now become WEST of the nogaps! And that is one reason why the OP GFS is not correct cause its not wound up enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 FYI, with respect to the GGEM, the 972 mb low is the 500 mb low. It seems that the surface maps aren't available yet. I suspect that the surface low is to the east of the 500 mb low. Whether it's on the Cape/southeast New England or just offshore remains to be seen. Hey Don, nope, thats the surface low, color maps confirm. Its over upstate ny i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM is an coastal hugger/just inland bomb...snow to rain northeaster cities and inland. Low from Savannah, GA 120 hrs to Albany, NY at 144 hrs (972 mb btw) This is the type of track that gets people slammed who have been missed all year. I can remember the major snowstorms in the past that tracked inland like that. The coastal areas and big cities from DC-NYC usually get snow to rain, then dry slot, then back to snow. Regardless, it's probably going to be the most moisture rich storm any of us have experienced this winter because it's a Miller A/Gulf Coast system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Thanks, Don. Also the 12z GEFS ensembles are fine, certainly no where near as amplified as the 6z GFS. You're welcome. At this time, I believe it is too soon to have much confidence in any particular solution, though the seeming hint of a trend to the east and 0z ECMWF ensemble mean might suggest something colder than the 0z operational Euro and 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I did not say that it was not did I? Even last nights ECM was a heavy wet snow! And yes the NOGAPS went east & unless you want to see a low track over the Appalachians you want it to start tracking east. Again applying its bias as a tool you would expect the global guidance to now become WEST of the nogaps! And that is one reason why the OP GFS is not correct cause its not wound up enough! Thanks for the clarification. In your experience, how much of an eastward bias does the NOGAPS typically have? 100 miles? The eastward bias seems to be much less significant this year than past years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Anyone have the GFS indiv members from SV yet? They don't finish until after 1:00 on Allan's site... Please don't just look at where the QPF and the blue line are on the GEFS though. Remember, it's a mean, so it's taking the average of (probably) some amped cutters and some flatter colder solutions and producing that. I can't believe I'm saying this, but I agree with Atown, with that track on the GEFS it would not be snow for I-95. Maybe we can get some redemption from the indivs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This is the type of track that gets people slammed who have been missed all year. I can remember the major snowstorms in the past that tracked inland like that. The coastal areas and big cities from DC-NYC usually get snow to rain, then dry slot, then back to snow. Regardless, it's probably going to be the most moisture rich storm any of us have experienced this winter because it's a Miller A/Gulf Coast system. The GFS depicts a more miller B than miller A type storm. Albeit it redevelops way further south than has been the norm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This is the type of track that gets people slammed who have been missed all year. I can remember the major snowstorms in the past that tracked inland like that. The coastal areas and big cities from DC-NYC usually get snow to rain, then dry slot, then back to snow. Regardless, it's probably going to be the most moisture rich storm any of us have experienced this winter because it's a Miller A/Gulf Coast system. It depends on how far west it tracks. A track over Allentown would be troubling for most of the region (that's what the GGEM showed.) Regardless, with so much moisture, even a classical noreaster track over the BM would put most/all of us in a major amount of QPF. This isnt a gradient storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hey Don, nope, thats the surface low, color maps confirm. Its over upstate ny i think Thanks. The color maps weren't available when I responded. The message to which I responded only showed two of the four panels for the GGEM. The color map does seem to indicate that the lows have become vertically-stacked inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Oh and remember, the GGEM has over-phased both the 1/12 and 1/21 (yes, that's today!) storms in the D4-5 range. It's like a new bias this year. This is probably where we want to see the GGEM Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 CMC just came out on ewall. Im calling BS. Surface low goes from southern georgia to the delmarva in 6 hours and mind you does it up the spine of the apps. It would also be epic flooding for NH, Maine, and lots of other places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The GFS is a fast outlier to its means... I'll take the GFS Ensembles for $2000, Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Thanks. The color maps weren't available when I responded. The message to which I responded only showed two of the four panels for the GGEM. The color map does seem to indicate that the lows have become vertically-stacked inland. I'm gonna say the GGEM is off its rocker based on what we have seen this year. Could it be correct? absolutely, but its seems to the extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Thanks for the clarification. In your experience, how much of an eastward bias does the NOGAPS typically have? 100 miles? The eastward bias seems to be much less significant this year than past years. I have never calculated the miles in distance with its bias..its just an observation of how this model works & it is something that I have learned from reading Typhoon Tips posts for the past several years... As for what I personally think..a low from the gulf of mexico that tracks west of Hatteras (not well inland) and then NNE from there and over SNJ and under LI ......so about 50 miles or less to a track over the eastern Edge of the Jersey coastline.... Same thoughts I have had for 30 + hours now. Last night at 00z the NOGAPS had this going thru C PA....so you definitely wanted to see it come east. Now the coastal hugger is much more viable then OTS or anything like that..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'll take the GFS Ensembles for $2000, Alex. Theyre yours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allman15 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 NE.PHILLY......2.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Really? Well I think Atown should post that since its been trending eastward the last couple of runs. Let's ignore the GGEM for the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just gorgeous. http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_126HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The exact track is not etched in stone, The models have been all over the place this year. It looks like speed is the key this time, as a slower storm is a hugger or inland. I would like to see some model consistency before I lose sleep over this storm. That being said this has the potential for being a widespread event for everyone, stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 http://grib2.com/gfs...-SNOW_126HR.gif What website do you get it from that it goes out past 120? Barker's site only goes out to 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 http://grib2.com/gfs...-SNOW_126HR.gif It's extreme, but it's what we call "puking snow," and I like it. More sleepless nights ahead, eh boys and girls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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