Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This would be a 36-48 hour event as per the Euro. With total qpf in the 1.5 range area-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Obviously this run is not showing it but is there any scenario that this thing comes together and brings a Major Snowstorm to the Area.. Last couple days people were hinting at a Miller A ect.. and hearing this after Fri's storm has been toned down is a little bit of a ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 http://www.weatherof...ime=12&Type=pnm GEM ensembles at 120 hours indicate more than half have the big high over the NE....nothing like the OP run...GEM 0 and GEM 8 are what you want to see happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This would be a 36-48 hour event as per the Euro. With total qpf in the 1.5 range area-wide. LOL well that would make this winter perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 LOL well that would make this winter perfect. He forgot to mention that it's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 If the 12z euro verified, it sounds like everyone from NYC on NE should start stacking sand bags Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The problem is again the models want to go towards a monster storm as opposed to a SW flow event...a SW flow event with that high can drop major front end snows, but by slowing and phasing and blahhh blahhhh blahhhhhhhhhhh taking its sweet old time to fire the high has too much time to move out. I'd take the monster storm over some ho hum SW flow event. The monster storm would be historic, regardless of mixing or changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 He forgot to mention that it's rain. Yeah I found that out by going back to the previous page lol. Still, a December 1992 repeat would be historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Most, but not all of it. He forgot to mention that it's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It actually changes everyone over to light snow as it heads east and bombs to a 972mb eventually in the Gulf of Maine at 186 hrs. That's actually what happened on the third day of the December 1992 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 how does that disturbance in the south manage to seemingly "wait" for the northern stream for 24 hours to come and phase with it...no way this happens. I agree. Given the fast flow, I suspect this "wait" is a red flag. More likely, at least in my view, is that everything keeps moving and something along the lines of last night's ECMWF ensemble mean/operational Euro is more likely than the solution shown at 12z. That the GFS ensembles are in reasonable agreement with last night's ECMWF ensemble mean leads me to conclude that the 12z Euro might be an outlier. Of course, I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 http://www.weatherof...ime=12&Type=pnm GEM ensembles at 120 hours indicate more than half have the big high over the NE....nothing like the OP run...GEM 0 and GEM 8 are what you want to see happen. Yeah, that is pretty good to see from this model. Plus, so much has shifted east this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Even worse, the 168 hour surface low reflection is horrid as well given 500...I'd guess the surface low would be over ORF and not over PHL as shown...still rain in that setup verbatim but still another suspicious piece of evidence coming from this Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 with this setup doesn't it look like the low should be somewhere near GA/SC at this time frame...in other words closer to all that energy at the base of the trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 with this setup doesn't it look like the low should be somewhere near GA/SC at this time frame...in other words closer to all that energy at the base of the trough? I'm glad someone else noticed it too!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z Fim has a coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm glad someone else noticed it too!!! agree as well.. the placement does seem a bit suspicious to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm glad someone else noticed it too!!! I'm a tad suprised not too many people are commenting on that. If you put the low further south it has much more time to bomb out before it gets to our area and with the trough going negative and all that energy bottled up in the base we end up with one major system. Even if it didn't turn out to be all snow it would be remembered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 http://www.weatherof...ime=12&Type=pnm GEM ensembles at 120 hours indicate more than half have the big high over the NE....nothing like the OP run...GEM 0 and GEM 8 are what you want to see happen. A lot of them show a coastal storm. Impressive signal this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12 Z NOGAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12 Z NOGAPS that's actually more of where I would have expected the Euro's surface low to be as well.. even the next time frame on the euro, it seems too far west.. a bit later on, it does seem to end up in the right spot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12 Z NOGAPS that is a good location (or better location as compared to the EC) for the hP in SE Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 that's actually more of where I would have expected the Euro's surface low to be as well.. even the next time frame on the euro, it seems too far west.. a bit later on, it does seem to end up in the right spot... Though the ECM is alot slower you actually do have an area of low pressure off the coast.. The western extension just spreads inland indicating a broad surface low .... NOGAPS 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks Like FIM, Nogaps, and some of the GEM Ensembles show a better scenario than Euro..Still plenty of time with this one to work out the details.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 JMA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Keep in mind this was last nights ECM And this was its means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 JMA.... Now that looks like a MECSY setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Though the ECM is alot slower you actually do have an area of low pressure off the coast.. The western extension just spreads inland indicating a broad surface low .... NOGAPS 150 yes, it is a broad area.. and the other thing is that the low jumps due east from hour 174 to 180, which would lead me to believe that the center of the low is more likely on the eastern side of the envelope when it is still a broad center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Another thing... Chances are that the ECM is more to the west the way it is due to it holding the system further south in the GOM too long... Here is the UK Note its not as far south as the ECM.... The ECM takes almost 24 hrs to move from the west side of Lousianna to the Eastern Side of that state... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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