uofmiami Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If the PAC recons are indeed out there, it's possible. Or it's just another solution ala GFS. They are out there and in the 12Z GFS: Fri Jan 21 14:52:16 2011 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 211451ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD1350Z FRI JAN 21 201112Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS ON TIME..15 DROPSONDES IN THE WRN PACIFIC WERE AVAILABLE FOR 12Z GFS INGESTIN SUPPORT OF WSR..$$SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 the solution is very viable IMO. let the mets or knowledgable weenies discuss it but we have to realize the off shore Low, which is becoming better sampled, that moves into the Canadian maritines is KEY imo. its what strengthens up there and forms into a brief 50/50 that keeps the H from moving out. this is why an inland track, which was shown for a few runs, now CANT happen. Well HPC said as much (take that FWIW) that the further east scenario being painted by the ensembles was "plausible." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 a long way to go. Spag. plots from GEFS have everything except the kitchen sink and a lot of strong members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS ensembles are a good bit further west than the OP....the mean takes the low from off Cape May, NJ to over CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The GFS is a fast outlier to its means... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Assuming this storm comes to fruition as the GFS depicts, what type of START time are we talking about w/ respect to the precip.. Thanks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Any good analogs on this storm? Pd2 still looks the closest, but i think there was more over-running wit that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 A mid ground between last night's 6z and today's 12z may be best. I just can't see it being as far offshore as the 12z has it @ 114 with the nao the way it is. That's probably very reasonable. The NAO is slightly negative (or will be next week) but east based. How much of a difference is there in mileage between the two runs? It seems this 12z GFS run matches up with yesterday's 12z EURO run if that means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 anyone have a 132hr gem image yet? 120 to 144 look wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well that sure was fun. Based upon what Wes Junker once said, I've tried to monitor on a daily basis the CPC's 6-10 and 8-14 day analogues. Although several models sure want to bomb the EC with rain or snow, I haven't seen the analogues pop up any KU dates. Am I merely being obsessive or does this send up a warning flag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS ensembles are a good bit further west than the OP....the mean takes the low from off Cape May, NJ to over CC So the OP switched from being the western outlier to the eastern outlier? lol Still anything is better than the 6z GFS and we could still stay all snow with a compromised track. The 12z GEFS ensemble means are still good for all snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 we can call the gfs a fast outlier but the euro had this timing yesterday and the srefs and NAM are off to the races so its possible. We have a strong nothern flow and a lot of energy coming over the ridge behind this storm. Faster makes sense to this weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 FWIW, the gfs ensembles are coming in pretty amped. The mean should be ok but there is probably some very warm solutions in there. Yeah, the OP run is very cold. Obviously high alert this heads up along the coast or slightly inland. Beautiful moisture feed and very well developed mid-levels. Big snow potential. I wonder if this could finally be the big one for CPa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The GFS is a fast outlier to its means... Um, that's a pretty sweet mean. What are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM is an coastal hugger/just inland bomb...snow to rain northeaster cities and inland. Low from Savannah, GA 120 hrs to Albany, NY at 144 hrs (972 mb btw) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The GFS is a fast outlier to its means... The GFS ensemble mean seems to keep it cold enough for all snow. Very good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Um, that's a pretty sweet mean. What are you talking about? He wants us to have rain for some reason. but the ensemble means seem to be all snow, just like they were this morning and all day yesterday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM continues to dig the H5 all the way down to the deep south and is slower than the GFS not surprising. Interesting to see what HPC says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just ran the Wxsim module with the 6z and it just shows the following run of the mill type storm for the NW Philly burbs Snow arriving Tuesday afternoon...Heavy Snow overnight with 10 to 12" of snow accumulating then transitioning to ZR/IP and finally all ZR and very heavy with 1.78" of liquid falling with temps below freezing. Finally to all rain to top it off with 0.34" falling with temps above freezing The Wxsim indicates when the rain ends there will still be around 13" of snow and ice on the ground......yawn www.chescowx.com Paul - think of the destruction that would occur with 1.78 zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just dont buy the GGEM in this pattern. I beleive HPC had discounted it if not last night yesterday during the day for its timing and the way it was handling the energy ejection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Normally yes. This feels different tho. I would still be worried if I lived near the coast. Inland will probably fare better on this storm. I worry more about rain, especially 95 east. There hasn't been a consistent trend one way or the other -- lots of waffling on the models about ptype since the low is close to the coast. I remember we said this before 12/26 also... granted it was the EURO back then. The Euro was also very consistent run after run for several days, wasn't it? At least the storm signal is consistent -- there will be something in all likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM is an coastal hugger/just inland bomb...snow to rain northeaster cities and inland. Wild. All solutions are still on the table, of course. Which models ingested the new data? I know the GFS did and the Euro will-- what about the others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM has a very high amplitude trof with a major vortmax down in the gulf states at 120hr. That would delay things for us and move most of the cold out of the coastal plain. But definitely a high QPF storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 im hearing the ggem is ots, and everyone is saying its inland? which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Um, that's a pretty sweet mean. What are you talking about? What am i talking about? Did you watch the OP run? Then the means... One well North...(fast outlier) Other south & slower.... GFS means are very similar to last nights ECM OP...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 He wants us to have rain for some reason. but the ensemble means seem to be all snow, just like they were this morning and all day yesterday lol. I'm waitin for his nogaps update. Not even bein a douche, just curious if its still tracking west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Inland will probably fare better on this storm. I worry more about rain, especially 95 east. There hasn't been a consistent trend one way or the other -- lots of waffling on the models about ptype since the low is close to the coast. The Euro was also very consistent run after run for several days, wasn't it? At least the storm signal is consistent -- there will be something in all likelihood. That storm was so weird to model-- the euro had it for like two runs and then lost it and the gfs brought it back when it had its "initialization errors" lol-- in the 3-5 day period I believe all the models lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM is an coastal hugger/just inland bomb...snow to rain northeaster cities and inland. Low from Savannah, GA 120 hrs to Albany, NY at 144 hrs (972 mb btw) do we have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 im hearing the ggem is ots, and everyone is saying its inland? which is it? Inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 im hearing the ggem is ots, and everyone is saying its inland? which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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