Spanks45 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ILG qpf is 2.10", looks to be all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Can an expert comment on whether this solution is even viable... I think many of us amateurs are in shock a bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Sweet mother of god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Never want to be in the jackpot 5 days out on the GFS. I'll enjoy it while it shows it... Normally yes. This feels different tho. I would still be worried if I lived near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 seasonal trends are so important here. So far we have seen strong 50/50 lows that, unlike last year, move up into a favorable position for the NYC area. Additionally, the HP's have been strong, cold, and slow to move out, but not overly cold and dry ala 12/19. Also, we have seen the storms take basically the same track over and over in response to the beautiful thermal gradient off the coast. Excelent post. Again the GFS at 4-5 days out is still like throwing a dart but seasonal trends are very important here and the downstream development is very key and is what we should watch as thedays roll forward. Hopefully we can get to Monday with similar solutions on all the models with slight insignificant (i.e. still giving snow to everyone not rain) wobbles all across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Never want to be in the jackpot 5 days out on the GFS. I'll enjoy it while it shows it... Normally I would agree with you on this statement, however, these powerhouse type storms almost always provide us with a strong signal many days in advance like this. So I'm thinking this is a good thing. Think Snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 the solution is very viable IMO. let the mets or knowledgable weenies discuss it but we have to realize the off shore Low, which is becoming better sampled, that moves into the Canadian maritines is KEY imo. its what strengthens up there and forms into a brief 50/50 that keeps the H from moving out. this is why an inland track, which was shown for a few runs, now CANT happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 According to the GFS, no warmup afterwards, so if we do get some big snows, they will stick around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Can an expert comment on whether this solution is even viable... I think many of us amateurs are in shock a bit! One positive. GFS and Euro both have major snow storm even though the storm evolution is a little different. Last nights Euro dug the northern stream much further SW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 According to the GFS, no warmup afterwards, so if we do get some big snows, they will stick around. What's the longest stretch of snow cover for the NYC area.. This is bordering on unbelievable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What's the longest stretch of snow cover for the NYC area.. This is bordering on unbelievable! 1993 I believe is up there snow begets snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It all comes down to the how the northern stream interacts, and the timing of everything, but the 12z GFS is really eye watering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Did any of the components responsible for this incredible depiction come on land or in better obs range for the 12z? Or is this just a case of a perfectly phased (albeit unlikely) operational run. It seems that many of the models began a gradual shift east since 0z last night, just wondering what might be the reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Never want to be in the jackpot 5 days out on the GFS. I'll enjoy it while it shows it... I remember we said this before 12/26 also... granted it was the EURO back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Did any of the components responsible for this incredible depiction come on land or in better obs range for the 12z? Or is this just a case of a perfectly phased (albeit unlikely) operational run. It seems that many of the models began a gradual shift east since 0z last night, just wondering what might be the reason. Rumor has it they have been doing aircraft drops over the PAC. The GFS works this time because its fast. Its not digging the H5 to the GOM and not taking three days to come up ala the UKMET which is still showing an inland bomb today at 12z and is over a day slower than the GFS. I posted earlier today that the srefs and NAM both appear to be on the fast track which is what will make (or break if they are wrong) this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Lock this up now. This is the euro from yesterday but stronger and colder. The storm off the south coast tomorrow goes up into the atlantci and forms a beautiful 50/50 which works with the NAO to help trap in the HP. First time I can remember an east based NAO helping out, LOL. What a run. This year everything seems to be working. The NAO could be negative in the southern hemisphere (in which case it would be the SAO) and it would still work in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Apparently- the GFS at 288- has +++++++++++PNA and ---NAO... THe 584 line goes all the way up to the NW terretories/Eastern Alaska.. Insane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Any mets want to chime in on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12z GFS..wow!!..very different solution than Euro..another MIller B..but it stalls It also helps that this is the 12z GFS and not some other run. New information uptake. Now, if the EURO swings over to this depiction..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 if the EURO swings over to this depiction..... If that happens I'm gonna need to hire Jebman as a snow removal contractor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Rumor has it they have been doing aircraft drops over the PAC. The GFS works this time because its fast. Its not digging the H5 to the GOM and not taking three days to come up ala the UKMET which is still showing an inland bomb today at 12z and is over a day slower than the GFS. I posted earlier today that the srefs and NAM both appear to be on the fast track which is what will make (or break if they are wrong) this storm. Thanks for the explanation and forgive me if this sounds simplistic, but do you think the models had a hard time resolving what to do with the energy in the SW because the low still hadn't formed off the EC from the storm that just passed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE A MAJOR STORM COMING UP THE COAST AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK...The form and or track is still in question but there is some serious potential with this one.. Quoted from a Respected pro Met from another site.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Any mets want to chime in on the GFS? seems a little too fast. It's also in it's usual bias mode wrt speed of short waves and pushing things off the east coast too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 seems a little too fast. It's also in it's usual bias mode wrt speed of short waves and pushing things off the east coast too far south. But it was way slow last night I think and the speed does seem to play better vs its enembles and the euro ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 seems a little too fast. It's also in it's usual bias mode wrt speed of short waves and pushing things off the east coast too far south. I wonder if the new information ingested had something to do with this. Also, if the euro swings around to this depiction. If so, you can say its a case of the OP coming more into line with its ensembles as this was what the ensembles were indicating the last couple of days. Cant wait for the GEFS to come out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The difference here is the difference at H5 during the 12Z's 96-102 hour time frame. Watch as it evolves through the beginning of overrunning and beyond. 6Z: 12Z: The main H5 low rounds the base of the trough around N NC and prepares to exit off the Jersey coastline with the 12Z depiction rather than the intense digging shown at 6Z which has the vort rounding the base around Atlanta. It's like we all said before--you DON'T want a bomb with this upper air setup. You want a less robust system that cuts off and takes off on it's own, therefore the stalling action for New England. Just make sure that if this solution is the one you want that the vort coming behind stays weaker and doesn't kick it out. THAT'S how this solution happens. The 12Z moves the vort, closed, across the Midwest and doesn't allow it to dig as much as the 6Z's open, more digging, and in the end, more amplified depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 FWIW, the gfs ensembles are coming in pretty amped. The mean should be ok but there is probably some very warm solutions in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 But it was way slow last night I think and the speed does seem to play better vs its enembles and the euro ensembles A mid ground between last night's 6z and today's 12z may be best. I just can't see it being as far offshore as the 12z has it @ 114 with the nao the way it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I wonder if the new information ingested had something to do with this. Also, if the euro swings around to this depiction. If so, you can say its a case of the OP coming more into line with its ensembles as this was what the ensembles were indicating the last couple of days. Cant wait for the GEFS to come out! If the PAC recons are indeed out there, it's possible. Or it's just another solution ala GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 A mid ground between last night's 6z and today's 12z may be best. I just can't see it being as far offshore as the 12z has it @ 114 with the nao the way it is. well, I don't think the NAO is as bad as it could be. The 50/50 is def. pulling in ridging from the 570 heights east of greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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