CIK_62 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 True, its not going to happen that extreme, but its indicative of the tremendous blocking we have to look forward to next month. Dewpoints higher than air temperature eh? Supersaturation! [/quote ]http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=kNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Although well beyond their useful range, the 9Z srefs are clearly on the faster edge of the solutions which is a good thing with the HP still anchored over the east and a new one over the midwest. What I like about them is that most of the 500 lows are further north and not digging to the oil rigs in the GOM. Faster is good as HPC notes above. Also appears the NAM is on the faster edge of solutions and note the nice 50/50 on the NAM keeping the HP anchored in. There appears to be some positive feedback between the 50/50 and the -NAO trying to squeeze in, it could be enough. These are just thoughts, not saying its correct by any stretch, but something to put in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Can someone give me an estimation when this storm is most likely to occur? I have a overseas flight scheduled Wednesday afternoon and I'm thinking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yo freaks... 12z gfs running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I am heading to Ft Lauderdale late Wed AM....certainly looks like there could be some problems from late tuesday thru Wednesday here in the NE corridor. Would imagine later Wed will be better Can someone give me an estimation when this storm is most likely to occur? I have a overseas flight scheduled Wednesday afternoon and I'm thinking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just ran the Wxsim module with the 6z and it just shows the following run of the mill type storm for the NW Philly burbs Snow arriving Tuesday afternoon...Heavy Snow overnight with 10 to 12" of snow accumulating then transitioning to ZR/IP and finally all ZR and very heavy with 1.78" of liquid falling with temps below freezing. Finally to all rain to top it off with 0.34" falling with temps above freezing The Wxsim indicates when the rain ends there will still be around 13" of snow and ice on the ground......yawn www.chescowx.com Yeah, that is pretty lame... Seriously, that would really shut things down around here with 1/2" of ice on top of a foot of snow. Definitely make sure the generator is up to snuff for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just ran the Wxsim module with the 6z and it just shows the following run of the mill type storm for the NW Philly burbs Snow arriving Tuesday afternoon...Heavy Snow overnight with 10 to 12" of snow accumulating then transitioning to ZR/IP and finally all ZR and very heavy with 1.78" of liquid falling with temps below freezing. Finally to all rain to top it off with 0.34" falling with temps above freezing The Wxsim indicates when the rain ends there will still be around 13" of snow and ice on the ground......yawn www.chescowx.com With this forecast Wow 1.5 to 2 feet of snow for the LV. Bring it on. What a banner year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Someone distract me with fantasy storms with 2 feet of snow. My wife is about to give birth What better way to be born? As the sun shines on the heels of a fresh snowfall. Virtually every kid around here woke up today and smiled when they looked out their window; your child gets to come into this world on one of those days.....you're a lucky man. Best wishes to you and your family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 06 GFS goes from <1" at phl airport to roughly a foot in far NW Chesco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The 12z GFS: what exactly is happening here? The high is more in place, but looks like a Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Gfs looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks more east and coldert than 0z through 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS is absolutely timing this perfectly, knock on wood. Can't wait to see the CIPS today. Wow, the next few days are going to be gut wrenchers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12 z GFS has some significant changes. Northern stream is further east - should be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 All snow through hr. 108 for the whole region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 SECS/MECS from NYC-DC at 114. Everything is in a perfect position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 114 Definitely east and a good hit. But was this a Miller B, Snow88? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Big snow for phl at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12z gfs looks better. i think the off shore storm that goes to NewFound sets up or acts like a bit of a 5050 which KINDA keeps the H from shooting E. so the GFS forms the L right off CAR coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Definitely east and a good hit. But was this a Miller B, Snow88? It sure looks like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I would expect more overrunning snows for this particular run, otherwise looks great with the high pressure placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Lock this up now. This is the euro from yesterday but stronger and colder. The storm off the south coast tomorrow goes up into the atlantci and forms a beautiful 50/50 which works with the NAO to help trap in the HP. First time I can remember an east based NAO helping out, LOL. What a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Seriously, is this really happening?? What happened the the idea that this was a very long duration, not very strong low... I know that's what the Euro depicted 24 hours ago, but where are we at.. I see that the GFS is depicting a very nice storm, but it doesn't appear to be the "same type" of storm as what the EURO depicted.. Any explanation, would be great! jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Beautiful at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Im in absolute tears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This is easily a warning criteria snow for everybody if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If you took the 12z Euro yesterday with the 12z GFS today, its uncanny how alike they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Are we going to need a MOTHER OF GOD picture soon?? I think it's best left to Earthlight.. )) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks like Philadelphia could be the bullseye on this run, should be plenty cold as well for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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