am19psu Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The analogs are kinda meh for this threat, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The analogs are kinda meh for this threat, though. What are the analogs for it AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What are the analogs for it AM? I don't have an extensive database or anything, but none of these showed up in the NESIS database ' And the CIPS analogs aren't showing a strong signal either. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=120&flg=new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 2-11-96.... was that our big storm in Feb that year? I noticed Jan 02 in the list-- Im wondering if that was the Big Carolina Crusher. Awful winter up here, but they did have a big storm down there which missed us to the south-- reminiscent of the winter of 1972-73 in that respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 those are day 8 analogues from yesterday correct, so aren't those past our storm period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The problem with those CIPS analogs is they break the nation into quadrants which I feel makes the data less reliable...I checked the middle quadrant at 120 hours covering the Oh Valley/Gulf Coast and got this...the signal is way stronger for something on this one... http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=120&flg=new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Verbatim, KAVP is 1.7" QPF all snow...but you know what happens to those in the GFS bullseye this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 those are day 8 analogues from yesterday correct, so aren't those past our storm period? Yeah, but they should still show hints of day-after snowstorms. The problem with those CIPS analogs is they break the nation into quadrants which I feel makes the data less reliable...I checked the middle quadrant at 120 hours covering the Oh Valley/Gulf Coast and got this...the signal is way stronger for something on this one... http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=120&flg=new Nice catch. Like I said, I'm bullish on this threat. I just wasn't that excited about the analogs, but I'm not an analog forecaster, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Someone distract me with fantasy storms with 2 feet of snow. My wife is about to give birth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro ensembles are perfect..1004mb low tracks East of OC, MD to inside the Benchmark...it's like 996 at that point. Cold enough for snow for everybody and a good amount of QPF (at least for this range). How much QPF were we looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Someone distract me with fantasy storms with 2 feet of snow. My wife is about to give birth Best of luck. Here, read about the 1996 blizzard for further distraction. http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 820 am HPC prelim update... THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THE MEAN MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE WEST AND THE MEAN TROUGH PERSISTING IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL US. AN INITIAL WAVE AMPLIFYING IN THE EAST LEADS TO A CONSENSUS CYCLONE DEVELOPING AND MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST TUE 25 JAN TO THU 27 JAN/DAYS 4-6/. A CONSENSUS APPROACH AMONG THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS USED TO MITIGATE DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE SUITE OF SOLUTIONS. EAST... THE UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE A LOW ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH REDEVELOPS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND INTENSIFIES QUICKLY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE COAST AND HEAVY SNOW FURTHER INLAND. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCES ARE FROM THE TIMING OF THE CYCLONE PROGRESSION UP THE COAST. THE SLOWEST UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE DUE TO ITS HIGHER AMPLITUDE STARTING WHEN THE 500 MB WAVE CROSSES CO 12Z MON INTO THE TX PANHANDLE 12Z TUE. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE A LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVE AND THUS FASTER TIMING. THE 00-06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF HAVE A 500 MB WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUE NIGHT AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY WED/OH VALLEY THU. THIS WAVE SHOULD ACT AS A 'KICKER' TO EJECT THE CLOSED LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. CONSEQUENTLY...THE FASTER TREND IN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE VIEWED AS PLAUSIBLE SOLUTIONS. TO MITIGATE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 06Z GFS WAS USED. THE MINORITY OF THE 00-06Z GEFS MEMBERS HAVE THE CYCLONE NEAR THE COAST...SO IT IS THE LAST SET OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE TO SHOW A CHANCE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW SOLUTION. WITH THE ENTIRE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUITE SHOWING A LOW CLOSE TO THE COAST(UKMET INLAND)...AND THE MEAN 500 MB TROUGH FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL US...THE GEFS MEAN WAS ASSIGNED A LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING. CONFIDENCE IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO CONTINUING SHIFTS IN THE SUITE OF SOLUTIONS. BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE LOW DEVELOPING IS OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES IN TROUGH PHASING/TIMING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The problem with those CIPS analogs is they break the nation into quadrants which I feel makes the data less reliable...I checked the middle quadrant at 120 hours covering the Oh Valley/Gulf Coast and got this...the signal is way stronger for something on this one... http://www.eas.slu.e...fhr=120&flg=new lol so many of those analogs are from the late 80s and early 90s-- although it's nice to see Jan 1987 on the list. SG, do you think that storm would have been better forecast if it happened today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 820 am HPC prelim update... THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THE MEAN MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE WEST AND THE MEAN TROUGH PERSISTING IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL US. AN INITIAL WAVE AMPLIFYING IN THE EAST LEADS TO A CONSENSUS CYCLONE DEVELOPING AND MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST TUE 25 JAN TO THU 27 JAN/DAYS 4-6/. A CONSENSUS APPROACH AMONG THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS USED TO MITIGATE DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE SUITE OF SOLUTIONS. EAST... THE UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE A LOW ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH REDEVELOPS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND INTENSIFIES QUICKLY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE COAST AND HEAVY SNOW FURTHER INLAND. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCES ARE FROM THE TIMING OF THE CYCLONE PROGRESSION UP THE COAST. THE SLOWEST UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE DUE TO ITS HIGHER AMPLITUDE STARTING WHEN THE 500 MB WAVE CROSSES CO 12Z MON INTO THE TX PANHANDLE 12Z TUE. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE A LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVE AND THUS FASTER TIMING. THE 00-06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF HAVE A 500 MB WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUE NIGHT AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY WED/OH VALLEY THU. THIS WAVE SHOULD ACT AS A 'KICKER' TO EJECT THE CLOSED LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. CONSEQUENTLY...THE FASTER TREND IN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE VIEWED AS PLAUSIBLE SOLUTIONS. TO MITIGATE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 06Z GFS WAS USED. THE MINORITY OF THE 00-06Z GEFS MEMBERS HAVE THE CYCLONE NEAR THE COAST...SO IT IS THE LAST SET OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE TO SHOW A CHANCE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW SOLUTION. WITH THE ENTIRE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUITE SHOWING A LOW CLOSE TO THE COAST(UKMET INLAND)...AND THE MEAN 500 MB TROUGH FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL US...THE GEFS MEAN WAS ASSIGNED A LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING. CONFIDENCE IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO CONTINUING SHIFTS IN THE SUITE OF SOLUTIONS. BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE LOW DEVELOPING IS OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES IN TROUGH PHASING/TIMING. You should read further down also. Not all bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 You should read further down also. Not all bad news. so are we looking at rain on the island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Sounds like theyre giving more credence to the EURO ENSEMBLES than the GFS ENSEMBLES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 so are we looking at rain on the island? Sounds like it, but note they also viewed the faster solution of the ensembles as "plausible" which would be more snow for us if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hey, I am further inland or at least on the border. But this far out, there are so many options. But I think there is a good bet there will be a big storm. You should read further down also. Not all bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hey, I am further inland or at least on the border. But this far out, there are so many options. But I think there is a good bet there will be a big storm. I agree-- and did you see this list of analogs, its all across the board lol. But the highest level analogs do seem to show a bigger inland hit / coastal rain-- just look at the years and you'll see why most of us hated the late 80s and early 90s. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=120&flg=new Our best storms on this list would be #3, #7, #11 (PD2-- of course), #12, #13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Someone distract me with fantasy storms with 2 feet of snow. My wife is about to give birth Congrats! Double blessing that this didn't happen early next week during the (hopefully) snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM ensembles are way south and east of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 All hope isnt lost even if this ends up being a rainstorm, yea its fantasy range, but the GFS is showing temps of -20 at JFK at hour 372.... of course it wont verify, but its a sign of the big AO/NAO plunge coming in early February. Likely going back to the same pattern we had in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This would have to be pretty wrapped up to be rain, making the storm impressive either way. We're seeing the typical biases of the ensembles attm. I'd like to see the euro match up with it's ensembles at 12z. However, I must admit that the nogaps being so far northwest scares me. We'll see...still lots of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This would have to be pretty wrapped up to be rain, making the storm impressive either way. We're seeing the typical biases of the ensembles attm. I'd like to see the euro match up with it's ensembles at 12z. However, I must admit that the nogaps being so far northwest scares me. We'll see...still lots of time. 6z Nogaps shifted east. It now has a coastal hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I know it's the 6Z GFS, and I know this would break all of our hearts if it ever verified, but the Meteostar data at hour 126 shows 0.95" of QPF in 3 hours, all rain, with an 85+ knot H85 wind at KPHL. Verbatim, it's a 30+ hour storm with 2.40" of QPF at PHL. It also has the time during the storm as the only time above freezing during the 16-day forecast period, including a daytime temperature on 2/5 of -2F, and a 2/6 low of -4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just ran the Wxsim module with the 6z and it just shows the following run of the mill type storm for the NW Philly burbs Snow arriving Tuesday afternoon...Heavy Snow overnight with 10 to 12" of snow accumulating then transitioning to ZR/IP and finally all ZR and very heavy with 1.78" of liquid falling with temps below freezing. Finally to all rain to top it off with 0.34" falling with temps above freezing The Wxsim indicates when the rain ends there will still be around 13" of snow and ice on the ground......yawn www.chescowx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK_62 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 All hope isnt lost even if this ends up being a rainstorm, yea its fantasy range, but the GFS is showing temps of -20 at JFK at hour 372.... of course it wont verify, but its a sign of the big AO/NAO plunge coming in early February. Likely going back to the same pattern we had in December. The IPS 06z GFS output is impossible cause it shows dewpoints higher than the air temperature! Also only -6F at 850mb while -21F at surface. 850mb would have to be -35C. Ridiculous for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I know it's the 6Z GFS, and I know this would break all of our hearts if it ever verified, but the Meteostar data at hour 126 shows 0.95" of QPF in 3 hours, all rain, with an 85+ knot H85 wind at KPHL. Verbatim, it's a 30+ hour storm with 2.40" of QPF at PHL. It also has the time during the storm as the only time above freezing during the 16-day forecast period, including a daytime temperature on 2/5 of -2F, and a 2/6 low of -4. Yeah but people are forgetting Don S very snowy and cold forecast for February lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The IPS 06z GFS output is impossible cause it shows dewpoints higher than the air temperature! Also only -6F at 850mb while -21F at surface. 850mb would have to be -35C. Ridiculous for NYC. True, its not going to happen that extreme, but its indicative of the tremendous blocking we have to look forward to next month. Dewpoints higher than air temperature eh? Supersaturation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looking at BUFKiT 06 GFS is 95% rain at Wilmington but roughly 2/3 snow at Reading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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