A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yea, I didnt get the "ragingly" positive NAO idea either-- the NAO is progged to be negative next week, and even if its weakly negative, the ragingly positive PNA should help us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The NAO block will be over Iceland/Norwegian Sea, which isn't as favorable as Greenland/Davis Straits. Personally, I'm pretty bullish on this threat. I was talking late last week/early this week about how the MJO/GWO was lining up for the threat today, but the guidance was too progressive with the MJO. It's still in P7 currently, which is ok, but not perfect. It'll be in P8 next week. Looking at the individual ensemble members, you can see how the GFS/ECM ops are both way west of the best clustering. Still lots of details to work out, including the normal BL nonsense when we're missing a good west block, but things are looking pretty good as I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The NAO is not positive for this storm...you can see on CPC it is weakly negative: You can see the east-based block here with all the strong south winds at H5 east of Greenland: well I should have been more specific, and raging positive was a poor choice of words..Im just in a rush to post cause I'm at work/. It is weakly negative by the cpc number, but eastbased at that, and it will not hold in our confluence zone/high pressure in se Canada. I really cant post now becauyse I'm at work, but I'll come back to this later today guys. It will be an interesting storm at the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Usually when a high escapes toward the Can. Maritimes, the end result is a change to rain for LI/NYC. However, when the low bombs and tracks far enough off the coast, that tends to maintain ageostrophic NE winds and hold the cold air in. The Lindsay Storm in Feb 1969 is one such example, and Jan 22-23 1987 is another. I'm not talking about any specific model here, just the general setup. ?? I'm not following you guys. If the high escapes, and the low is that strong, a screaming east wind at the surface will change us to rain in a heartbeat. The high drifitng offshore alone means we dont have a -NAO/ 50/50 in place, hence this is not a HECS setup for NYC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 well I should have been more specific, and raging positive was a poor choice of words..Im just in a rush to post cause I'm at work/. It is weakly negative by the cpc number, but eastbased at that, and it will not hold in our confluence zone/high pressure in se Canada. I really cant post now becauyse I'm at work, but I'll come back to this later today guys. It will be an interesting storm at the least Generally an east based -NAO is as good as a +NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Generally an east based -NAO is as good as a +NAO Exactly what I was implying. It is not out of the realm to get all snow with a high escaping, it's just a much more delicate situation that I'm not confident about working for us 5-6 days out. jconsor does bring up an interesting point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Usually when a high escapes toward the Can. Maritimes, the end result is a change to rain for LI/NYC. However, when the low bombs and tracks far enough off the coast, that tends to maintain ageostrophic NE winds and hold the cold air in. The Lindsay Storm in Feb 1969 is one such example, and Jan 22-23 1987 is another. I'm not talking about any specific model here, just the general setup. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1987/us0122.php You can see what happened there is that while the high was way off to the NE the low pressure did not develop with a major negatively tilted trough and as a result you can the isobar orientation more NE and you don't get that crazy wrapped up solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Usually when a high escapes toward the Can. Maritimes, the end result is a change to rain for LI/NYC. However, when the low bombs and tracks far enough off the coast, that tends to maintain ageostrophic NE winds and hold the cold air in. The Lindsay Storm in Feb 1969 is one such example, and Jan 22-23 1987 is another. I'm not talking about any specific model here, just the general setup. Would Feb 1961 and the Millenium storm be two other storms that were good in this respect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Jan 22 1987 was one of the worst forecast busts in modern times. I remember forecasts of 1-3" with a quick change to rain for NYC and western LI. The change to rain came for the eastern 2/3 of LI, but western LI and NYC only changed to freezing drizzle in the last few hours of the event and ended up with 8-11". I was in 2nd grade and got stuck at school for 5 hours because the plows weren't ready for the storm. http://www.meteo.psu...1987/us0122.php You can see what happened there is that while the high was way off to the NE the low pressure did not develop with a major negatively tilted trough and as a result you can the isobar orientation more NE and you don't get that crazy wrapped up solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Generally an east based -NAO is as good as a +NAO SG, does the law of commutation apply? IOW is there such a thing as an east and west based +NAO, and if there is, would an east based -NAO be like a west based +NAO and a west based -NAO like an east based +NAO? Do you follow my reasoning here? Also, how much would the +PNA benefit us by neutralizing any negative impacts of the NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Jan 22 1987 was one of the worst forecast busts in modern times. I remember forecasts of 1-3" with a quick change to rain for NYC and western LI. The change to rain came for the eastern 2/3 of LI, but western LI and NYC only changed to freezing drizzle in the last few hours of the event and ended up with 8-11". I was in 2nd grade and got stuck at school for 5 hours because the plows weren't ready for the storm. Sounds like the Millenium storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The NAO block will be over Iceland/Norwegian Sea, which isn't as favorable as Greenland/Davis Straits. Personally, I'm pretty bullish on this threat. I was talking late last week/early this week about how the MJO/GWO was lining up for the threat today, but the guidance was too progressive with the MJO. It's still in P7 currently, which is ok, but not perfect. It'll be in P8 next week. Looking at the individual ensemble members, you can see how the GFS/ECM ops are both way west of the best clustering. Still lots of details to work out, including the normal BL nonsense when we're missing a good west block, but things are looking pretty good as I see it. I believe both phase 7 and 8 of the MJO are good for east coast snow, but Phase 8 has been particularly linked to "the big ones." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Jan 22 1987 was one of the worst forecast busts in modern times. I remember forecasts of 1-3" with a quick change to rain for NYC and western LI. The change to rain came for the eastern 2/3 of LI, but western LI and NYC only changed to freezing drizzle in the last few hours of the event and ended up with 8-11". I was in 2nd grade and got stuck at school for 5 hours because the plows weren't ready for the storm. The ironic thing was, that was the winter of near misses, and the one storm that was forecasted to miss us actually hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Jan 22 1987 was one of the worst forecast busts in modern times. I remember forecasts of 1-3" with a quick change to rain for NYC and western LI. The change to rain came for the eastern 2/3 of LI, but western LI and NYC only changed to freezing drizzle in the last few hours of the event and ended up with 8-11". I was in 2nd grade and got stuck at school for 5 hours because the plows weren't ready for the storm. The storm generated an insane amount of snows well in advance of the low which I think was surprising given that there was not really a big high present for the overrunning....it was similar to the 93 storm. I remember my mom picked me up from school around 1pm or so, I think there may have been some thunder that day as well. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KLGA/1987/1/22/DailyHistory.html?req_city=La+Guardia&req_state=NY&req_statename=New+York Thats just a ridiculous quick hit, that was 11 inches in about 7 hours...note the winds were 070-090 alot of the time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 SG, does the law of commutation apply? IOW is there such a thing as an east and west based +NAO, and if there is, would an east based -NAO be like a west based +NAO and a west based -NAO like an east based +NAO? Do you follow my reasoning here? Also, how much would the +PNA benefit us by neutralizing any negative impacts of the NAO? When we talk about east/west based -NAOs, we're generally concerned with where the block is set up. You could probably extend that to +NAOs with where the zonal flow is, but most of the time, the block is the more interesting phenomenon and that's what gets talked about. The +PNA helps with getting cold antecedent air masses in place and digging lows to the Gulf. I believe both phase 7 and 8 of the MJO are good for east coast snow, but Phase 8 has been particularly linked to "the big ones." Yeah, that's what I was implying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Too much millenium storm talk going on and I'm not sure why. I would love to break that storm down right now but I can't, maybe later if it's still a relevant topic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Too much millenium storm talk going on and I'm not sure why. I would love to break that storm down right now but I can't, maybe later if it's still a relevant topic Just with respect to coastal huggers that can cut up across Long Island and still produce heavy snow just to the west of the low. This low looks similar in the respect that the frz line is very close to the low center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just with respect to coastal huggers that can cut up across Long Island and still produce heavy snow just to the west of the low. This low looks similar in the respect that the frz line is very close to the low center. Very different setups though. the January 12th storm shared plenty of similarities to the millenium storm for what its worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Very different setups though. the January 12th storm shared plenty of similarities to the millenium storm for what its worth Sure did-- complete with the insane gradient lol. That was the New England reprisal storm considering what the Millenium Storm did to them. If this storm ends up giving us mostly rain or a mix, it would be like a lot of the late 80s early 90s events where these kinds of storms were the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Jan 22 1987 was one of the worst forecast busts in modern times. I remember forecasts of 1-3" with a quick change to rain for NYC and western LI. The change to rain came for the eastern 2/3 of LI, but western LI and NYC only changed to freezing drizzle in the last few hours of the event and ended up with 8-11". I was in 2nd grade and got stuck at school for 5 hours because the plows weren't ready for the storm. I was at LGA with a buddy going to see the Giants in the Superbowl. Our flight got canceled and had to head back to Flushing by bus wearing clothes for Cali weather. Wound up holed up in some dive bar in Flushing as couldn't get a cab. Had to wait like 4 days till got a flight out (think Friday before game). It was unseasonably warm in LA at that time as well...low 80's. Anyway...yea..remember that storm very well. On way to airport was flurries - then bam...snow curtain. Anyway...back to this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I was at LGA with a buddy going to see the Giants in the Superbowl. Our flight got canceled and had to head back to Flushing by bus wearing clothes for Cali weather. Wound up holed up in some dive bar in Flushing as couldn't get a cab. Had to wait like 4 days till got a flight out (think Friday before game). It was unseasonably warm in LA at that time as well...low 80's. Anyway...yea..remember that storm very well. On way to airport was flurries - then bam...snow curtain. Anyway...back to this storm... Unseasonably warm in LA? Hmmm, I wonder if they had a Santa Ana in progress? There's one going on there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Sure did-- complete with the insane gradient lol. That was the New England reprisal storm considering what the Millenium Storm did to them. If this storm ends up giving us mostly rain or a mix, it would be like a lot of the late 80s early 90s events where these kinds of storms were the norm. The snow/rain/snow scenario some models hinted at is possible though unlikely....the 00z GFS would be snow-rain since the low occludes by the time it gets to the areas NE of the area where you could see wraparound snows...we'd need a low that was relatively strong but did not occlude too soon after passing...12/25/02 is one of the few storms where NYC went snow-rain-snow and the only storm on record where NYC recorded 6 inches of snow and one inch of rain,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The snow/rain/snow scenario some models hinted at is possible though unlikely....the 00z GFS would be snow-rain since the low occludes by the time it gets to the areas NE of the area where you could see wraparound snows...we'd need a low that was relatively strong but did not occlude too soon after passing...12/25/02 is one of the few storms where NYC went snow-rain-snow and the only storm on record where NYC recorded 6 inches of snow and one inch of rain,. Yes, we usually dont get much wraparound because NW winds downslope.... usually if it does switch back to snow at the end, its just a token period of flurries or light snow. That 12/25/02 storm was another surprise hit-- and a shocker that Nassau was in the jackpot (as they were much of that winter, also in PD2 and the April storm.) We also had some wrap around from Dec 92-- to the tune of 1-3 inches, because the storm was so slow moving (took 3 days to clear the area and the winds stayed up for another 2 days after that!) The funny thing is you and I can do better than that record you posted-- our own dubious distinction came from Feb 26 last year when we had over an inch of rain followed by over a foot of snow. I measured 1.09 inches of rain followed by 14 inches of snow. I believe JFK had over an inch of rain followed by over 10 inches of snow-- which is a record for them, isnt it? BTW how much rain did NYC record with March 1888? One would think they had quite a bit of rainfall before being hit by the blizzard just based on the temps at the start of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Another Pacific mission I believe is scheduled for the 12z run today, see how that affects the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Snow ratios with this storm, should be 8to1 or 10 to 1 I believe. With this much qpf, higher ratios could give people 20- 40 inches, that would be nuts, but unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Snow ratios with this storm, should be 8to1 or 10 to 1 I believe. With this much qpf, higher ratios could give people 20- 40 inches, that would be nuts, but unlikely I think Providence recorded something like 23 inches of snow with 7.25 liquid in the 1992 storm...I don't envision that but yeah, 8 to 1 is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think Providence recorded something like 23 inches of snow with 7.25 liquid in the 1992 storm...I don't envision that but yeah, 8 to 1 is possible. SG, check out Feb 1961 at JFK-- 24.1" of snow with 2.75" liquid precip, with some sleet tossed in for "bad" measure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think Providence recorded something like 23 inches of snow with 7.25 liquid in the 1992 storm...I don't envision that but yeah, 8 to 1 is possible. Did April 1997 also have low ratios over SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think Providence recorded something like 23 inches of snow with 7.25 liquid in the 1992 storm...I don't envision that but yeah, 8 to 1 is possible. So what could u envision the ratios setting up with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Day 4 and 5 QPF maps from HPC already loaded with moisture for the mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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