Alpha5 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So both major global ensemble suites are showing the classic coastal track. Yes the OP is about 6 hours slower than the ensembles and on the western side of the ensemble group. a handful of members seem to have an inland runner, but the vast majority have a track similar if not further east than the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hopefully more like December 2000 aka Millenium Blizzard-- the bold part really reminds me of that. Storm tracked over Central LI and Western LI stayed all snow That's NOT nice Alex. We did horribly in that one. I'd much rather the March '93 scenario. ( I just noticed the map, look how they spelled Philadelphia! ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 seriously, relax...i only saw the 12 hr increments and it looked like that I am well relaxed ...did not mean anything by it was just clarifying what the model shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That 6z GFS run smells of a dynamic heavy wet snow for EWR and all the NW suburbs..not buying surface temperatures at 132 hours. Through experience and what I have picked up on this and previous boards, the highs are not in good spots to bring cold air into this storm. Things can change, but current timing on the models is not good (cold air exiting stage right and another batch of cold air too far left). Some snow pre & post main storm is possible, but a lot of rain as currently depicted imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 HPC wrote about the GFS means and how it is that models bias in the means... Yes and we all know how reliable the HPC has been this winter Not really lol. Both ensemble suites being east should be saying something-- especially the euro ensembles, which have done quite well this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That's NOT nice Alex. We did horribly in that one. I'd much rather the March '93 scenario. ( I just noticed the map, look how they spelled Philadelphia! ) Haha who wrote that?! I'd rather see a PD2 scenario where we all get buried -- the sweet spot for the Millenium storm was NJ lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 You're probably somewhere out by Carbon County right? That's where my sister lives and she's been saying what a weird winter it's been out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This setup is screaming HECS...if we get the low to move 50 miles east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I've seen that map so many times over the years and never noticed that, then again I just never really looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I hope we get something like the current storm, just magnify the storm totals by 3x Nice uniformity with the coverage, everyone will be between 3-6 inches for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The vaunted nogaps did move east though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Haha who wrote that?! I'm guessing State College as it's from their website. You're probably somewhere out by Carbon County right? That's where my sister lives and she's been saying what a weird winter it's been out there. Actually Schuylkill which got nothing from that event. I'd rather see a PD2 scenario where we all get buried -- the sweet spot for the Millenium storm was NJ lol That sounds good. That way we all enjoy a big snowfall. I'm liking that most models portray a rather large event next week. Of course we all know they'll change, but the signal is there for the potential for something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Through experience and what I have picked up on this and previous boards, the highs are not in good spots to bring cold air into this storm. Things can change, but current timing on the models is not good (cold air exiting stage right and another batch of cold air too far left). Some snow pre & post main storm is possible, but a lot of rain as currently depicted imho. The location of the high doesn't matter if you're looking at the 6z GFS verbatim...850s are below 0C here, surface temps are 32/33, and 1" QPF falls in 6 hours...that's a snow bomb for sure...I'm not immediately on the coastal plain but in the hills of Central Westchester. NYC is probably like 60% snow 40% mix...You've got a 528dm closed low over the area so there's incredible dynamics that are forcing cold air into the system, very similar to what happened in VT/Upstate NY in the 4/15/2007 storm when we got buried with 6-12". By the way, both the GFS and ECM Ensembles have the storm occurring faster while the high is in better position over Upstate NY/New England, with the low being further east on the vast majority of the ensembles. So those are a more traditional Nor'easter than the OP runs, and more accurate at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This setup is screaming HECS...if we get the low to move 50 miles east It's really not that simple. We would still need a blocking High. Otherwise it goes over to snow/ice like Monday-Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This setup is screaming HECS...if we get the low to move 50 miles east Strongly agree...could be a huge blizzard here. The worst thing that probably happens is we get +SN-->RN/IP-->SN as the system exits and bombs. Too much cold air in place for an all rain event unless the track really shifts west to the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 here are the indiv gfs ens members http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_6z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Strongly agree...could be a huge blizzard here. The worst thing that probably happens is we get +SN-->RN/IP-->SN as the system exits and bombs. Too much cold air in place for an all rain event unless the track really shifts west to the Apps. Im going to laugh if we all get 20" and like 30% of it isnt snow-- who honestly cares, 20" of snow is 20" of snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 verbatim the 6z GFS would be a mess for MBY 0.87" falls as snow, then 0.88" as ice, 0.58" as rain, and flurries on the back end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 here are the indiv gfs ens members http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html All of them look good; I couldnt find a single one that didnt have the 0 line getting past the eastern end of LI... and some remarkable consistency also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 All of them look good; I couldnt find a single one that didnt have the 0 line getting past the eastern end of LI... and some remarkable consistency also. ?...i see 2 that do, both cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 heres the euro ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Strongly agree...could be a huge blizzard here. The worst thing that probably happens is we get +SN-->RN/IP-->SN as the system exits and bombs. Too much cold air in place for an all rain event unless the track really shifts west to the Apps. ?? I'm not following you guys. If the high escapes, and the low is that strong, a screaming east wind at the surface will change us to rain in a heartbeat. The high drifitng offshore alone means we dont have a -NAO/ 50/50 in place, hence this is not a HECS setup for NYC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ?...i see 2 that do, both cutters. Sorry I had to zoom in with all those lines packed closely together. Im going by where the 0 (yellow) line is, the ones which have issues are COO1 AND POO2, and it seems like its only at hr 132. There are quite a few close shaves however (two more-- COO0 and POO4). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ?? I'm not following you guys. If the high escapes, and the low is that strong, a screaming east wind at the surface will change us to rain in a heartbeat. The high drifitng offshore alone means we dont have a -NAO/ 50/50 in place, hence this is not a HECS setup for NYC proper I think theyre talking about the likelihood of that run verifying verbatim vs what the ensembles have, which is quicker and further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ?? I'm not following you guys. If the high escapes, and the low is that strong, a screaming east wind at the surface will change us to rain in a heartbeat. The high drifitng offshore alone means we dont have a -NAO/ 50/50 in place, hence this is not a HECS setup for NYC proper I'm talking about what the 6z GFS shows...the 32 line is just north of NYC even with strong easterly flow, 850s mostly stay below 0C. Where I live in Westchester, we'd stay all snow with dynamics. We're talking about an H5 low with three closed contours at 138, so that's an incredibly deep system that can cool you dynamically in a heartbeat. The -NAO is east-based but it's still a decent block combined with the huge +PNA ridge out west. This run verbatim is probably a MECS for NYC and a HECS for the suburbs. Remember, strong east winds aren't as big a deal as usual. Coastal SSTs are around 35F due to the unusually cold winter, and they'll go down a few ticks with the arctic outbreak this weekend. Much of the Hudson River and parts of LI Sound should be frozen by Tuesday. This isn't an ordinary winter so thinking in general terms about the bad effects of east winds isn't relevant. Also, the 0z ECM ENS and 6z GFS ENS are well east of the OP runs, suggesting the discussion is moot. A coastal track would certainly be favored considering the seasonal trend and good blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think theyre talking about the likelihood of that run verifying verbatim vs what the ensembles have, which is quicker and further east. The ensemble mean is further east Im assuming because its a mix of the stormy solutions which are rainy and the suppressed ones? I mean, the NAO is raging postive and the confluence goes bye bye. I cant picture this not changing to all rain for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm talking about what the 6z GFS shows...the 32 line is just north of NYC even with strong easterly flow, 850s mostly stay below 0C. Where I live in Westchester, we'd stay all snow with dynamics. We're talking about an H5 low with three closed contours at 138, so that's an incredibly deep system that can cool you dynamically in a heartbeat. The -NAO is east-based but it's still a decent block combined with the huge +PNA ridge out west. This run verbatim is probably a MECS for NYC and a HECS for the suburbs. Remember, strong east winds aren't as big a deal as usual. Coastal SSTs are around 35F due to the unusually cold winter, and they'll go down a few ticks with the arctic outbreak this weekend. Much of the Hudson River and parts of LI Sound should be frozen by Tuesday. This isn't an ordinary winter so thinking in general terms about the bad effects of east winds isn't relevant. Also, the 0z ECM ENS and 6z GFS ENS are well east of the OP runs, suggesting the discussion is moot. A coastal track would certainly be favored considering the seasonal trend and good blocking. Ok you further north could always work out. I guess I was being a little coastal NJ/NYc proper- centric 40-50º ocean temps arent too far offshore remember. A strong easterly fetch will bring that air inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm talking about what the 6z GFS shows...the 32 line is just north of NYC even with strong easterly flow, 850s mostly stay below 0C. Where I live in Westchester, we'd stay all snow with dynamics. We're talking about an H5 low with three closed contours at 138, so that's an incredibly deep system that can cool you dynamically in a heartbeat. The -NAO is east-based but it's still a decent block combined with the huge +PNA ridge out west. This run verbatim is probably a MECS for NYC and a HECS for the suburbs. Remember, strong east winds aren't as big a deal as usual. Coastal SSTs are around 35F due to the unusually cold winter, and they'll go down a few ticks with the arctic outbreak this weekend. Much of the Hudson River and parts of LI Sound should be frozen by Tuesday. This isn't an ordinary winter so thinking in general terms about the bad effects of east winds isn't relevant. Also, the 0z ECM ENS and 6z GFS ENS are well east of the OP runs, suggesting the discussion is moot. A coastal track would certainly be favored considering the seasonal trend and good blocking. Some really good points, Nate. Also, let's keep in mind that the Millenium storm featured similar SST and that storm was also a hugger that stayed all snow. While the gradient to the west and east wont be as sharp, thankfully, it could be the same kind of scenario with snow right up to or very close to the path of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The ensemble mean is further east Im assuming because its a mix of the stormy solutions which are rainy and the suppressed ones? I mean, the NAO is raging postive and the confluence goes bye bye. I cant picture this not changing to all rain for us I thought you (or maybe it was someone else) said that the NAO goes negative for awhile next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The ensemble mean is further east Im assuming because its a mix of the stormy solutions which are rainy and the suppressed ones? I mean, the NAO is raging postive and the confluence goes bye bye. I cant picture this not changing to all rain for us The NAO is not positive for this storm...you can see on CPC it is weakly negative: You can see the east-based block here with all the strong south winds at H5 east of Greenland: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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