atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Philly this run looks like snow-rain-snow Northern suburbs are a very close call Lehigh Valley would probably stay mostly snow. NYC looks to be right near the freezing line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Is this the current 6z DGEX run? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_6z/dgexloop.html#picture If so, it is colder and still has a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Snowfall rates might be the saving grace here. I take it it doesnt track the low over Philly anymore? Good news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This may be the storm that all the central PA people have been waiting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If the coast can stay cold enough, there is potential for 14-18 inches quite easily of heavy cement paste. Winds to 45 mph. Wet snow blizzard for PHL and NYC. PNA looks perfect with Ridge access just a little west of Boise and antecedent cold cA airmass to work on. Wet snow / blizzard warnings again ??? Is there potential for 20-25 inches of cement with high QPF event possible? Major event ?? Just inland - crushed. Coastal areas - just making it and getting crushed with a 32 degree barrage of cement with 1.5 to 2.0 liquid QPF. Amazing to anticipate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This run is somewhat more favorable for NYC and surrounding northwest suburbs regarding a closer all-snow wet snow scenario. At H5, the 06z GFS did not lag the southern shortwave as much as the 0z GFS did; thus, you'd get a slightly more progressive solution. You can see this is evident by noticing that the trough isn't as negatively-tilted as the 0z was prior the the storm coming up the coast. With a more progressive solution, the storm should was able to escape to the east slightly than the 0z run. The 0* C line at H5 doesn't reach NYC at all during this run; whereas the 0z had it 50 miles northwest of the city. Furthermore, the area of the 50/50 Low and confluence was slightly more present on this run. If any met would like to chime in on my analysis to see if the points I made are viable, then that would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If the coast can stay cold enough, there is potential for 14-18 inches quite easily of heavy cement paste. Winds to 45 mph. Wet snow blizzard for PHL and NYC. PNA looks perfect with Ridge access just a little west of Boise and antecedent cold cA airmass to work on. Wet snow / blizzard warnings again ??? If the 06Z GFS were a perfect prog, a good deal of the storm for PHI-NYC would be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If the coast can stay cold enough, there is potential for 14-18 inches quite easily of heavy cement paste. Winds to 45 mph. Wet snow blizzard for PHL and NYC. PNA looks perfect with Ridge access just a little west of Boise and antecedent cold cA airmass to work on. Wet snow / blizzard warnings again ??? It's going to be a close call but the 6z GFS is a 2' blizzard for much of the NYC metro area...looks like extremely wet snow with heavy rates and high winds. Signal is definitely on all models for a massive Nor'easter affecting the region Tuesday/Wednesday. We just need to stay on the cold side of this one, but given the ideal location of the PNA ridge, the arctic high over Upstate NY, and the ridge in the North Atlantic...there's a good possibility it's a mostly white event from I-95 NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm actually wondering if this might play out like March 1993 in regards to the rain/snow/sleet up here. We could actually get a good front end pounding before any changeover. Also the freezing line is just west of the low, slight eastward adjustment would take us from a changeover storm to a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This may be the storm that all the central PA people have been waiting for. Yes sir....A storm over 3" would be much appreciated this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 again, the 6z gfs ens mean offshore like 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm actually wondering if this might play out like March 1993 in regards to the rain/snow/sleet up here. We could actually get a good front end pounding before any changeover. Also the freezing line is just west of the low, slight eastward adjustment would take us from a changeover storm to a blizzard. If going exclusively by the 0C line at H5 on the GFS, taken literally, on a line from Sandy Hook to 10 miles north of Trenton, NJ to just north of Harrisburg, Pa to west of York, Pa you can "smell the rain". Then on a line from just west of Sandy Hook to just east of NYC to Bridgeport, Ct to just south of Harford to Plymouth, Ma it would be a close call as well. Everyone north and west of those two lines (two frames on the GFS), could stay white with anywhere from 1.75" to almost 3.0" of QPF depending on location. Obviously, it is still 4 to 5 days out so it will change many times again. But the signal is there for the potential for a northeaster in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 again, the 6z gfs ens mean offshore like 0z How much precip. with the ensemble mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 How much precip. with the ensemble mean? .5-.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm actually wondering if this might play out like March 1993 in regards to the rain/snow/sleet up here. We could actually get a good front end pounding before any changeover. Also the freezing line is just west of the low, slight eastward adjustment would take us from a changeover storm to a blizzard. Hopefully more like December 2000 aka Millenium Blizzard-- the bold part really reminds me of that. Storm tracked over Central LI and Western LI stayed all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If going exclusively by the 0C line at H5 on the GFS, taken literally, on a line from Sandy Hook to 10 miles north of Trenton, NJ to just north of Harrisburg, Pa to west of York, Pa you can "smell the rain". Then on a line from just west of Sandy Hook to just east of NYC to Bridgeport, Ct to just south of Harford to Plymouth, Ma it would be a close call as well. Everyone north and west of those two lines (two frames on the GFS), could stay white with anywhere from 1.75" to almost 3.0" of QPF depending on location. Obviously, it is still 4 to 5 days out so it will change many times again. But the signal is there for the potential for a northeaster in that time frame. Close call, but still sounds good for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 .5-.75 Thanks. I assume it's colder? Going back to bed. Big bombs shown can keep you up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If the 06Z GFS were a perfect prog, a good deal of the storm for PHI-NYC would be rain. Doubt that-- because the heavy rates would dynamically cool the column-- looks more like a heavy wet snowstorm. And the ensembles being east doesnt hurt either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 6z nogaps is east of its 0z run. Takes the low from orf to bout 50-75 miles east of nj http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 6z nogaps is east of its 0z run. Takes the low from orf to bout 50-75 miles east of nj http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml Yup, went from inland cutter to coastal hugger-- actually that spot is probably the perfect location for the majority of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 6z nogaps is east of its 0z run. Takes the low from orf to bout 50-75 miles east of nj http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml Tom. Where is the 0C line at H5 on that map for various frames? By my untrained eyes, it looks warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I took a look at the euro ensemble spag plots... they all have this storm, many of them equally as strong as the OP However, the OP is clearly on the western edge of the its ensembles, so before everyone gets riled up about r/s lines...remember the OP euro is most likely too far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Tom. Where is the 0C line at H5 on that map for various frames? By my untrained eyes, it looks warm. that map doesn't have the 0c line, but verbatum with the 540 line that far west its warm most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I took a look at the euro ensemble spag plots... they all have this storm, many of them equally as strong as the OP However, the OP is clearly on the western edge of the its ensembles, so before everyone gets riled up about r/s lines...remember the OP euro is most likely too far west So both major global ensemble suites are showing the classic coastal track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The soundings for KJK and EWR are above freezing by 123 hours or so...the easterly flow is just too strong...the mid-levels near really do get that warm but the surface gets to 43 by hour 132...we need a 75-100 mile shift east from the 06Z run and its possible it could happen for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Its a inland coastal hugger... Definitely not 50-75 miles off NJ Coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The soundings for KJK and EWR are above freezing by 123 hours or so...the easterly flow is just too strong...the mid-levels near really do get that warm but the surface gets to 43 by hour 132...we need a 75-100 mile shift east from the 06Z run and its possible it could happen for the coast. That 6z GFS run smells of a dynamic heavy wet snow for EWR and all the NW suburbs..not buying surface temperatures at 132 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The soundings for KJK and EWR are above freezing by 123 hours or so...the easterly flow is just too strong...the mid-levels near really do get that warm but the surface gets to 43 by hour 132...we need a 75-100 mile shift east from the 06Z run and its possible it could happen for the coast. Do you think both major global ensemble suites being east is a good sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Do you think both major global ensemble suites being east is a good sign? HPC wrote about the GFS means and how it is that models bias in the means... THE 00Z GEFS MEAN WAS CONSIDERED USELESS WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIT WAS THE QUICKEST/MOST NORTHEAST...WHICH CAN BE A GFS/GEFS MEANBIAS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD /SINCE THEY USE THE SAME PHYSICS PACKAGE/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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