Storm At Sea Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I don't think that would be sleet with a nearly stacked low like that. It would likely be moist adiabatic from the surface up--so with 850's below 0 and surface temps around 33-35--seems like it would be snow as there would be no warm layer for sleet. Agreed, but only after it occludes.There will be plenty of time for bringing inland maritime air and most likely a massive dry slot to boot with patches of sleet/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 phl,abe,rdg,dc,balt,mdt,pitt,sce...2-2.5 Wrong subforum (but seeing as I spend half my life in NYC metro), you got anything for KLEB, NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I don't think that would be sleet with a nearly stacked low like that. It would likely be moist adiabatic from the surface up--so with 850's below 0 and surface temps around 33-35--seems like it would be snow as there would be no warm layer for sleet. I would totally agree and add that rather than the exact placement of the low, in this case, the nosing isobars/pressure falls to the e-ne would be a far more important factor and aid in preventing a warm layer. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 phl,abe,rdg,dc,balt,mdt,pitt,sce...2-2.5 What? No map? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Agreed, but only after it occludes.There will be plenty of time for bringing inland maritime air and most likely a massive dry slot to boot with patches of sleet/rain. I guess this isnt likely though (from what you said earlier) the storm wouldnt be likely to go over Philly anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Man..the euro is probably a plaster-fest. HPN gets up to 1.7 C at the surface but 850's don't get above -2.3 C. 6 hour QPF at 00z Thursday is 0.92". Much of the same at KEWR too...2.0 C at the sfc. Probably a scenario where anybody just inland or w/ slight elevation gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm not trying to be a debbie downer because I love snow as much as anyone on the forums. Yes this storm is 6 days away and anything is possible, but we are missing the great atlantic pattern that we had for the last several months. There really is nothing stopping this storm from cutting inland or being a coastal hugger. The high to our north is not in a great place and there are screaming southeast winds along the coast . It's the pattern that drives these storms, not the other way around....hopefully things trend in the right direction in the coming days..... I wonder if its just a matter of the strength of the storm-- if we have a weaker storm than the likelihood for it to cut lessens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 You know something is up when Ptravel is in the house. In any case, I just can't disagree more. ESE at 850 mb screams mix/rain. Sure, once the storm decays and wraps subtantial polar air from the south back into the I-95, everyone goes back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wrong subforum (but seeing as I spend half my life in NYC metro), you got anything for KLEB, NH? about 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I would totally agree and add that rather than the exact placement of the low, in this case, the nosing isobars/pressure falls to the e-ne would be a far more important factor and aid in preventing a warm layer. WX/PT You know something is up when Ptravel is in the house. In any case, I just can't disagree more. ESE at 850 mb screams mix/rain. Sure, once the storm decays and wraps subtantial polar air from the south back into the I-95, everyone goes back to snow. It would definitely be close. The height falls are incredible and it would be definitely difficult to get a warm layer in there--and WXoutlooksblog made a good point on the placement of the pressure falls. Either way I agree, very close, I do see the marine layer argument as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I wonder if its just a matter of the strength of the storm-- if we have a weaker storm than the likelihood for it to cut lessens. 100% agree, given the hostile 500mb pattern, if this thing doesn't ampify like most of the models are not showing, a colder and snowier solution would likely ensue for the coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 about 1.5 Much appreciated... As for this storm, I personally find it sickening and ridiculous that this has the possibility to be yet another 9+ inch storm in KNYC this season... Amazing stuff. An amazing winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wrong subforum (but seeing as I spend half my life in NYC metro), you got anything for KLEB, NH? 1.19" through 00z Fri 1/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The models have much better access to equations and responses to those equations than I do (I did Meteo until the end of my sophomore year), but if any input into those equations is wrong, and in any particular area where those equations are needed is insufficient for any reason, the potential for chaos increases about exponentially for the amount of time needed to reach a particular solution. It especially expresses itself in a heavily chaotic pattern such as a strong Nina, where numerous northern stream impulses (and resultant weakened southern stream impulses since each has some impact on the other in our energy conserved system) have more frequent and strengthened impulses (each requiring solutions to particular equations to determine their particular strengths and their resultant dampening and strengthening effects on subsequent or preceding waves since waves interfere or strengthen each other based on fluid thermodynamics) than a "normal" year. Chaos multiplies on chaos which is exponentially... etc. Very well said. Throw in the sub-grid scale interactions, model parametrizations to account for said sub-grid scale interactions, model noise, mountain drag and other poorly simulated effects (these waves will be passing through this mountain mess: http://goo.gl/0wTZf), precipitation processes and feedback errors, unsolved turbulence, numerical expressions of the Navier-Stokes dynamical equations, etc etc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 HPC prelim maps takes a 984 mb low to just inside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Fwiw...for the ice storm we had in dc...the euro was about 6 degrees too warm at the surface for dulles as we were in the mid 20s while euro had us at 32-33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Very well said. Throw in the sub-grid scale interactions, model parametrizations to account for said sub-grid scale interactions, model noise, mountain drag and other poorly simulated effects (these waves will be passing through this mountain mess: http://goo.gl/0wTZf), precipitation processes and feedback errors, unsolved turbulence, numerical expressions of the Navier-Stokes dynamical equations, etc etc etc. shhhh, youre going to confuse confuzzled even more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 HPC Prelim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The second frame looks better than the first lol--in the first that high is in an ugly place, but on the second you can see if the one coming in from the NW builds in quickly enough, we should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 any word on the euro ens? They arent updating on allans site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 SOUTHWEST/SOUTH/EAST...ALL THE GUIDANCE TRENDED SLOWER/WEST WITH THE LOW NEAR THE EASTCOAST...WITH THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF NOW AMONGST THE QUICKERGUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THEIR SOLUTION IS 12-24 HOURS SLOWER THANCONTINUITY. WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVERITS PAST DAY OF RUNS...CONFIDENCE IN THE QUICKER/MORE NORTHEAST12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS FADED...AS THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANSHOULD TREND SLOWER/TO THE LEFT IN SUIT WITH ITS DETERMINISTICRUN. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN WAS CONSIDERED USELESS WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIT WAS THE QUICKEST/MOST NORTHEAST...WHICH CAN BE A GFS/GEFS MEANBIAS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD /SINCE THEY USE THE SAMEPHYSICS PACKAGE/. THE 00Z UKMET SHOWS A PROGRESSION 12 HOURSSLOWER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF...WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN A FULL TWO DAYSSLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS THE CANADIANS EXPECTED PATTERN HASYET TO OCCUR THIS COLD SEASON /ENERGY CLOSING OFF AND LINGERING INTHE SOUTHWEST/...WILL RULE IT OUT HERE...EVEN THOUGH IT ISSUPPORTED PARTIALLY BY THE 00Z GEFS MEAN. WITH SOUTHERN STREAMENERGY SEPARATED A BIT FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM...FEEL SLOWINGDOWN CONTINUITY IS BEST...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE UKMET/CANADIANSOLUTIONS. WITH THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS AS FAR WEST AS IT IS NOWEXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...THE SURFACE CYCLONE COULDEASILY TRACK WITHIN THE COASTAL PLAIN/UP THE FALL LINE OF THEMID-ATLANTIC STATES...IF NOT PARTIALLY UP THE SOUTHERNAPPALACHIANS THEMSELVES LIKE THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGHTHE EAST HAS DONE...WHICH WAS NOT ANTICIPATED WELL 4-5 DAYS AGO. DETAIL ISSUES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DETERMINE ITS IMPACTON NEW ENGLAND...WHICH IS IN GREATER DOUBT. CONSIDERING THE FLOWPATTERN...FELT A SLOWER/MORE WESTERN SOLUTION WAS BEST SO USED A00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS COMPROMISE WHICH RESPECTS THE ANTICIPATED UPPERTROUGH POSITION WHICH IS WITHIN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE 12Z GLOBALENSEMBLE SPREAD. THIS PLACEMENT WITHIN THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREADVERIFIED WELL AT THIS TIME RANGE ON DECEMBER 26 NEAR THE EASTCOAST AND IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON NEW YEARS DAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS NO GREATER THAN AVERAGE.ROTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro ensembles are perfect..1004mb low tracks East of OC, MD to inside the Benchmark...it's like 996 at that point. Cold enough for snow for everybody and a good amount of QPF (at least for this range). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Also...at 144 hrs H5 is closed at 534 dm over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Also...at 144 hrs H5 is closed at 534 dm over NYC This sounds great Would also fit with the seasonal trend being for lots of coastal storms, not inland cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Better than the OP, if everyone wants snow, similar to the 12z OP EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 And a slower storm should actually help us with that new arctic high building in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 shhhh, youre going to confuse confuzzled even more I think he got banned according to that OT thread--or at least suspended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 looks like 6z gfs is going to a hugger or inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS looks about the same. Freezing line just north of Philly. A slight east shift is all that's needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 looks like 6z gfs is going to a hugger or inland. Coastal hugger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.