Zir0b Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 from midlo hr 144 sub 992 off of del nyc to bos getting nailed baroclinic_instability Wow. IF the Euro verified that would be a heavy wet snow just glancing at the height fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Sounds like more snow on this run for the cities than the GFS has - correct, Tom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 all the models must of injested some data tonight to show these solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 from midlo baroclinic_instability Jason is right-- note that even if the freezing line is north of us, the 850 line is offshore, so the air is dynamically cooled and producing some very heavy wet snow. You can have a heavy wet snowstorm with temps in the mid 30s, as long as the 850s are at or below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 from midlo baroclinic_instability Hmm so sounds more white than what Tom was describing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This is probably righ where we want to be. I really doubt this solution sticks for the next 72 HR. It's difficult to get low pressure center over PHL, especially given the trend for the season and the general pattern. I suspect that a track 100 miles east or west of PHL is more likely to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 all the models must of injested some data tonight to show these solutions. Collective model indigestion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Not really inland when its off the eastern tip of Long Island. It looks pretty similiar to the GFS, inland initially over the Mid-Atlantic then it moves ENE off the NJ coast, looks like a heavy snow to heavy rain back to snow per 0Z EURO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njwinter Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Tombo... What do you mean? Bad data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This is probably righ where we want to be. I really doubt this solution sticks for the next 72 HR. It's difficult to get low pressure center over PHL, especially given the trend for the season and the general pattern. I suspect that a track 100 miles east or west of PHL is more likely to occur. The seasonal trend would be more 100 miles east of PHL as it seems almost all of the tracks shift to the east some which would be good for all of us region-wide and not have that sharp cut off that almost all of the other storms have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Jason is right-- note that even if the freezing line is north of us, the 850 line is offshore, so the air is dynamically cooled and producing some very heavy wet snow. You can have a heavy wet snowstorm with temps in the mid 30s, as long as the 850s are at or below freezing. So if we use the Dec 1992 analog but now place in the heart of winter=MECS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It looks pretty similiar to the GFS, inland initially over the Mid-Atlantic then it moves ENE off the NJ coast, looks like a heavy snow to heavy rain back to snow per 0Z EURO.... Euro is all heavy wet snow since everything is dynamically cooled Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hmm so sounds more white than what Tom was describing? i can't really tell john, yes the 850s are below frz, but the surface is above there could be a warm layer from 925 down. Though, the dynamics shown could deff be a wet snowstorm, elevation on the 0z euro would be golden or being further nw. Whenever you have a low over charlottesville or ric, se winds are coming in, thats an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It looks pretty similiar to the GFS, inland initially over the Mid-Atlantic then it moves ENE off the NJ coast, looks like a heavy snow to heavy rain back to snow per 0Z EURO.... the thermal profiles are completely different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, seems like a borderline set-up for sure, but better than the GFS for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It looks pretty similiar to the GFS, inland initially over the Mid-Atlantic then it moves ENE off the NJ coast, looks like a heavy snow to heavy rain back to snow per 0Z EURO.... It does look like that, except that if the 850s stay below freezing, then surface temps in the mid 30s can still produce dynamically cooled very heavy wet snow. I've always wanted to see a repeat of April 1996, with the focus of the heaviest snow to the west of that system-- let's see if we can pull that off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks like all snow based on 850s and thickness. <5400. Also 500mb low is overhead with very low heights. Would be warm near surface but cold aloft. Megadump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So if we use the Dec 1992 analog but now place in the heart of winter=MECS? It's possible. You have to remember that SST are now around 35 degrees, and I personally remember every little detail about Dec 1992 and we were so close to being in the heavy wet snow it was excruciating. Parts of NJ had over a foot and a half (and not even just NW NJ but closer in), and there were some reports coming out of the north shore of LI of a half foot or more. Basically it was 38 degrees and raining with hurricane force gusts for the first two days of the storm, with a changeover to snow on the third day. Our tv mets were saying if that storm had occurred in the heart of winter it would have been all snow. SST were in the 40s when it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So if we use the Dec 1992 analog but now place in the heart of winter=MECS? The December 1992 analog, really is a bit over the top, ( I am not calling you out or anything) but that had perhaps the largest cutoff low I have seen on a NARR map and it had a huge explosive moisture inflow. IF the Dec 1992 analog were to occur, 75 miles SE, it would be one of the all time great storms. It would actually be the number one storm of all time, given the H500 and H7, and H850 closed/cutoff lows contours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What is the QPF on the ECM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The seasonal trend would be more 100 miles east of PHL as it seems almost all of the tracks shift to the east some which would be good for all of us region-wide and not have that sharp cut off that almost all of the other storms have had. Hey, this is a case where everyone (YES EVEN YOU VOYAGER ) wants an eastward track-- QPF wont be a problem with this system for anyone in our area even if this storm takes a XMAS Day after Blizzard kind of track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The December 1992 analog, really is a bit over the top, ( I am not calling you out or anything) but that had perhaps the largest cutoff low I have seen on a NARR map and it had a huge explosive moisture inflow. IF the Dec 1992 analog were to occur, 75 miles SE, it would be one of the all time great storms. Not comparing it to 1992, but some people were mentioning it earlier, anyway good point about the NARR map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The December 1992 analog, really is a bit over the top, ( I am not calling you out or anything) but that had perhaps the largest cutoff low I have seen on a NARR map and it had a huge explosive moisture inflow. IF the Dec 1992 analog were to occur, 75 miles SE, it would be one of the all time great storms. It would actually be the number one storm of all time, given the H500 and H7, and H850 closed/cutoff lows contours. I would still put it a close second behind March 1888 just based on what I've read about that storm But yes-- very close to the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Very, very difficult to get snow from PHL to LGA when a surface low is sitting near or over PHL. Despite <0C 850 mb temps, one has to expect BL thermal profiles more consistent with sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hey, this is a case where everyone (YES EVEN YOU VOYAGER ) wants an eastward track-- QPF wont be a problem with this system for anyone in our area even if this storm takes a XMAS Day after Blizzard kind of track. I'm not trying to be a debbie downer because I love snow as much as anyone on the forums. Yes this storm is 6 days away and anything is possible, but we are missing the great atlantic pattern that we had for the last several months. There really is nothing stopping this storm from cutting inland or being a coastal hugger. The high to our north is not in a great place and there are screaming southeast winds along the coast . It's the pattern that drives these storms, not the other way around....hopefully things trend in the right direction in the coming days..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Very, very difficult to get snow from PHL to LGA when a surface low is sitting near or over PHL. Despite <0C 850 mb temps, one has to expect BL thermal profiles more consistent with sleet. Sleet is a 4 letter word on these forums... Though I never understood why... Sleet's pretty darn awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Very, very difficult to get snow from PHL to LGA when a surface low is sitting near or over PHL. Despite <0C 850 mb temps, one has to expect BL thermal profiles more consistent with sleet. I don't think that would be sleet with a nearly stacked low like that. It would likely be moist adiabatic from the surface up--so with 850's below 0 and surface temps around 33-35--seems like it would be snow as there would be no warm layer for sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Sleet is a 4 letter word on these forums... Though I never understood why... Sleet's pretty darn awesome. It's not awesome to shovel it. It feels like you are shoveling bricks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It's not awesome to shovel it. It feels like you are shoveling bricks. I have shoveled it, and it's good for the young body. Not for the middle aged or old, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What is the QPF on the ECM? phl,abe,rdg,dc,balt,mdt,pitt,sce...2-2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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