Hailstorm Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 hr 126 southern S/W washing out northern has opened up more energy diving back into colorado 1036 hi in new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Getting the vibe in this pattern that the +PNA isn't going to cut it for us the same way the -NAO and blocking scored the bigger hits. Pattern of highs pulling off the coast as storm enters isn't a really good combo. Any word on the fate of the NAO in the next 5-10 days? We need that blocking pattern back we had in late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The storm that forms off the SE Coast at Day 3 can be a huge aid to this event if it can explode as it heads into the Maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 hr 144 mod-heavy snow in VA/DC area....light snow up to nyc...low pressure over the panhandel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'll let Allsnow handle the play-by-play now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The storm that forms off the SE Coast at Day 3 can be a huge aid to this event if it can explode as it heads into the Maritimes. Right. The euro intensifies this storm more than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 EC DAY 6: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Sorry guys, I'm not putting words in peoples' mouths, just not seeing support for it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 this is going to be a apps runner......all of va and dca has changed over to rain after a good thump....light snow for the metro area hr 150.....but the 850's are warming quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 150 has heavy precip up and down the eats coats.. 850 line from DC south... surface line moving north.. 1036 high sliding off the east coast of maine. Big DEEP trough over the central conus, almost closed off at h5 by Mich.. Pos tilt before the MS river so far.. 156 big neutral trough splitting the MS river...blob of precip over east coast.. 40 south is rain, NYC stradling the 850 line 162. low orginizing by VA beach...trough going neg.. about to close off again over OH valley.. 168, rainstorm for most of MA and NE...broad 1000mb low over NJ.. trough neg, nothing closed off.... Seems like the 1036 high is torching the WHOLE bl.. maybe a SNE snowstorm... (verbatim, a front end dump for NYC north) 174 GL and far western NY/SE canada snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 There is nothing to keep the high in place--it scoots rapidly eastward and thus the winds shift more easterly and southeasterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Wow, GGEM and EC look worlds apart. OK, guess there is some support :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 hr 162 low looks to be over dca....whole east coast being flooded with warm air...850's north of mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 God the models are all over with this, the Euro progression from 120-144 is very odd....how does that disturbance in the south manage to seemingly "wait" for the northern stream for 24 hours to come and phase with it...no way this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 I feel as though if the high were in better position this would end up getting supressed with the DC area hitting the JP and NYC on north missing out. Reminds me of a few systems from last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 hr 162 low looks to be over dca....whole east coast being flooded with warm air...850's north of mass how warm are the surface temps? heavy rain here? we might be looking at the east coast being flooded with water, not just warm air thanks to this hefty snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 the front end thump on the euro is not much...prob close to the last event we had...1-2. DCA and bwi get the most prob 3-6 for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 EC DAY 7: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 God the models are all over with this, the Euro progression from 120-144 is very odd....how does that disturbance in the south manage to seemingly "wait" for the northern stream for 24 hours to come and phase with it...no way this happens. I was thinking same thing, Listening to the analysis is like a train wreck is it good, is it bad ,is it in between.. As usual each model has a different interpretation of next weeks storm chance , I guess the good news is at least all models are picking up on it in some form or another.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 God the models are all over with this, the Euro progression from 120-144 is very odd....how does that disturbance in the south manage to seemingly "wait" for the northern stream for 24 hours to come and phase with it...no way this happens. So what do you think would happen if the Euro did not "wait" for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 the front end thump on the euro is not much...prob close to the last event we had...1-2. DCA and bwi get the most prob 3-6 for them The problem is again the models want to go towards a monster storm as opposed to a SW flow event...a SW flow event with that high can drop major front end snows, but by slowing and phasing and blahhh blahhhh blahhhhhhhhhhh taking its sweet old time to fire the high has too much time to move out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 how warm are the surface temps? heavy rain here? we might be looking at the east coast being flooded with water, not just warm air thanks to this hefty snowpack. heavy rain and prob around 50 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I love how it stalls out then heads due east to the benchmark at 180 hrs and deepens to 980 mb. and changes everyone back to light snow. This would be amazing if we just had a cold high pressure to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 So what do you think would happen if the Euro did not "wait" for it? A repeat of last night's Euro or UKMET...a weak low coming up the coast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 A repeat of last night's Euro or UKMET...a weak low coming up the coast/ Looks like that would be the better bet. Do you think the high could stay in place longer than progged? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It actually changes everyone over to light snow as it heads east and bombs to a 972mb eventually in the Gulf of Maine at 186 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The problem is again the models want to go towards a monster storm as opposed to a SW flow event...a SW flow event with that high can drop major front end snows, but by slowing and phasing and blahhh blahhhh blahhhhhhhhhhh taking its sweet old time to fire the high has too much time to move out. Yeah i agree...the solution is prob bunk......it waits like you said for the northern stream while the high is moving out.....its a 150hr forcast...we need to take it with a grain of salt...plus last week this time i believe the models had me losing my snowpack also....we all know how that turn out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Any chance the Friday storm can help us out by possibly blowing up and getting to the 50/50 spot to hold that High in place longer? Odds of that happening? What do the models depict happening to the Friday low after it leaves us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like that would be the better bet. Do you think the high could stay in place longer than progged? Yeah its possible if that SE coast low at 96 hours can explode as it moves into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Mid 40's for height of storm for NYC-BOS (eastern 1/3 of PA, to SE NY, all of MASS and points South and east higher shore points higher.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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