Thunder Road Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 144 Posted Image That's still last night's. 144 hours would be 00z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That's still last night's. 144 hours would be 00z Thursday. clear your cache Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Fantastic post. One of the best I have read in years. To believe any solution depicted by these models at this time is folly and pretty much a waste of time and energy. The models have much better access to equations and responses to those equations than I do (I did Meteo until the end of my sophomore year), but if any input into those equations is wrong, and in any particular area where those equations are needed is insufficient for any reason, the potential for chaos increases about exponentially for the amount of time needed to reach a particular solution. It especially expresses itself in a heavily chaotic pattern such as a strong Nina, where numerous northern stream impulses (and resultant weakened southern stream impulses since each has some impact on the other in our energy conserved system) have more frequent and strengthened impulses (each requiring solutions to particular equations to determine their particular strengths and their resultant dampening and strengthening effects on subsequent or preceding waves since waves interfere or strengthen each other based on fluid thermodynamics) than a "normal" year. Chaos multiplies on chaos which is exponentially... etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 clear your cache I still see the old one. Even on the Met Office website. What's 144 have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I still see the old one. Even on the Met Office website. What's 144 have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The models have much better access to equations and responses to those equations than I do (I did Meteo until the end of my sophomore year), but if any input into those equations is wrong, and in any particular area where those equations are needed is insufficient for any reason, the potential for chaos increases about exponentially for the amount of time needed to reach a particular solution. It especially expresses itself in a heavily chaotic pattern such as a strong Nina, where numerous northern stream impulses (and resultant weakened southern stream impulses since each has some impact on the other in our energy conserved system) have more frequent and strengthened impulses (each requiring solutions to particular equations to determine their particular strengths and their resultant dampening and strengthening effects on subsequent or preceding waves since waves interfere or strengthen each other based on fluid thermodynamics) than a "normal" year. Chaos multiplies on chaos which is exponentially... etc. Very interesting take. Thank you again for another fantastic post. This is the kind of thing that allows us hobbyists to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 alright the euro is out to hr 36, ill update once closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM ensembles don't agree with the op. Most of them have a coastal storm. http://www.weatherof...ime=00&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 out to hr 78, one thing of big change so far, is at hr 90 on the 12z run the euro was digging the northern stream, almost like an h5 low in the missouri area. The 0z run has backed off on this. There is a low diving down from the northern plains that is quicer...everything else is about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 through hr 90 the high is strong sub 1032, but not as strong as 12z...the h5 depiction at hr 102 has the northern stream already digging down into the south, while the 0z is a little slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 96 has a closed h5 low over nw missouri... has a 1036 high over lake champlain...compared to 12z the northern stream doesnt look as robust, the hgts along the ec are lower so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 0z FIM has a coastal storm. 2m temps look like they are in the 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 108 has the closed h5 low over sw missouri...looks like a sub 1012 low forming in the gulf...1036 high just north of the vt/canada border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 114 has a sub 1012 low over ocala fl, the trof looks to be about neutral going into neg tilt over the miss river...1032 high over portland me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 120 has a sub 1008 low about 100 miles south of myrtle beach...closed off h5 low over northern alabama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 EC DAY 5: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The models have much better access to equations and responses to those equations than I do (I did Meteo until the end of my sophomore year), but if any input into those equations is wrong, and in any particular area where those equations are needed is insufficient for any reason, the potential for chaos increases about exponentially for the amount of time needed to reach a particular solution. It especially expresses itself in a heavily chaotic pattern such as a strong Nina, where numerous northern stream impulses (and resultant weakened southern stream impulses since each has some impact on the other in our energy conserved system) have more frequent and strengthened impulses (each requiring solutions to particular equations to determine their particular strengths and their resultant dampening and strengthening effects on subsequent or preceding waves since waves interfere or strengthen each other based on fluid thermodynamics) than a "normal" year. Chaos multiplies on chaos which is exponentially... etc. Terrific job explaining the inherent uncertainty of weather prediction and the fantasy of the Laplacian... or what forecasters like to call "Initialization errors". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 126 sub 996 low over raliegh, nc...about to get captured by the h5 low... dc was getting mod snow but they prob have changed over..850 line just bout to reach them..phl is in lgt to mod precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 126 sub 996 low over raliegh, nc...about to get captured by the h5 low... dc was getting mod snow but they prob have changed over..850 line just bout to reach them..phl is in lgt to mod precip It sounds like and looks like it's going to come inland.. Maybe a more wet then white solution even for inland areas. Just based on trends in the 500mb chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 132 sub 988 over charlottesville, va.. low is captured...phl or just north of phl is getting hvy snow...850 line just south of phl by 50 miles...nyc starting to get into lgt to mod precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 138 has a sub 988 low over or just south of rich...its probably not snow..but 850s have retreated to the coast...frz line is about 40-50 miles north of cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 DAY 6: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This thing is inland, and it's because of the players on the field. There is now a strong alliance amongest the models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 144 has a sub 992 low over cape may.... frz line in same spot as hr 138 with 850s well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The models have much better access to equations and responses to those equations than I do (I did Meteo until the end of my sophomore year), but if any input into those equations is wrong, and in any particular area where those equations are needed is insufficient for any reason, the potential for chaos increases about exponentially for the amount of time needed to reach a particular solution. It especially expresses itself in a heavily chaotic pattern such as a strong Nina, where numerous northern stream impulses (and resultant weakened southern stream impulses since each has some impact on the other in our energy conserved system) have more frequent and strengthened impulses (each requiring solutions to particular equations to determine their particular strengths and their resultant dampening and strengthening effects on subsequent or preceding waves since waves interfere or strengthen each other based on fluid thermodynamics) than a "normal" year. Chaos multiplies on chaos which is exponentially... etc. True poetry, JM, true poetry. Whoever said that science wasnt an art (heh we all know who that was) never read anything like this. I totally got the image in my mind of what you were posting, and it sounded a great deal like the interference patterns and phasing/out of phase scenarios we deal with in trying to model the wave/particle duality of light in physics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wow, seems starkly similar to the GFS, but another solution tomorrow will probably show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 150 has a sub 988 low about 50 miles south of the tip of long island...mod snow over phl on west and maybe nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This thing is inland, and it's because of the players on the field. There is now a strong alliance amongest the models.... The players that haven't even come close to being ingested by the models. yup it's pretty much a done deal...oh no... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This thing is inland, and it's because of the players on the field. There is now a strong alliance amongest the models.... Not really inland when its off the eastern tip of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 156 the low is in the gulf of maine...lgt precip over phl..lgt to mod oveer nyc as snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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