tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 fwiw the 0z gfs ens in no way shape or form support the op...its has a weak wave moving off hse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 No surprise, the gfs ensembles are much colder and weaker......long time to go on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Honestly, the GFS is probably a worse case scenario. Excellent front end snows, followed by very heavy rain and wind...followed by.............................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I know it is possible but like you said the GFS suddenly pops a storm after not having one and decides to give NYC after having single digits-teens for lows just hours prior a Flood of rain. To me that is beyond ludicrous. Hey anything is possible though. I will stick with the EURO for the time being in this time range. See 1/17/94 and the January 1999 event...both NYC was in the single numbers and 50 within 12 hours.....the 94 event it was 12 degrees at 1am and 32 by 9am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 fwiw the 0z gfs ens in no way shape or form support the op...its has a weak wave moving off hse Ya beat me to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 fwiw the 0z gfs ens in no way shape or form support the op...its has a weak wave moving off hse Goes OTS, missing everyone? Definitely a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I highly doubt this would be a driving rainstorm even if it's not all snow...could be similar to the event earlier in the week with the icing potential...while the high moves out another one moves in and the low takes a good track so there will be plenty of low level cold air imo, even down to I-95 but especially just to the N&W. Would expect the 32f line to be a bit further S/E than what the GFS currently depicts if the H5 setup is correct (highly unlikely) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Goes OTS, missing everyone? Definitely a long way to go. looking at the spaghetti charts, def. some amped up members but most of them are east of the OP. There appears to be a few that support the OP but the spread really escalates from 138-150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 All I mean is I've been burnt by that thinking before. Like oh its way too cold to rain its like 12 degrees. no way its going to change to rain. Here's a perfect example from Jan'94, -2 for a morning low on the 27th, rain and 55 on the 28th 27 32 -2 15 0.08 28 55 17 36 1.72 I know it is possible but like you said the GFS suddenly pops a storm after not having one and decides to give NYC after having single digits-teens for lows just hours prior a Flood of rain. To me that is beyond ludicrous. Hey anything is possible though. That said, I will stick with the EURO for the time being in this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 in just looking at all the members or the ones sv plots, it looks like 2 or 3 have inland/hugger track, though its hard to see with all the lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 See 1/17/94 and the January 1999 event...both NYC was in the single numbers and 50 within 12 hours.....the 94 event it was 12 degrees at 1am and 32 by 9am. Like I said this is not impossible and the examples folks have mentioned I lived through so I know it can happen but certainly with no run to run consistency in any, way, shape or form on the GFS and utter disagreement by the ensembles, at this point and this far out, I will consider this outcome as depicted a possibility but quite unlikely at this point. Anyone believing this depiction to be what occurs is really fooling themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 fwiw the 0z gfs ens in no way shape or form support the op...its has a weak wave moving off hse Good, I think we'd rather see that at this point. We definitely don't want a solution as amped as the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 CMC has come in pretty amped up through 120 hours tonight as well. 144 is not out but it at 120 the HP is over the NE is starting to slip away as H5 really digs over the gulf states and surface low is primed to come up in a gfs like fashion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Good, I think we'd rather see that at this point. We definitely don't want a solution as amped as the OP run. why can't we have a high in better position and the very amped solution as one? I would thnk things could trend in that direction depending on timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ggem hr 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I highly doubt this would be a driving rainstorm even if it's not all snow...could be similar to the event earlier in the week with the icing potential...while the high moves out another one moves in and the low takes a good track so there will be plenty of low level cold air imo, even down to I-95 but especially just to the N&W. Would expect the 32f line to be a bit further S/E than what the GFS currently depicts if the H5 setup is correct (highly unlikely) geez all you have to do is look at the upper plains to know that the GFS is going to be wrong....a) how is that not a kicker and keeping the first storm moving along and 2) why are there two strong vorts so close together and not phased as one...NO WAY IT HAPPENS LIKE THIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 cmc is slowe than gfs, more like the ukie but not as slow as the ukie. Will be interesting to see if this second HP showing up can have an effect. Of course, this is an eternity away, so much can and will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 CMC has come in pretty amped up through 120 hours tonight as well. 144 is not out but it at 120 the HP is over the NE is starting to slip away as H5 really digs over the gulf states and surface low is primed to come up in a gfs like fashion yeah, not what I wanted to see but we are still a long way out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 FWIW this may be the first time all season that we've gotten general agreement from all the models that there will be a signifianct storm taking place in the 4-6 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 heres hr 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 that 144 maps looks like 12/92 on roids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM is a big rainstorm for a lot of areas. 850's are near Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM is a big rainstorm for a lot of areas. 850's are near Buffalo Good thing the 96-144 hour GGEM is almost never right. See its forecast at that time period for tonight's imminent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 seasonal pattern would argue against this type of solution but who knows.....night all, no strength to wait for the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This is one you don't get to write often... 00Z GGEM = Congrats AA and JetBlue 757s! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 As Tornadojay and others have said, this is a very high error-prone pattern until the individual players are properly sampled. It's almost impossible to latch onto a solution until everything is properly sampled by the models and data. Right now, since the energies and vorts responsible are over the open Pacific, expect rapid shifts and outcomes. Also, remember that tiny initialization shifts at hr0 over a data sparse area in the Pacific for an event forecast 6 days out have tremendous implications given interference and shifts given any possible (imagine that) initialization errors for that (and multiple "that" to make this storm happen) implication in the future to create any possible... ehh, I think you get the point. Bottom line is, if our 12/26 massive blizzard was forecast by every model to be an east whiff 60 hrs out can bust so badly, it's almost impossible to trust any model's depiction of this 144hr storm and 500mb chart at this timeframe. Right now, look at the Quebec high and its willingness to escape east or stick in place, although that's subject to significant error based on a vort's placement over the Baffin Islands and a responding NPV's response over Greenland and etc, etc, etc...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 why can't we have a high in better position and the very amped solution as one? I would thnk things could trend in that direction depending on timing. It seems that if we have an amped solution its going to take longer to get here and thus give the high time to slide off the coast as the trough digs..not exactly sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 As Tornadojay and others have said, this is a very high error-prone pattern until the individual players are properly sampled. It's almost impossible to latch onto a solution until everything is properly sampled by the models and data. Right now, since the energies and vorts responsible are over the open Pacific, expect rapid shifts and outcomes. Also, remember that tiny initialization shifts at hr0 over a data sparse area in the Pacific for an event forecast 6 days out have tremendous implications given interference and shifts given any possible (imagine that) initialization errors for that (and multiple "that" to make this storm happen) implication in the future to create any possible... ehh, I think you get the point. Bottom line is, if our 12/26 massive blizzard was forecast by every model to be an east whiff 60 hrs out can bust so badly, it's almost impossible to trust any model's depiction of this 144hr storm and 500mb chart at this timeframe. Right now, look at the Quebec high and its willingness to escape east or stick in place, although that's subject to significant error based on a vort's placement over the Baffin Islands and a responding NPV's response over Greenland and etc, etc, etc...... Fantastic post. One of the best I have read in years. To believe any solution depicted by these models at this time is folly and pretty much a waste of time and energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 As Tornadojay and others have said, this is a very high error-prone pattern until the individual players are properly sampled. It's almost impossible to latch onto a solution until everything is properly sampled by the models and data. Right now, since the energies and vorts responsible are over the open Pacific, expect rapid shifts and outcomes. Also, remember that tiny initialization shifts at hr0 over a data sparse area in the Pacific for an event forecast 6 days out have tremendous implications given interference and shifts given any possible (imagine that) initialization errors for that (and multiple "that" to make this storm happen) implication in the future to create any possible... ehh, I think you get the point. Bottom line is, if our 12/26 massive blizzard was forecast by every model to be an east whiff 60 hrs out can bust so badly, it's almost impossible to trust any model's depiction of this 144hr storm and 500mb chart at this timeframe. Right now, look at the Quebec high and its willingness to escape east or stick in place, although that's subject to significant error based on a vort's placement over the Baffin Islands and a responding NPV's response over Greenland and etc, etc, etc...... Wow, great post. Should be pinned to each page of this thread if that was somehow possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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