Animal Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 looks to be a decent rainstorm on this run for many folks...only through hr 148 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Note..I am speaking about Northwest NJ...not New York City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 for Philly crew the far NW burbs are the ones that get crushed Reading quakertown and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 for Philly crew the far NW burbs are the ones that get crushed Reading quakertown and north you get rain too. All the way back to hagerstown and going to around Blue Mountain edit hr 150 dynamics crash back and switch over to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This looks very December 1992ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS and EURO have the same players ont he field as far as s/w go.. The euro closes off the OH valley, VA h5 low and keeps the southern wave open and weaker.... The GFS wants to close off the southern wave and produce from there.... WHAT A BATTLE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 No, north of Philly around Allentown-Reading looks pretty good this run. It might be too amped up, though, meaning more snow for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 not to be a weenie, but if that high was in a more ideal spot, this run verbatim would be an epic blizzard for all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 not to be a weenie, but if that high was in a more ideal spot, this run verbatim would be an epic blizzard for all? It would be a blizzard as well if the high was not there...the high being there in a bad place is the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 All this needs is a slight tap 20 miles east to put the big cities in the jp zone once again. As of right now, looks like NYC is in danger of being dry slotted. I dont recall ever seeing such a wrapped up non-tropical cyclone before on the GFS. System looks tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It would be a blizzard as well if the high was not there...the high being there in a bad place is the problem. damn lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The GFS gives me 4 days to clear the gutters and run off areas for the current 3" glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This looks very December 1992ish http://www.hurricanes-blizzards-noreasters.com/1992noreaster.html ????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 NOGAPS about to show another bomb, probably hugging the coast again, at least that's what it looks like through 108 based on the troughing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 not to be a weenie, but if that high was in a more ideal spot, this run verbatim would be an epic blizzard for all? yeah due to the fact that there is 1.5 and 2" qpf amounts for DC up thru all of SE PA and up to NYC I'd say yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 here is UKIE, its slower than GFS and has the primary over the south but look at the new HP building in yet another solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yeah due to the fact that there is 1.5 and 2" qpf amounts for DC up thru all of SE PA and up to NYC I'd say yeah No doubt about it but I really find it absurd to believe the GFS solution at this point (what is it like 7 days out. lol). We are about to enter the coldest days of the winter thus far and when this storm comes around it is just going to scour that out and give NYC a Noah's Ark rainstorm? Sorry I find that far fetched. Too far out to believe the GFS hook, line and sinker at this point. Obviously it is all about timing, storm structure, downstream setups (i.e High Pressure positioning and whatever else), etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 here is UKIE, its slower than GFS and has the primary over the south but look at the new HP building in yet another solution the GFS also has that high in Central Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 the GFS also has that high in Central Canada at 144 hours the gfs has a bomb sitting off the delmarva, its a completely different solution. Its much slower, so that high could actually build in its actually like the DGEX in some way as the dgex has a storm coming up at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 DT basically said on his FB page the same thing I have been all week...weak low and everyone is good other than maybe coastal regions in the southern MA...strong low its over for everyone except higher terrain inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I've seen many times when we are in an arctic blast and 2 days later its 50 and raining so it is possible. Considering the fact however that the GFS hasn't shown anything resembling a storm it would be ludicrous to think this is the correct solution No doubt about it but I really find it absurd to believe the GFS solution at this point (what is it like 7 days out. lol). We are about to enter the coldest days of the winter thus far and when this storm comes around it is just going to scour that out and give NYC a Noah's Ark rainstorm? Sorry I find that far fetched. Too far out to believe the GFS hook, line and sinker at this point. Obviously it is all about timing, storm structure, downstream setups (i.e High Pressure positioning and whatever else), etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 lol, seriously, worrying about a dry slot seven days out? All this needs is a slight tap 20 miles east to put the big cities in the jp zone once again. As of right now, looks like NYC is in danger of being dry slotted. I dont recall ever seeing such a wrapped up non-tropical cyclone before on the GFS. System looks tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 at 144 hours the gfs has a bomb sitting off the delmarva, its a completely different solution. Its much slower, so that high could actually build in its actually like the DGEX in some way as the dgex has a storm coming up at 180 semantics...its there, it is there at 126hrs. more importantly, as everyone is looking at the snow/rain that is on the East Coast, what is with that second vortmax just behind the lead vort over eastern kansas at 138hrs (it is there before and after)...obviously what the GFS spit out here is chewed gum...it CAN NOT be right...i'll bet anyone that the h5 map will NOT look like that 120 hrs from now, which would lead to a potentially vastly different solution once corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 DT basically said on his FB page the same thing I have been all week...weak low and everyone is good other than maybe coastal regions in the southern MA...strong low its over for everyone except higher terrain inland. so we should be rooting for a small amount of snow instead of a boat load of rain then?? (this is not intended with any sarcasm at all) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 NOGAPS is way inland..runs right up the apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That doesn't mean that at all. If you have a strong high/weak low you can get a good overrunning situation like Feb '03, a long duration heavy snowfall for a large area. so we should be rooting for a small amount of snow instead of a boat load of rain then?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 so we should be rooting for a small amount of snow instead of a boat load of rain then?? You'll get a ton of snow in this setup with that high there because of the overrunning...a 100mb low would produce a very big snow event here while a 985mb low is all rain....the 00Z GFS badly undestimates the front end snows still...places like NYC and DC would probably see alot of snow before the rain changeover based on the 00Z GFS but the model just is unable to see it this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It's a nice rainstorm though. Maybe if it slows down, high pressure can build in and keep us colder but who knows at this point. This could be the snow pack killer, but we'll probably see more snow afterward even if we do get a driving rainstorm. I'm already happy with the snowfall I've received, any more is bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That doesn't mean that at all. If you have a strong high/weak low you can get a good overrunning situation like Feb '03, a long duration heavy snowfall for a large area. You'll get a ton of snow in this setup with that high there because of the overrunning...a 100mb low would produce a very big snow event here while a 985mb low is all rain....the 00Z GFS badly undestimates the front end snows still...places like NYC and DC would probably see alot of snow before the rain changeover based on the 00Z GFS but the model just is unable to see it this far out. ok..........i didnt even think of that..........thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I've seen many times when we are in an arctic blast and 2 days later its 50 and raining so it is possible. Considering the fact however that the GFS hasn't shown anything resembling a storm it would be ludicrous to think this is the correct solution I know it is possible but like you said the GFS suddenly pops a storm after not having one and decides to give NYC after having single digits-teens for lows just hours prior a Flood of rain. To me that is beyond ludicrous. Hey anything is possible though. That said, I will stick with the EURO for the time being in this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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