Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It may also be too weak and progressive with the SE Coast and eventual 50/50 low as well when it develops in 3 days. FWIW it's ensemble mean is weaker and farther E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Haven't had a chance to read every post in the thread so I apologize if this has already been touched on, but the NOGAPS is likely showing it's progressive bias not necessarily irt to the actual surface low, but probably progressing the HP out to quickly thus allowing the system to trudge North sooner thus the western position of the actual surface low. I was touching on that exact thing earlier in the thread. Im glad im not alone in my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 1004 low just south of the benchmark at 156. Thank you sir. Good to see it not cutting in like the nogaps suggested or even some older cmc runs suggested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 FWIW it's ensemble mean is weaker and farther E the mean is very nice right now for this range. Nothing wrong with it. We don't want a 980 bomb in this setup unless you want mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Euro ensemble mean is pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Euro ensemble mean is pretty nice. exactly what you want to see when the Euro is on its own. That HP sliding off the coast scares me but if its really as cold as its progged to be, as long as the surface reflection stays weak we should be ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The 18z GFS and 12z Euro are worlds apart even as soon as 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 18z DGEX. Oh how I wish I could see hours 198-210... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 18z GFS looks like it would be trending towards a more amplified solution based on 500 mb difference with 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 lol at DGEX and an even bigger LOL at the 18z nogaps which is still very amplified and has a nice rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 18z DGEX. Oh how I wish I could see hours 198-210... Isn't that high a little too far east? Still, the DGEX is certainly honking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 18 Z NOGAPS @ 120 its out to 144 now and is a driving rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 its out to 144 now and is a driving rainstorm Huge model differences. Everything from OTS to good storm to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The GFS seems wacky at H5. For some reason throughout the progression of the runs it keeps all the shortwaves distinct and separate from one another. You would think a phase or consolidation of the energy would occur based on the setup of h5, like what the euro shows. On a positive note I love the trends regarding the blocking upstream, models seem to keep intensifying and making this feature more pronounced which will have several impacts. One it will prevent the HP from slipping out to sea and you would think it would force the northern stream energy/shortwave down into the base of the trough and phase with the sw as it continues its progression east. The increased ridging or positive PNA out west would also aid in this process. One thing I find hard to believe is that the sw energy will lag especially with the fast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah i realize that ..but you do not want to see this model this far to the west...it should be more SE with its low pressure area ...due to its bias...however its not...so chances are this is going to be a very amplified system... It's one signal, but doesn't have much support right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The GFS has all of these shortwaves just flying around and doesn't really do anything with them. The euro consolidates them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The GFS seems wacky at H5. For some reason throughout the progression of the runs it keeps all the shortwaves distinct and separate from one another. You would think a phase or consolidation of the energy would occur based on the setup of h5, like what the euro shows. On a positive note I love the trends regarding the blocking upstream, models seem to keep intensifying and making this feature more pronounced which will have several impacts. One it will prevent the HP from slipping out to sea and you would think it would force the northern stream energy/shortwave down into the base of the trough and phase with the sw as it continues its progression east. The increased ridging or positive PNA out west would also aid in this process. One thing I find hard to believe is that the sw energy will lag especially with the fast flow. Good post and analysis, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I don't know if this was brought up or not and apologize if it was, but there was a pacific dropsonde mission that made it into the 12z GFS run. Other modeling centers could have ingested that information if they wanted it, don't know if they did or not. Either way, there are so many different stream short waves with the upcoming system I doubt much model resolution before Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I don't know if this was brought up or not and apologize if it was, but there was a pacific dropsonde mission that made it into the 12z GFS run. Other modeling centers could have ingested that information if they wanted it, don't know if they did or not. Either way, there are so many different stream short waves with the upcoming system I doubt much model resolution before Sunday. Thanks for the info, Tony. I'd forgot to check that. They'll be flying another mission for the 12z runs tomorrow as well. FWIW, at least for tropical sonde missions, the ECMWF and UKMET also ingest the sonde data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Thanks for the info, Tony. I'd forgot to check that. They'll be flying another mission for the 12z runs tomorrow as well. FWIW, at least for tropical sonde missions, the ECMWF and UKMET also ingest the sonde data. The GFS may go its own way by itself because of its model physics. I just saw the GEFS plumes for Philly, what a mess. If the 00z run changes and the 12z run then changes back or again, I guess those sondes are having some effect. This is a project to try to get the most bang for the buck in the medium range. It started this month in the Pacific. As far as I know those mission messages are going to be carried on the admnfd(s) when they do them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I am simply applying its bias....it should be further to the south east in this scenario with its progressive nature..that is the bias. I have seen pro mets from John (typhoon tip) to snowgoose as well as other adhere this same thing in the past.... If this model is NW of other models it generally flags the guidance that is too far to the east.... This is not something i have made up ...this is something that has been a generally accepted concept.... And again ..I will give a model credit when credit is due... I remember quite well a post from even earthlight not that long ago ...that stated the ECM bowed to the NOGAPS... Its a very valuable tool when used properly.... Time will tell ... It's pointless to argue about this at this timerange though you do have a point. What Im liking is the synoptic resemblance to PD2 that this has. Not fooling myself into thinking we get that much snow, but even half that amount would be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The GFS may go its own way by itself because of its model physics. I just saw the GEFS plumes for Philly, what a mess. If the 00z run changes and the 12z run then changes back or again, I guess those sondes are having some effect. This is a project to try to get the most bang for the buck in the medium range. It started this month in the Pacific. As far as I know those mission messages are going to be carried on the admnfd(s) when they do them. Im thinking a middle of the line compromise solution is what will verify. That is something I've seen happen quite a bit this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The GFS may go its own way by itself because of its model physics. I just saw the GEFS plumes for Philly, what a mess. If the 00z run changes and the 12z run then changes back or again, I guess those sondes are having some effect. This is a project to try to get the most bang for the buck in the medium range. It started this month in the Pacific. As far as I know those mission messages are going to be carried on the admnfd(s) when they do them. Not much of a signal there beyond "there will be a trough." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I moved the NOGAPS discussion to its own thread: Feel free to continue discussing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 jma is an apps runner and before anyone says its proprietary to sv its free on the internet just google JMA 12Z am19psu EDIT: Sorry, can't post SV graphics here. Here is the 144 from Earl Barker, which is allowed. am19psu EDIT2: I guess that particular image is free. Restored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 jma is an apps runner and before anyone says its proprietary to sv its free on the internet just google JMA 12Z Fair use FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 jma is an apps runner and before anyone says its proprietary to sv its free on the internet just google JMA 12Z am19psu EDIT: Sorry, can't post SV graphics here. Here is the 144 from Earl Barker, which is allowed. That's an Apps runner? With a SLP off the SE Coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That's an Apps runner? With a SLP off the SE Coast? Look at the position of the surface high. It moves due north from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Look at the position of the surface high. It moves due north from there. After I posted I realized the HP was moving out. Still, I expected to see zero secondary when referencing a true Apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ampsu19, that storm vista map is free. Its available on the internet via google, not sure why you removed it. Doesnt require a password or subscription, its a free model site. And I posted the 168 hour map, not the 144 which is an inland runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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