Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 168 southern stream finally starting to move at a decent pace over Ala/Miss, still neutral tilt and northern stream energy is digging in on the backside over the central plains whatever happens from this looks like it'll miss to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS is in a world of its own. I suspect that its poor handeling of the current system is having downstream effects. It's much slower/weaker/supressed with the southern stream wave near the SE coast days 3-4 than the NAM has been showing consistenly for the past several runs. We need this low to intensify and move NE in order to get our nice 50/50 low setup. Looks like your typical 4-6 day run where the GFS manages to basically loose the storm all together only to find it in the 2-4 day time range all over again. Such poor run to run consistency this season, and this one can't be blamed on the lack of good sampeling of the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 180 storm is forming off the SC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 189 surface low is about 50 miles east of outer banks and continuing NE and missing phase/capture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 pathetic to be quite honest, and the southern stream basically sits and waits for the northern stream to dive down, which it never really does. With all that energy diving down you would think it phases over the gulf. This is not our system anyway. We want the storm in the 5-7 day time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The GFS has some major cold again in fantasy time range... -24 850 mb isotherm through much of the state of Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Very well defined northern and southern stream on the gfs with the clippers associated with the northern stream and a gulf low trying to form in the southern stream. The problem is that they can't merge until we get to around Day 8 but even by then, they don't phase in time and we get a scraping at best. All in all, very different solution from the Euro/GGEM and other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GGEM agrees with GFS by 120 to have the southern stream dig into N. Mexico and sit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 ukmet has lost the storm as well, sw goes into la la land and rots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GGEM agrees with GFS by 120 to have the southern stream dig into N. Mexico and sit erh..C Mexico...that thing digs like crazy to the point where the base of the trough is off the map grid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Based on the gfs, ggem, and ukmet, i could see a delayed but not denied scenario. Having the first wave crap out actually allows another strong high to build in and then the vort over mexico eject with northern stream energy for a beautiful setup. Will be interesting to see how this unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Not suprising considering how much trouble the models are having even in the short term resolving smaller scale issues. Once they decide what to do with that southern stream energy off the SE days 3-4 things will probably begin to become clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm a bit surprised that Upton is referring to last night's Euro as a big flood potential.. I mean.. to me, temps don't look all that bad.. It looks like the 850 zero line and 2M zero line are within 30 miles or so of NYC. They make it out to sound like it's extremely warm. Meanwhile our local mets are talking about blizzard potential for Tuesday and Wednesday -- lol guidance is all over the place yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well things are going to be muddled in this time range. I'm more excited about February with the potential return of the blocking along with the PNA, maybe another MECS/HECS? As long we don't see a rain storm, then I'll be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 IMO, it's too early to be talking about the amount of qpf, much less p-types for next week's possible event. I suspect that the 1/20 0z Euro is a western/warm outlier. The 1/20 12z GFS is probably an outlier to the opposite extreme. The ensembles have generally been somewhere between those two camps so to speak. I suspect a colder solution than the Euro and probably more significant one than the operational 12z GFS is more likely than either of the solutions on the operational guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 IMO, it's too early to be talking about the amount of qpf, much less p-types for next week's possible event. I suspect that the 1/20 0z Euro is a western/warm outlier. The 1/20 12z GFS is probably an outlier to the opposite extreme. The ensembles have generally been somewhere between those two camps so to speak. I suspect a colder solution than the Euro and probably more significant one than the operational 12z GFS is more likely than either of the solutions on the operational guidance. Words of wisdom once again, Don-- this seems to be true in most winters, but particularly this one-- a compromise of the different solutions is the most likely one. I havent seen any one model consistently outperform any other this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The GFS has some major cold again in fantasy time range... -24 850 mb isotherm through much of the state of Virginia. lol it seens that it always shows major cold then as it gets closer it never materializes maybe this time it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 lol it seens that it always shows major cold then as it gets closer it never materializes maybe this time it will. But it is materializing, haven't you checked this weekend's temperatures highs and lows. A lot of places are going to get near or below zero for lows and only teens to low 20s for highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 But it is materializing, haven't you checked this weekend's temperatures highs and lows. A lot of places are going to get near or below zero for lows and only teens to low 20s for highs. Well according to NWS temps for this area are supposed to be in upper 20's for highs and around 12-14 for lows I don't consider that a real artic blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks like the Euro is not holding energy back in the SW this time. Kicking it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 precip streaming up from the Gulf at 96 hrs. I think it will phase this time from the looks of it. Precip streaming north up to Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks like the Euro is not holding energy back in the SW this time. Kicking it out. LOL--isnt that its bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 that high is such a good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Definitely starting to get a phase 102 hrs. Precip really streaming north to Chicago. 1036 High centered over NY state. Zero 850 line south of Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 High retreating north, not going out to sea. This is looking good. Zero 850 line up to Chapel Hill, NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Low starting to redevelop off the SC coast at 114 hrs. light precip up to Philly. 0 850 line at NC, VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 low popping off of chareston at 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 at 120 hrs. Low trying to develop near Hatteras. Moderate Precip up to Dover, DE, zero 850 touching the southern tip of DelMarv, surface freezing line up to Cape May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 1036 high centered on wester ME border with Canada at 120 still a great spot just as precip breaking out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 at 126 hrs weak low near hatteras, moderate pricp to NYC, Zero 850 to the DelMarva, surface freezing line runs along the Jersey shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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