IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z GFS shows major potential in 6-8 day range. Discuss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS solution seems rather convoluted. It strengthens rather late, but throws moisture back to Philly and CNJ. Meanwhile, most other models are indicating an inland track with decent over-running potential, a la PDII, although that wouldn't be a true Miller A. Good idea splitting discussion here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z NOGAPS looks very much similar to the 12z GFS as far as low placement and hanging back the precip into NJ. On 1/19/2011 at 4:44 PM, Noreaster85 said: 12z GFS shows major potential in 6-8 day range. Discuss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean. Impressive for this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 always a good sign when the nocraps shows something brewing, here is the 12z ukmet at 144 closed h5 in the midwest and surface low over the south. Also note the 50./50 low and the NAO going negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 4:52 PM, Thunder Road said: GFS solution seems rather convoluted. It strengthens rather late, but throws moisture back to Philly and CNJ. Meanwhile, most other models are indicating an inland track with decent over-running potential, a la PDII, although that wouldn't be a true Miller A. Good idea splitting discussion here though. With the lack of a -NAO, one thing that we probably wont get is a suppressed solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I agree, the NOGAPS also showed the previous snowstorm early-- a warning sign with a model that usually has an OTS bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 The problem with the GFS for our area is that it holds back the energy in the sourthern stream too long in the southwest. The northern stream then looks like it outruns the southern stream and low pressure never gets a chance to fully organize in time to produce a miller A. This reminds me of the time period leading up to the boxing day event although i realize the synoptic differences.. Strong PNA riding looks to establish itself on the GFS and Euro in the 8-10 day time frame and this event may end up getting pushed back two or three days and turning into a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well somethings gonna give with the PNA giving us an amplified eastern trough. I just hope all of the pieces can connect and not be all over the place. I also hope the cold can hang on, it's going to be tough without true blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 4:58 PM, A-L-E-X said: With the lack of a -NAO, one thing that we probably wont get is a suppressed solution. we do have an east based NAO building in with blocking back towards the far north atlantic. Normally east based would mean suppression but I like the PAC setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:00 PM, jetski09 said: Well somethings gonna give with the PNA giving us an amplified eastern trough. I just hope all of the pieces can connect and not be all over the place. I also hope the cold can hang on, it's going to be tough without true blocking. NAO is going negative. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm quite interested to see if HM has any comments on this one. I remember him writing a thread about why the last week of December was in trouble. Sounds like we might be moving back into a favorable setup when it becomes more of a matter of when and not if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 for what it's worth, I'm not a huge fan of this threat at the moment. Any model run that doesn't suppress this system brings it up the coast as the cold high is drifting offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:26 PM, NJwinter23 said: for what it's worth, I'm not a huge fan of this threat at the moment. Any model run that doesn't suppress this system brings it up the coast as the cold high is drifting offshore. I take it youre not too fond of the east based - NAO building, although the +PNA might alleviate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 P10 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 How does the euro look for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 6:13 PM, Midlo Snow Maker said: sc nc coast gets a little snow at hr 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 6:07 PM, Midlo Snow Maker said: hr 66 trough not as deep more positive, northern branch not digging in so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 6:17 PM, Midlo Snow Maker said: hr 102 northern s/w much faster this run and the south west s/w is digging deeper in the south west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The 12Z GEM has totally lost the event, its keying in on different disturbances and now has the bowling ball lakes low from day 4-6 the GFS HAD been showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 6:18 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The 12Z GEM has totally lost the event, its keying in on different disturbances and now has the bowling ball lakes low from day 4-6 the GFS HAD been showing It gets a storm going but about 12-18 hours later in the 180 hour timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 6:20 PM, Midlo Snow Maker said: hr 144 1004 low in ND. closed 500 low s/w in texas is digging a little deeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 6:20 PM, algreek3 said: It gets a storm going but about 12-18 hours later in the 180 hour timeframe. Yeah, instead of blowing up the disturbance into the southern Plains at 108-120 hours it keys in on something much later...that won't work as we need an early event before the high departs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Is the Euro holding the energy back in the SW like the 12z GFS showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 So is this threat off of the progs now and unlikely to occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 6:23 PM, Midlo Snow Maker said: hr 120 close 500 low ND/minn texas S/W nearing neutral 1038 hi over NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 6:24 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: So is this threat off of the progs now and unlikely to occur? ? No one said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 hr 138 on the 12z euro....low pressure over the gulf....preciep all the way up to PA....mod snow in VA...light in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 6:23 PM, Noreaster85 said: Is the Euro holding the energy back in the SW like the 12z GFS showed? I only see the Euro at 96 hours, but its more progressive than the GFS...the disturbance is in NM already and not AZ and NW NM as the GFS had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 6:24 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: So is this threat off of the progs now and unlikely to occur? When did anyone say that Ralph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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