ski MRG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Oh its bad. Its like reading a transcript of a Jerry Springer episode LOL, it really is like a Jerry Springer show. It's so stupid and you feel like a moron for wasting your time but yet it's so entertaining. I have a new favorite thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The GFS is simply faster with the evolution of the storm and as a result the high is still there....I posted in the NYC thread I think the verdict on this storm commences within the next 2 runs of the GFS (00 or 12 runs, 06 excluded) since the GFS generally becomes way more believable inside 96 hours...if the other models are correct to an extent on the slower evolution we will likely see the GFS lose the storm on the 00 run tonight or 12 tomorrow AM since it would jump into the 120+ period...remember the GFS is quite weak in that range and in recent years when the GFS has had a timing adjustment to a system it often loses it for a run or two as opposed to just pushing it later....so my feeling is as you watch the GFS roll in tonight hold you breath as it reaches taus 72-84 and hope you start seeing something developing in the Gulf...if you start seeing a major change thats bad news for the coastal Plain people. seems the speed on the GFS is directly tied to not digging the energy nearly as far south and/or west. all the other globals head for the GOM or thereabouts (the 12z ec runs for the heart of texas before rounding east)...the GFS essentially runs through the mid-mississippi river valley and then through the OV to the MA. result is a much quicker evolution. i'm not sure i want to see the GFS showing anything in the GOM. LOL. i want MA cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 My bar for up here is when a storm is likely to be 12+...that is worth pissing people off and losing money. If it is a 10 incher I find it fun to come home to and oddly I don't miss it so much. Missing a 12+ is deep emotional pain that I dont' wish to subject myself to. My partner's birthday is late Feb. He wanted to go to New Orleans or Miami, but spring break meant hotels were full and airfares expensive, so he switched to Vermont! Phew.... Good that you are set thru 3/4...lots gonna happen between now and then. Beautiful walk in the thick veil this morning from Coolidge down to Manchester Rd. 2 inch an hour for a bit and I was out in it. Great fun up here in the countryside but something special about heavy snow in an urban area. When are you buying your far interior or north country camp? We know. We know.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 LOL, it really is like a Jerry Springer show. It's so stupid and you feel like a moron for wasting your time but yet it's so entertaining. I have a new favorite thread. point me in the right direction sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm having a hard time buying into the inside runner and warm solution for a lot of us. It is going to be below zero the days leading up to the event. The models have the storm occludes to our south. And another thing that i really like is that the NAO will be trending towards positive after tanking into the negative. Which should lead towards a more eastern solution and colder solution. But what we do have to worry about are a lot of dry slot issues. So here's to the storm not closing off far to the south and doing so further north. I have a 22" snowpack here and I don't know where another couple of feet would go but I would love to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 seems the speed on the GFS is directly tied to not digging the energy nearly as far south and/or west. all the other globals head for the GOM or thereabouts (the 12z ec runs for the heart of texas before rounding east)...the GFS essentially runs through the mid-mississippi river valley and then through the OV to the MA. result is a much quicker evolution. i'm not sure i want to see the GFS showing anything in the GOM. LOL. i want MA cyclogenesis. the further south/deeper it digs , will allow im estimating for higher heights to be pumped up along the east coast via warm air advection out of the gulf, and as a result, a greater chance to cut inland or bring ptype concerns. however, at this time i think the newer trend of a rebuilding, stronger neg NAO would allow this storm to be predomaintely frozen in new england even if the storm digs more now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larvay Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Y'all can thank me for the plethora of snow; I pulled out of SNE on 1/10. FTL. I had to deal with 60F and blinding sun today in El Paso. I guess it's nice to shed the long-johns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 We know. We know.lol oh I'm not THAT lucky Pete....but almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm having a hard time buying into the inside runner and warm solution for a lot of us. It is going to be below zero the days leading up to the event. The models have the storm occludes to our south. And another thing that i really like is that the NAO will be trending towards positive after tanking into the negative. Which should lead towards a more eastern solution and colder solution. But what we do have to worry about are a lot of dry slot issues. So here's to the storm not closing off far to the south and doing so further north. I have a 22" snowpack here and I don't know where another couple of feet would go but I would love to see it. I thought it was going negative as the storm hits. the problem would not be the antecedent cold....the problem would be the position of the high sliding off the coast. That is what caused the problems earlier this week despite fantastic antecedent cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm having a hard time buying into the inside runner and warm solution for a lot of us. It is going to be below zero the days leading up to the event. The models have the storm occludes to our south. And another thing that i really like is that the NAO will be trending towards positive after tanking into the negative. Which should lead towards a more eastern solution and colder solution. But what we do have to worry about are a lot of dry slot issues. So here's to the storm not closing off far to the south and doing so further north. I have a 22" snowpack here and I don't know where another couple of feet would go but I would love to see it. I was kinda of surprised when I saw so many putting stock into the warm solution, Even the TWC was talking about it. I am just not sold on that yet, bring on the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 point me in the right direction sir PSUHOFFMAN LEGACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Y'all can thank me for the plethora of snow; I pulled out of SNE on 1/10. FTL. I had to deal with 60F and blinding sun today in El Paso. I guess it's nice to shed the long-johns. LARS!! Great to hear from you!!! Stay out of town until May 15th!!lol ps. A friend of mine took a 19lb Salmon at Laurel Lake last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 PSUHOFFMAN LEGACY gotcha thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 oh I'm not THAT lucky Pete....but almost. lol. C'mon man, this is a weather forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Pete, I just go offered a day of work in Anchorage March 1... My luck there will be a huge alaska ridge and an anomalously deep east coast trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Warm solution will not be allowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Allan has added GFS Ensm. Snowfall maps to his page. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/Members.html Right on the bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lol. C'mon man, this is a weather forum. Ironically I talk less about weenies than many of the "straight" guys on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Pete, I just go offered a day of work in Anchorage March 1... My luck there will be a huge alaska ridge and an anomalously deep east coast trough. Go. Beautiful even if there isn't snow but I promise you there will be. Need help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ironically I talk less about weenies than many of the "straight" guys on here. I believe this quote should appear on someone's signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Allan has added GFS Ensm. Snowfall maps to his page. http://raleighwx.ame...ls/Members.html Right on the bottom This was the 12z OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larvay Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 LARS!! Great to hear from you!!! Stay out of town until May 15th!!lol ps. A friend of mine took a 19lb Salmon at Laurel Lake last weekend. Nice call on the "Big, big winter". Oh, yeah, that's always your call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Allan has added GFS Ensm. Snowfall maps to his page. http://raleighwx.ame...ls/Members.html Right on the bottom That's cool Bob, thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Go. Beautiful even if there isn't snow but I promise you there will be. Need help? Well I can't pay you but I can think of something for you to do. I'm a tremendously important person and I usually travel with an entourage. One of my colleagues got to do 2 days of work on the North Slope last winter! wind chill was -65. I'm excited about seeing Alaska in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Nice call on the "Big, big winter". Oh, yeah, that's always your call. BWIOCoTFTW get with the program Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well I can't pay you but I can think of something for you to do. I'm a tremendously important person and I usually travel with an entourage. One of my colleagues got to do 2 days of work on the North Slope last winter! wind chill was -65. I'm excited about seeing Alaska in the winter. Oh, damn, I'm busy that day. I've traveled around a bit and Alaska is the most impressive place I've ever been. What do they need interior decorators on the North slope for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Nice call on the "Big, big winter". Oh, yeah, that's always your call. lol, shhhh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This was the 12z OP. Hmm.. wonder how much "accumulatoin" for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Oh, damn, I'm busy that day. I've traveled around a bit and Alaska is the most impressive place I've ever been. What do they need interior decorators on the North slope for? Don't be afraid...that what doesn't kill you makes you stronger.... Lol trust me I'd never be hired to decorate anything. My role would be to make those big burly men work together in harmony. I should bring Kevin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Hey so is BDL's month-to-date total (43.0") accurate? Is so, that puts them exactly 0.1" away from the snowiest January on record (Jan 1996 -- 43.1"), and 2.3" away from the snowiest month on record (Dec 1945 -- 45.3") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.