TheSnowman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 4:28 AM, SnowMan said: I think I saw something that mentioned this is when the GFS typically loses the storm....is that a possibility? Somewhat........nut not exactly. Usually - The GFS has a storm 8-9 days out. Loses it from 7-6 days out. Gains it back 5-4 Days out. Loses it 4-3 Days out and that's when we got NUTS. Then it comes back perfectly as it first was on Day 8 and 9. This is running the opposite unfortunately. Boxing Day Blizzard was like what I mentioned. Almost to a Tee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS ensemble mean looks way faster with getting the storm up the coast. Edit: Compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 4:45 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Uncle Ukie looks pretty good for us, now....after it's 12z horror show of a cutter....suspect the GEM follows suite. Did it slow the storm compared to the other 00z model runs? Over Virginia at 144 per UK Met versus gone on the GFS at that time? I probably am reading all this wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 4:35 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm confident that the ens will still be near the BM, but I suppose that they could lose it, too for now. On 1/22/2011 at 4:51 AM, Snow88 said: Ensemble mean Bingo. Uk and GEM ops have come east, now I look toward the EURO to start the inevitable transition to more of a Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Quote Uk and GEM ops have come east, now I look toward the EURO to start the inevitable transition to more of a Miller B. Ray, wasnt the GEM the furthest west last run? Good sign if its trending east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 5:04 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Bingo. Uk and GEM ops have come east, now I look toward the EURO to start the inevitable transition to more of a Miller B. yeah you guys are golden for this one hope you're taking pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 5:06 AM, DavisStraight said: Ray, wasnt the GEM the furthest west last run? Good sign if its trending east. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GEM is still a hugger going inland at the NY bight but well east of 12Z. Loving the trend now. And loving the fact that the op GFS is OTS a bit. Nogaps is a major hit. What did the uncle say beyond d3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 5:22 AM, weathafella said: GEM is still a hugger going inland at the NY bight but well east of 12Z. Loving the trend now. And loving the fact that the op GFS is OTS a bit. Nogaps is a major hit. What did the uncle say beyond d3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 5:22 AM, weathafella said: GEM is still a hugger going inland at the NY bight but well east of 12Z. Loving the trend now. And loving the fact that the op GFS is OTS a bit. Nogaps is a major hit. What did the uncle say beyond d3? Ukie is a benchmark track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 5:26 AM, dendrite said: Thanks Bryan. Doesn't get any more classic map wise for a blizzard with that deep vortex near the BM and the strong HP feeding and holding cold. Too bad it's the uncle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I don't really have any opinion on this storm yet except to say - persistence says another NE hit. Disturbing to see that Ray is 2.5"ahead of me on season snowfall now. On 1/22/2011 at 5:28 AM, weathafella said: Thanks Bryan. Doesn't get any more classic map wise for a blizzard with that deep vortex near the BM and the strong HP feeding and holding cold. Too bad it's the uncle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 5:36 AM, Logan11 said: I don't really have any opinion on this storm yet except to say - persistence says another NE hit. Disturbing to see that Ray is 2.5"ahead of me on season snowfall now. I think I'm ahead of you also ....probably 50-55 so far. BOS near 50 (49.6) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Lack of great excitement here so far, but nickel and dimes add up. Snow depth must average at least 15 inches now. Drifts of over 3 feet abound on the edges of the fields. I guess the last day to hit 32F was back when we had that brief torch around New Years. On 1/22/2011 at 5:42 AM, weathafella said: I think I'm ahead of you also ....probably 50-55 so far. BOS near 50 (49.6) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Funny that ORH, Boston and I are all in essentially a dead-heat @ ~50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 MEX snow numbers are huge for this time frame...a 2 and an 8 here. Hopefully that bodes as a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 5:55 AM, ORH_wxman said: MEX snow numbers are huge for this time frame...a 2 and an 8 here. Hopefully that bodes as a good sign. Interesting how the models have actually been pretty persistent in advertising a pretty big event this far out...especially in the face of numerous short waves moving through the flow...with the main one not even out of the PAC yet. The headaches will come though...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 5:47 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Funny that ORH, Boston and I are all in essentially a dead-heat @ ~50". You and I have pretty much gotten the same in every event...save maybe a few variations....BOS beat us by 6" in Boxing day storm but we beat them by 6" to even it out in the Jan 12 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 5:55 AM, ORH_wxman said: MEX snow numbers are huge for this time frame...a 2 and an 8 here. Hopefully that bodes as a good sign. Could you pleace explain what this means....thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 5:56 AM, Arnold214 said: Interesting how the models have actually been pretty persistent in advertising a pretty big event this far out...especially in the face of numerous short waves moving through the flow...with the main one not even out of the PAC yet. It seems the long wave pattern is very favorable, so perhaps that limits the delicacy of each shortwave impacting the setup (i.e. a small difference in the shortwave won't mean too much in the scheme of things...more margin for error) Tip actually made some good points in his thread he started. Almost everything is pointing toward a big trough on the east coast for the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 5:58 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Couil you pleace explain what this means....thx. Its the MOS for extended range GFS...8 means >8" and 2 means 2-4"...so the MEX snow numbers are for 2-4" one period and then >8" the next period which is quite a robust signal given the time range we are working with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 6:00 AM, ORH_wxman said: Its the MOS for extended range GFS...8 means >8" and 2 means 2-4"...so the MEX snow numbers are for 2-4" one period and then >8" the next period which is quite a robust signal given the time range we are working with. I figured...thx. Jerry has a MOS fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro looks quite a bit sharper than 12z...out to 78h. I wonder if we get a more inland solution this run or if it won't matter too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 6:10 AM, ORH_wxman said: Euro looks quite a bit sharper than 12z...out to 78h. I wonder if we get a more inland solution this run or if it won't matter too much. It looks like it could run right up the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 6:11 AM, CoastalWx said: It looks like it could run right up the coastline. We need 5h to dig like a backhoe ala Dec '92...0C 850 line already into S NJ at 96h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NYC and SW CT raining by 108h...might not be the prettiest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 6:18 AM, ORH_wxman said: NYC and SW CT raining by 108h...might not be the prettiest run. Good thing CT Blizz is in bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Man it is really wrapped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Trying to hang on at 114h...850 0C line about from South Weymouth to Kevin....snow like crazy north of that line though. Getting hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 6:20 AM, ORH_wxman said: Trying to hang on at 114h...850 0C line about from South Weymouth to Kevin....snow like crazy north of that line though. Getting hammered I like the sound of this for KLEB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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