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Pattern beyond Jan 21st


Ginx snewx

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  On 1/21/2011 at 8:58 PM, SnowMan said:

That track seems to show the 850's are cold enough right or am I reading that wrong?

With a track shown there, you'd probably see the 0C 850 line creep up into coastal SNE areas. I'm sure Scott/Will probably could give you a better answer since they have access to better Euro Ensm. images.

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  On 1/21/2011 at 8:46 PM, messenger said:

FWIW, Kev and I worked out our differences in PM. We're not bad people, just intense, passionate, overtired, and sometimes cantankerous.

I'll say it again, if we've all got problems with one another, posting styles, comments made, whatever....just fire away and PM and get it all cleared up. Nobody here is an unreasonable person and we can always work things out.

With that said I'm going to buy some new unbrellas so I can enjoy the rest of these winter storms.....

is it snowing there?

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  On 1/21/2011 at 9:11 PM, Ginx said:

you are right, nam is faster by a full day and a half

I think you right the first time Ginx lol....it's slightly faster...but the Euro also has an inverted trough off the southeast coast at 96 hours. The main storm on the NAM and on the Euro is off the coast of Louisiana with the trough/vort over Texas.

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  On 1/21/2011 at 9:17 PM, OSUmetstud said:

I think you right the first time Ginx lol....it's slightly faster...but the Euro also has an inverted trough off the southeast coast at 96 hours. The main storm on the NAM and on the Euro is off the coast of Louisiana with the trough/vort over Texas.

I knew that LOL

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  On 1/21/2011 at 9:21 PM, Ginx said:

GGEM ENS are way out by the BM op GGEM fail

2 members support the Op run at 132...they all argue the Op is too slow as well....the same thing happened with this storm last week when the GEM had the low tracking over NYC and inland SE Mass.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=132&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm

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  On 1/21/2011 at 9:23 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

2 members support the Op run at 132...they all argue the Op is too slow as well....the same thing happened with this storm last week when the GEM had the low tracking over NYC and inland SE Mass.

http://www.weatherof...ime=12&Type=pnm

Is it just me or is it that whenever there is a big east coast storm the 144 GGEM puts it way inland somewhere? I don't think I've ever seen a big huge low on the 144 GGEM on the benchmark...it's always out west.

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  On 1/21/2011 at 9:23 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

2 members support the Op run at 132...they all argue the Op is too slow as well....the same thing happened with this storm last week when the GEM had the low tracking over NYC and inland SE Mass.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=132&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm

I'd say the odds for a big storm are pretty good, lets hope it takes an ENS mean path,

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_small_e.html?datecour=2011-01-21&dateprev=2011-01-27&heure=12&type=PR

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  On 1/21/2011 at 9:25 PM, messenger said:

Is it just me or is it that whenever there is a big east coast storm the 144 GGEM puts it way inland somewhere? I don't think I've ever seen a big huge low on the 144 GGEM on the benchmark...it's always out west.

this year theyve been all east usually, or else i would have noticed.

i was surprised to see it so far inland

track off the coast south of new england and towards nova scotia, ho hum just another day

lock it up

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  On 1/21/2011 at 9:25 PM, messenger said:

Is it just me or is it that whenever there is a big east coast storm the 144 GGEM puts it way inland somewhere? I don't think I've ever seen a big huge low on the 144 GGEM on the benchmark...it's always out west.

It usually does but this year it had been generally progressive and I think the -NAO had some factor to that combined with the La Nina...the last event though for the first time all year when we had a +NAO the GEM showed its bias and it may showing it again...its been correct before with these, most notably the 2/25 storm last year when it showed a 970mb low over Rhode Island at Day 9.

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