WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 36 hrs on the 00z RGEM -- http://www.weatherof...ast/513_100.gif Probably 3mm... 4 if you are more toward BWI -- which is 0.10-0.15 area wide Is this an improvement? Same? Worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 See that storm off the coast at 78 on the NAM? I think we want that thing to explode and head north to help lock the cold in for our next system I'll take my chances with the cold air - just give me some decent precip for a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Why is everyone acting like the NAM is so crazy? It now agrees with the Euro, which has the best QPF verification scores at this range. Expect the GFS to agree. I know Wes likes the SREFs, but they have mostly been garbage lately. We'll find out in about 25 minutes. I guess we really don't know until tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Why is everyone acting like the NAM is so crazy? It now agrees with the Euro, which has the best QPF verification scores at this range. Expect the GFS to agree. I know Wes likes the SREFs, but they have mostly been garbage lately. People should not rely on ensembles as their main means of forecasting IMO. They have been abused by amateurs a lot this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Why is everyone acting like the NAM is so crazy? It now agrees with the Euro, which has the best QPF verification scores at this range. Expect the GFS to agree. I know Wes likes the SREFs, but they have mostly been garbage lately. I was really hoping I would have to eat crow on this one. I wish I was wrong more often when I go against snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 After being in the low 50's today and probably above freezing tonight and most of tomorrow, unless the precip is heavy- which doesn't seem likely around here, I really can't see this amounting to really anything, even with a nighttime event. so whether we get .10 or .15 probably won't matter all that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I was really hoping I would have to eat crow on this one. I wish I was wrong more often when I go against snow. I'm pretty sure you were not the only one who realized this event is problematic. LWX might not have gotten the memo but they seem to like to overforecast snow lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm pretty sure you were not the only one who realized this event is problematic. LWX might not have gotten the memo but they seem to like to overforecast snow lately. I do not think that, sorry if it came off that way. Just saying it seems that when I am wrong it is usually when i predict snow, not when I go against it. Wish it was the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 this is the worst event in my 11 years of posting on weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm pretty sure you were not the only one who realized this event is problematic. LWX might not have gotten the memo but they seem to like to overforecast snow lately. I think I called it first once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I do not think that, sorry if it came off that way. Just saying it seems that when I am wrong it is usually when i predict snow, not when I go against it. Wish it was the other way around. Fair enough. I liked this ever early but it was a different type of event initially. More proof looking at a d7 storm is mostly futile if you (global) are looking for clear answers about anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 this is the worst event in my 11 years of posting on weather Don't you say that about every storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 at 12hrs, GFS is already drier with precip in central plainsvs. 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think I called it first once again. Anyone who has a basic understanding of what we want at midlvls etc could see the NAM solution coming whether or not it is right. And the Euro is still a good model unfortunately. It has been pretty steady here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 this is the worst event in my 11 years of posting on weather at least you were here amongst friends to help guide you through it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Fair enough. I liked this ever early but it was a different type of event initially. More proof looking at a d7 storm is mostly futile if you (global) are looking for clear answers about anything. I never liked it, even from day 7 when it looked good at the surface it was a total sh*t show at H5. I am done playing that game this year. That is what is different about the threat next week, the H5 track is actually far enough south for a change that we might have a shot. Its not a perfect setup and its still 6 days out but we at least have a chance. In reality these other systems we never did because the H5 track just was no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 OK Hoffman, there's your southern phasing some on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If you are in the n/w suburbs I dont know what your freaking about. We will still see an inch or two of snow. Which is all this event was ever going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 gfs same as 18z on precip for dc/va not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 wow, GFS might be good at 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Hr. 30 GFS qpf 6 hrs DCA & BWI-.o8" IAD-.10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 OK Hoffman, there's your southern phasing some on the GFS Its certainly better then the NAM but not perfect, it does leave a little energy behind the base of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 wow, GFS looks good. Note: Compared to the NAM. IF it didnt hold that energy back a bit, we'd be quite alright for 3-4." Good to see the NAM is hopefully OTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS looks pretty good, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS looks pretty good, I think. nice UVV's over us at 3o hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow, wasn't expecting this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 qpf totals thru 36 BWI-.23" DCA-.21" IAD-.19" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I never liked it, even from day 7 when it looked good at the surface it was a total sh*t show at H5. I am done playing that game this year. That is what is different about the threat next week, the H5 track is actually far enough south for a change that we might have a shot. Its not a perfect setup and its still 6 days out but we at least have a chance. In reality these other systems we never did because the H5 track just was no good. I guess I wasn't paying attention 7 days out. 4 or 5 ago it looked like mainly overrunning potential to our south. Then the northern stream started to assert it's bad self again and it all went to hell. I get where you are at for next week but part of me thinks some lessons of this yr will hold true and even if we get a vort to play withthe northern stream will shred it. It's just too busy still even if the pattern is a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Good run, as i said. Hopefully we gain some ground back towards the past as we head towards game time. 2-4'' final call for Baltimore NE. Factors: ratios will be 11-14:1 and the QPF is about .25 it looks like for me (KMTN) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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